On the Obama Doctrine

It’s a process, not an ideology, and every litigation lawyer is familiar with it.  When confronted with an issue, you ask the following questions:

1.  What are my chances of attaining a successful outcome?

2.  What do I have to gain?

3.  What is my exposure?

Based on the answers to these questions, you identify the course of action that is the most likely to accomplish most of what you want at the least amount of cost and risk.  Typically, this involves settlement, because going to trial leads to an unacceptable element of unpredictability.

This is a case-by-case form of analysis that has no appeal to people who view the world in black and white terms.   It also rarely results in anything like total victory.  On the other hand, it makes complete disasters very unlikely, and is extremely cost-effective.

Hence, the preference for diplomacy, the use of proxies, and the emphasis on small-scale military actions (drones, special forces, etc.) in lieu of costlier and riskier large-scale interventions.