Cromwell

David Brooks wrote a column in the NYT about two weeks ago in which he argued that Cruz is not an insurgent, but rather a representative of an opposition establishment within the GOP.  Given the amount of money that Cruz has been able to raise from large donors even in the face of intense hostility from the GOP leadership, his position makes a lot of sense.

There is good reason to believe at this point that the support of the opposition establishment could be sufficient, if things break his way, to win Cruz the nomination.  Would it be adequate support for a victory in the general election? Could he actually govern without surrounding himself with figures from the traditional establishment?  I don’t think this group has sufficient assets and expertise to win and exercise power by itself, which means that Cruz will have to make his peace with the leadership ASAP if he gets the nomination.

2015 wasn’t a great year for the Chinese, either.  These were some of the main storylines:

1.  Declining growth rates as the government attempts the difficult task of rebalancing the economy.

2.  A major market correction which damaged the prestige of the government and raised questions about its acceptance of a market economy and its ability to manage one.

3.  Large industrial accidents also raised questions about the honesty and competence of the government, particularly at local levels.

4.  An opening to Russia didn’t accomplish much, at least in the short run.

5.  Aggressive actions in the South China Sea prompted a push back by the affected parties:  Japan improved its relations with South Korea and India; the TPP was signed; and the US continued to assert the right of free navigation in the area.

6.  Xi consolidated his power, while the anti-corruption campaign expanded.

7.  Cooperation with the US and other countries on climate change improved, and resulted in the Paris Agreement.

The main issues for 2016 are whether the government can successfully balance the needs of a dynamic market economy (regulatory neutrality; respect for property rights; the free flow of information) with the Communist Party’s desire to exercise arbitrary power, and what consequences will flow from the ongoing dredge and fill projects in the South China Sea.

There is an interesting article in the latest Atlantic in which David Frum, among other things, sets out four alternative courses for the GOP in 2016.  Option 1 is the Romney Coalition with a more persuasive standard bearer than Bush (i.e., Rubio); Option 2 is the Reagan Coalition (that would be Cruz); and Option 4 is the Reactionary agenda with regulatory changes to limit voting participation among prospective Democrats (not happening).  Option 3 is clearly his preference, and I would identify it as the Christian Democrat agenda, which is not really espoused by any of the candidates (Kasich has his CD moments, but his tax and spending plans are clearly PBP). The question for today is, why is this agenda currently off the table?

I would suggest three reasons:

1.  “Compassionate conservatism” was discredited by Bush 43:  George W. Bush was unique in that he had strong ties to the Reactionaries (his evangelical religion), the PBPs (tax cuts, deregulation, bailouts), and the CDs.  Of these, only the “compassionate conservatism” element has been repudiated by the mainstream of the party, partially because it was connected to his pro-democracy activism in the Middle East.  As a result, the GOP has lurched to the right, and the CD faction has diminished substantially.

2.  The CDs don’t have any enforcers:  The Reactionaries have a host of right-wing talk show hosts and evangelical ministers to maintain discipline.  The PBPs have the WSJ.  The CDs have. . .David Brooks, Ross Douthat, and Michael Gerson. That’s it.  They don’t scare anyone, and Douthat is so eager to make deals with any faction that will oppose abortion that he can barely remember he is a CD.

3.  The Reactionary faction has been substantially strengthened in numbers by former “Reagan Democrats”:  Current polling makes it clear just how far to the right the party has moved over the last few years, and, demographically speaking, that is the reason.  Angry white male blue collar workers do not become CDs.

 

 

I have seen several articles recently which question why the GOP establishment hasn’t done more to embrace Rubio in light of the clear and present danger from Trump and Cruz.  The more urgent issue for the establishment is why the insurgents in the race are outpolling the insiders by 2:1, but, leaving that aside, here are some answers to the question:

1.  The Bush shock and awe campaign worked:  While Jeb! did not succeed in running off his competitors with his fundraising, he established relationships that his donors clearly consider to be binding unless and until his campaign completely runs aground, which probably won’t be until the Florida primary.

2.  Young men in a hurry shouldn’t be Republicans:  The GOP establishment has traditionally picked old white guys who have paid their dues.  Rubio doesn’t fit the bill.

3.  Rubio lacks swagger:  He has been more forceful in the debates than I expected, but he’s no Ronald Reagan.

The bottom line is that I expect the embrace to come eventually, but by that time, it may be too late.

If you lived in Ireland, things probably weren’t too bad.  Otherwise, you were faced with this unhappy list:  terrorism; the rise of right-wing populism; the Greek debacle; the refugee crisis; and pitifully slow growth.  In short, it was a year to forget.

