About six weeks ago, there was reason to believe that the Obama Administration’s determination to be patient and engage with our adversaries was being rewarded in the Middle East. The Iran deal was a breakthrough on its own terms, and opened the possibility that we could pick our allies in the future instead of being stuck with them. In addition, there were lots of stories about diplomatic activity involving ourselves, the Saudis, and the Russians, which suggested that we might, in fact, be able to create a less beastly Syrian government and subsequently a united front to crush IS.
All that is in ruins as a result of Putin’s decision to double down on his support of Assad. I will address his motives for that in a future post. The bottom line is that he is now the leader of a Shiite axis which includes Iran, Hezbollah, the Iraqi government, and the Syrian government. The best case scenario for us now is deadlock, years of agony for the Syrian people, and more refugees, because a negotiated solution is impossible for the foreseeable future. The worst case is the Russians and their allies slowly, and at great cost to the population, gain control over all of Syria and Iraq, and we do nothing to stop them. Our credibility with our Sunni allies would thereby be destroyed, and we would be almost friendless in an area of great strategic importance.
The Obama Administration apparently is basing its current policy on the best case scenario. At some point, the dangers inherent in action are less troubling than the dangers presented by inaction. I believe that point has been reached. In spite of the complexities and perils that we may face, it is time to no-fly.