At the beginning of the 2012 campaign, I predicted the GOP race would turn into a battle between Romney and not Romney, and that not Romney had slightly more votes, but would only prevail if the votes went to a single person. My prediction essentially turned out to be correct. The not Romney vote was split between Gingrich and Santorum, and Romney won.
Based on his record, Rick Perry was the strongest Reagan Coalition candidate in the race in 2012, and he should have won the nomination. In retrospect, Romney’s gambit of attacking him from the right on immigration was the masterstroke that divided the Reagan Coalition and ultimately resulted in Romney’s victory.
While the characters in the 2016 race may seem eerily familar (suggested title for the revived musical–“The GOP At Sea”), the dynamics are different, for the following reasons:
- Jeb! clearly believed that he, like Romney, would be the undisputed master of the CD and PBP factions when he decided to enter the race. Rubio’s decision to run, and early success, means that he will have to fight for those votes, probably for the entire duration of the campaign. That in turn improves the chances of the winner of the Reagan Coalition subprimary and increases the likelihood that the party will go into the convention without a clear leader.
- The faithful are even angrier than they were in 2012, which makes the nomination of an outsider more plausible.
- Trump drew the correct conclusions from Romney’s success on immigration, and has flourished as a result. He has more staying power than his 2012 partner in outrageousness, Michele Bachmann, and has exposed the party’s fault lines at every turn. Since he is self-financed, he will likely be a factor, even with diminished numbers, until the end of the race.
I can guess the finalists at this point, but not the winner. This is going to be fascinating.