Cromwell

The great would-be emperor Xi

Arrived in the land of the free

To talk with our leaders.

“The Chinese aren’t cheaters,”

He said, a bit facetiously.

Carson isn’t going to be the nominee–he has way too little experience to run a successful nationwide campaign.  He is extremely important to the GOP faithful, however, because, in their eyes, his presence in the race proves two things:

1.  The GOP is not a racist party.
2.  Their success in life was due solely to their own hard work, not to any advantages provided by birth.   Yes, maybe some people start a bit behind, but if they’re not lazy and shiftless, they can make it, too.  Look at Ben Carson–he did it! So don’t ask me for money for free stuff for the poor;  what they need is tough love, not a government hammock.

Our efforts to isolate Cuba over the last fifty-odd years have had the following impacts:

1.  We have provided a built-in excuse to the Castros for their economic failures;
2.  We have actually isolated ourselves, rather than the Cubans, diplomatically in  Latin America; and
3.  Our citizens have been deprived of valuable business and cultural opportunities.

There is no evidence with which I am familiar that suggests that these negatives were offset by human rights improvements on the island.  As a result, then, it is fair to say that the policy has been fully tested over a long period of time, and is a complete failure.

President Obama clearly views things this way, and wants to normalize relations as quickly as possible.  The hope obviously is that diplomatic and economic engagement will ultimately bring improvements to the system in Cuba, but whether it does or not, the immediate objective is to eliminate the down sides to the current policy that are identified above.

Marco Rubio’s objection to normalization is that we are not getting enough human rights concessions in return.  In other words, he apparently believes we should continue to shoot ourselves in the foot until the Castros pay us to stop.  As a negotiating tactic, this reminds me of the scene with the newly-appointed sheriff and the white lynch mob in “Blazing Saddles,” with the exception that the Castros aren’t nearly as dumb as the mob.

There once was a Speaker named John.

Who struggled to keep the lights on.

The Tea Party said

Our trust in you is dead

Is all hope of compromise gone?

When Boehner starts looking for a lucrative lobbying job, he can put “cat herder” on his resume.

As everyone who reads Douthat’s column and blog in the Times knows, he is a conservative Catholic who believes that Benedict was unjustly maligned in the press and views Francis with a large degree of suspicion.  I obviously have never met either individual (I doubt Douthat has, either), but my take on the two is as follows:

Benedict strikes me as being sort of a cross between Dostoyevsky’s Grand Inquisitor and Dick Cheney–a man who went through the motions of claiming to love God and mankind, but whose real love was the rules, which he enforced with great enthusiasm (he is German, after all).  He then felt sorry for himself when he was criticized for it.  Can you imagine him, in a different time, burning heretics?  You bet you can.  You can practically smell the burning flesh on him.

Francis doesn’t come across that way at all.  His love of God and mankind are conspicuously genuine.  He has doubts about his own wisdom.  He enforces the rules because it is his job, not because he gets a special kick out of it.  Instead of drawing lines in the sand to keep unworthy people out, he erases as many as he can to bring people in.

Oh, and one additional note for Ross–it is clear that you are a Catholic because you are a conservative, and not the other way around.  If you ever have a chance to read this, you might want to ponder the implications of that point.

 

Ross Douthat has a lengthy posting in yesterday’s times in which he reflects on the papal visit and muses about whether we are a Christian, a post-Christian, or a secular country.  I don’t disagree with many of his observations, but I don’t think he has a firm grasp of the Christian/post-Christian/secular issue, so I am here to help him out.

There are three ways of viewing the issue:

1.  There is no doubt in my mind that the American public still has a profound respect for Christian traditions.  They are so intertwined in our culture that we barely even notice them except on special occasions.   Since the Pope, regardless of who he is, embodies Christian tradition, any papal visit is bound to be greeted with enthusiasm.
2. It is also clear to me that the American public still embraces Christian ethics involving person-to-person conduct.  You don’t realize how profound the conflicts are between pagan and Christian ethics until you have made an effort to immerse yourself in pagan culture.   Francis, with his emphasis on simplicity, modesty, and open-mindedness, does a far better job of displaying Christian virtues than his predecessor–hence his greater popularity.
3. Christian doctrine on other (particularly metaphysical) issues is a different story.  The differences between Christian doctrine and the views of the American public go far beyond the nearly sublime inanity of Catholic positions on sex and contraception.  Does anyone really believe the the majority of Americans believe that:

a. By virtue of the Apostolic Succession, a priest has the magical power to turn bread and wine into the body of Christ?

b. The statements in the Book of Genesis regarding the origins of the universe, the beginning of life on earth, and the fall of mankind are true, even in a metaphorical sense, given the state of the empirical data?

c.  Salvation is in any way dependent on upon compliance with cultural norms established by a small group of people in the Middle East thousands of years ago?

d.  The nature of God was firmly identified for all time at a meeting that took place over a millenium ago?

Just to name a few.  The answer to that question is “Not bloody likely.”  And so, in response to the initial query, I would say that the US remains a Christian country in many respects, but is post-Christian in others, and the papal visit has no long-term implications for the credibility and popular acceptance of Christian doctrine.

