It isn’t clear after New Hampshire that Rubio is going to be the consensus establishment choice, but, for purposes of argument, let’s assume that he is. The candidates at that point will be limited to a social conservative (Cruz), an unpredictable wild card (Trump), and Rubio. This starts sounding a lot like the 2012 campaign, with Cruz playing the role of Santorum, Trump standing in for Gingrich, and Rubio playing Romney, the eventual winner. It sounds promising for Marco. But is it?
There are several differences between 2012 and today:
1. Cruz is a stronger campaigner than Santorum. He has far more money and a connection with evangelicals that eluded Santorum.
2. Trump is a much more formidable opponent than Gingrich. Gingrich never had the kind of following that Trump has today.
3. The GOP electorate has moved further to the right since 2012. The Reactionary component of the party is larger than ever.
4. Marco doesn’t fit the GOP as well as Romney did. Yes, Romney had the Romneycare millstone around his neck, but Marco has immigration, and the two are a wash. Romney looked like Reagan, was fairly good at swaggering, and had lots of executive experience. He fit the GOP vision of a nominee far better than Marco does.
5. Romney had his lane to himself from the beginning. By the time Marco clears out his opposition, it may well be too late.