The Romney Coalition subprimary candidates are Bush, Rubio, Christie, and Kasich. The last two are not serious contenders: Christie just carries way too much baggage; and Kasich appears to be well on the way to winning the Jon Huntsman Memorial Worthy Candidate With No Public Support Award. The winner will be either Bush or Rubio.
This is going to be fascinating. Bush has a substantial advantage in fundraising and establishment backing, but how is that going to translate into popular support? How can he tailor his message to distinguish himself from Rubio, who comes from the same state, was part of the same state government, has similar policy positions, and has an even stronger connection to the Hispanic community?
Rubio’s greatest points of vulnerability are his executive inexperience and lack of swagger. My guess is that Bush will run plenty of commercials that look similar to Hillary’s 2008 3 AM phone call ad in order to emphasize this point. Whether that will work or not remains to be seen.
Rubio, on the other hand, profits from the fact that Jeb! can spend a billion, or ten billion, dollars on ads, but it won’t change his last name or his connection to his unpopular brother, with whom he has no apparent policy disagreements. The Rubio campaign doesn’t really need to do anything to exploit this advantage, but expect to see plenty of commercials talking about fresh ideas, even though he doesn’t really seem to have any other than to encourage college students to fund their education by becoming indentured servants. He also appears to have enough money to be in the fight for the long run, which could, at a minimum, be of great benefit to the winner of the Reagan Coalition subprimary.
Much will be riding on the Bush tax cut plan, whenever it is unveiled, which presumably will be before the debate. Will Jeb! attempt to outbid Rubio by providing even greater tax cuts to the wealthy, as his business establishment backers will probably be demanding, or will he make more of an effort to help working class voters to create some ideological distance between himself and the other candidates? I am betting on the former. Stay tuned.