The Chinese are having a huge military parade today to celebrate the victory of Communist forces over the Japanese colonialists in 1945. Of course, there are a few small problems with this narrative:
- While the Chinese suffered horrific losses during the war and contributed to the anti-Japanese effort by tying up troops, the decisive blows were inflicted not by them, but by the Americans.
- The Communist contribution to the war effort was relatively minimal. The vast majority of the losses were borne by the Nationalists.
Oh, well. I’m sure it was a great show. And it was timely, too, in light of the government’s recent economic failures, which have to be causing consternation (and, in all likelihood, some infighting) at the highest levels of the Communist Party.
China is a one-party state, but that doesn’t mean that debate disappears–it is just driven underground. Look for the following in the next few weeks:
- Don’t be surprised if we see some wag-the-dog nationalism in an effort to change the subject from the market correction.
- It will be interesting to see what, if anything, happens with the anti-corruption campaign. If the number of “tigers” being prosecuted drops significantly, it will suggest that Xi’s support in the party has declined as a result of recent events. If it increases, that could mean infighting has increased. If nothing happens, then it is business as usual.