You’re Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the SNP. The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence failed by a fairly narrow margin, but you won a very substantial victory in the general election that followed. Scottish independence within the EU is your ultimate objective.
David Cameron cannot rely on his hold on the Conservative Party to win the EU referendum, so he is going to be calling for assistance from the leaders of the other parties. Labour is a mess, and cannot be counted on for anything, which makes your position all the more important. If the voters opt out of the EU, your argument for a second independence referendum becomes infinitely stronger. Do you:
- Give unconditional support to the government’s position to stay in the EU, and thereby damage your case for independence?
- Oppose the government’s position in the interests of strengthening your argument for independence, and thereby expose yourself to allegations of opportunism and hypocrisy?
- Attempt to barter your support for the referendum in exchange for new powers in Scotland, or even a second independence referendum?
- Take an equivocal position in public and hope your supporters will understand they should vote tactically against EU membership?
I would bet on #3 or #4, but this will be very interesting.