To the Republican voter, every election is 1980. The Democratic candidate is Jimmy Carter–overly intellectual, weak, and overwhelmed by events; the Republican, of course, is Ronald Reagan. The purpose of the primaries, therefore, is to anoint the latest incarnation of Reagan.
The new Reagan should obviously look as much as possible like the old one; he should have a commanding presence and as much charisma as possible and be visibly free from any sort of doubt about the correctness of his ideology. To put it in a single word, the Republican nominee has to have swagger.
Who among the candidates best meets this description? Jeb Bush has the physical presence, but lacks Reagan’s ability to project strength and certainty. Chris Christie and Donald Trump have plenty of swagger (it is probably their biggest asset in this forum), but a host of other liabilities. Marco Rubio’s most memorable public moment came when he ducked off camera for a water bottle. Scott Walker is a certified butt-kicker, but my dining room set has more charisma than he does. Ted Cruz swaggers, but comes across as being very negative. The others? Forget it.
So who wins? I don’t know, but this is a huge problem for Rubio. I think his lack of swagger disqualifies him regardless of his other assets.