Our country being what it is, we have always pretended that we share values with the Saudi regime, but we don’t. The fact is that our relationship has been based on two tangible things: our mutual interest in keeping the oil flowing; and our desire for political stability in the area.
Both of these are under threat. The Saudis no longer have the kind of market power that they did, say, ten years ago. And, to make matters worse, the Saudis are no longer a force for stability; their foreign policy has become much more aggressive without the means to implement it, unless the US is willing to serve as the tip of the Sunni spear.
It is clear that President Obama wants to free us of our dependence on this relationship, and to put us in a position where we have the ability to cooperate with both the Saudis and the Iranians to maintain regional stability on a case-by-case basis. Iraq alone makes this necessary, and Syria may ultimately follow.
Where is this going in the long run? If Clinton wins in November, it is likely that we will go back to being a gendarme for the de facto Israeli/Saudi alliance. If Trump wins, Obama’s skepticism about these relationships will look mild compared to the changes that are coming.