There once was a pontiff named Francis

Who took pro-environment stances.

While he drew a large crowd

And the public was wowed

On his doctrine, I don’t like his chances.

Republicans are getting the day off.  They will be back tomorrow.

“I’m a scientist, man.”

The candidates named Ted and Mike

Make statements that centrists don’t like.

Their views are extreme

They’re as bad as they seem

They make you stand up and say “yikes!”

To their proposed wars with the Supreme Court and Iran, America politely says “No thanks.”

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

Jeb! clearly agonized over his decision to run, because he knew that everything about his candidacy would infuriate the Reactionaries, and he would pay a heavy price for it.  In the long run, however, he believed that his establishment connections would make him the undisputed leader of the Romney Coalition, and that the GOP was insufficiently suicidal to nominate a Reactionary.   He would, therefore, lose some battles along the way, but he would win the war, just as Romney did, and the Reactionaries would fall in line in order to defeat Hillary.

Two things have happened to upset these calculations:

1.  Rubio decided to run, and has made a surprisingly strong showing during the debates.  This means that Jeb!’s control of the Romney factions is very much in doubt.  Furthermore, he has few effective lines of attack against his former little buddy other than lack of executive experience.  Rubio’s great weakness in this process is his apostacy on immigration, but Jeb! is in no position to talk about that.
2. Trump is destroying him during the debates.  Every time I see the two of them together, I am reminded of the scene in “The Last Emperor” in which the eunuchs are forced to leave the Forbidden City carrying their testicles in boxes.   He doesn’t look like a winner, and PBPs have no time for losers (they are pragmatists, after all).

If Jeb! were any other candidate, his donors would already be scurrying off to Rubio, and the chasm of irrelevance would loom ahead.  Since he already has a huge amount of money in the bank, however, he can go on indefinitely.

As I see it, his options are as follows:

1.  He can accept that Rubio is a better candidate and quit.  Given his pedigree and financial resources, that won’t happen.
2. He can focus his attention and resources on destroying Trump.  Since Trump’s supporters won’t make him their second choice, this approach won’t help him get the nomination, but it would do wonders for his self-esteem.
3. He can start running lots of Rubio 3 AM phone call commercials and argue far more forcefully against Trump that he is the only qualified and electable candidate in the race.  In my opinion, that is his only realistic path left to the nomination.

The bottom line is that Rubio and Trump are to his campaign what Assad and ISIS are to American policy in Syria–the trick is to avoid helping one by destroying the other.  Can he thread the needle?  Based on what we have seen so far, you would have to say no.

Trump promises to make America great again.  My question is, when does he believe America was last great?

Was it:

During the George W. Bush administration?  Considering his opposition to the Iraq war and the presence of Jeb! in the race, certainly not.

During the Clinton administration?  You can make a really good argument that the late 1990’s were a golden age for our country.  The Soviet Union had imploded, China was not yet a problem, the Middle East was reasonably quiet, and the economy was growing very rapidly.  At the time, however, everyone was fixated on the scandal du jour and missed the big picture.  In any event, it would hardly do for Trump to say that America was last great when the husband of the likely Democratic nominee was president.

During the George H.W. Bush administration?  More problems with Jeb!’s candidacy, plus a big recession and “read my lips.”  No chance.

During the Reagan administration?  Trump doesn’t talk about Reagan as much as, say, Ted Cruz, but that would be my guess.  If so, America has been less than great for at least the last 27 years.  Where has he been all this time?  Why did he wait so long to save us from mediocrity?

Mourning the loss of Yogi Berra, an American treasure.

Pope Francis is, or at least should be, the intellectual leader of the Christian Democratic faction of the GOP.   Will they listen to him on issues like climate change and immigration?   Probably not, for two reasons:

1. The handful of CDs in Congress have a reasonable and legitimate difference of opinion with him about the merits of democratic capitalism; and
2. The CDs are a tiny minority within the GOP.  As a result, they are so accustomed to making deals with the other factions, they are barely even aware of it when they sell out.

I was preparing a post for today on the Evil Eagle Scout’s propensity for inept pandering to the various GOP factions (to be entitled “Why Scott Walker is a Wimp”) when he decided to ride his Harley into the sunset, to the dismay of none but the Koch brothers.

My initial assessment of his candidacy was that he was a one-trick pony with no charisma.  The initial Iowa polling made me question my judgment temporarily, but it ultimately proved to be correct.   Making union-bashing the focal point of his campaign, when the GOP needs plenty of union member votes to win, never made any sense.

He now assumes the 2012 role of Tim Pawlenty–the blandly obnoxious governor whose campaign peaked way too early and ended before the primaries began.   So long, Scott.  You won’t be missed.

 

The idea that a winning GOP coalition could be constructed from Conservative Libertarians and disaffected Independents and Democrats was never very plausible.  When issues involving surveillance were center stage in 2014, however, it appeared that, just perhaps, Rand Paul’s moment had finally come.  Then IS started beheading people, the GOP returned to its roots as the party that kicks butt overseas, and the dream faded away.

Paul is stuck in his father’s electoral ghetto.  His ceiling is around 10 percent, and my guess is that he knows it.  His campaign will be about gaining converts, not winning.