2016 should be about dealing with the new normal.  The next crisis figures to be in 2017, with the Brexit referendum and the French election, which, in some ways, will be about Frexit.

The person whose career reminds me most of Hillary’s is the longstanding Queen of Pop.  How do they stack up?

                   Hillary     v.     Madonna

Ageism/Sexism      Prevailed        Prevailed

Marital Issues        Monica            Divorces

Reinventions         Each Campaign    Countless

Right-Wing Critics      Vast Conspiracy    Cultural Conservatives

Successful Impressions     SNL Sketches     “Born This Way”

 

And the winner is. . . Hillary.  She is the clear favorite in 2016.

As we know, Bernie advocates replacing Obamacare with a single-payer system that is based on Medicare and similar to systems throughout the rest of the world.  From a purely political perspective, his proposal is wildly impractical; it wasn’t even possible to include the public option in Obamacare when the Democrats had substantial majorities in both the House and the Senate.  It would also result in the elimination of countless thousands of jobs in the health care insurance business.  Let’s put those facts aside, however, and look at the merits of the proposal in a vacuum.

There are enormous advantages to single-payer if it is done properly.  Single-payer systems have much lower administrative costs (the other side of the coin is the elimination of all of those private sector jobs) and, by creating a national consumer cartel, do a far better job of keeping costs down on a service-by-service basis than our system does.  The problem is that someone has to pay for this;  the fact that Vermont tried and failed to institute a single-payer system is, or should be, a cautionary tale.

Sanders is vague on this subject, but it would appear that he believes he can pluck enough feathers from employers and the wealthy to pay for the new system.  I have two concerns about this:

1. Logically speaking, universal benefits should be paid for by all of society, not just a relative handful of people; and
2. The last thing we need to do in an era of globalization and technological change is to drive up the cost of labor.  A new employer payroll tax, therefore, would be a huge mistake, in my opinion.

    Christians and Pagans at Christmas

Can’t say I buy into the whole Christmas story.

But minus the details, the story rings true.

How would our lives change if we had stayed pagan?

What would it mean for me and for you?

 

The people of Rome had their reasons to think

The sun only shone on their city.

No value they placed on life outside their walls.

To others they showed little pity.

 

We’re all stuck together in this little boat.

A man’s just as good as his brother.

If there were no Christmas, I doubt we’d believe

We’re all bound to love one another.

 

Merry Christmas!

     The Two-Front War on Christmas

Secular humanist

Season must leave you pissed

Can’t tell you what you’ve missed

Must be off Santa’s list.

 

Stalwart of Christian right

You’re spoiling for a fight

Why are you so uptight?

Turn on the Christmas lights.

 

The War on Christmas is sort of like the War on Coal, except Christmas is winning.

It is 5:00 on December 24.  Bob Cratchit is working in his cubicle at Scrooge LLC when the boss, in “managing by walking around” mode, comes by.

BC:  Mr. Scrooge, sir.

S:  What is it (looks for nameplate on the cubicle) . . .Cratchit?

BC:  Can I please have tomorrow off, sir?

S:  Why?

BC:  Why, it’s Christmas, sir.

S:  Not in China, it isn’t.  How am I supposed to compete with those people and their low labor costs if I give people free time off?  As it is, Obama is killing me with taxes and regulations.

BC:  It’s just one day of the year, sir.  It’s important for me to be with my family.  I have a special needs child, you know.

Scrooge peers into the cubicle again and sees a photo of Tiny Tim.

S:  Is that him?

BC:  Yes, sir.

Scrooge hobbles around the office with an exaggerated limp.

BC:  He’s in really bad shape, sir.  Why are you making fun of him?

S:  I don’t have time for that political correctness crap.

BC:  You sound just like Donald Trump.

S:  Yes, it’s about time that someone who understands my problems ran for President.  He’s a winner, you know.  He’ll get rid of all of those new taxes and regulations and show people like me some respect.

BC:  What about health insurance?  Obamacare has been a lifesaver for Tiny Tim.

S:  He’ll get rid of that, too.  In this country you have to earn your health care.  Stand up for yourself and be a rugged individual!

BC:  But about Christmas?

S:  Oh, I suppose it would be a violation of some stupid federal regulation if I don’t give you the day off.  But you can work from home, so keep your phone on–I will send you some spreadsheets to analyze.

He thinks for a minute.

S:  Hey, there’s an idea!  You could be an independent contractor.  . .

If Trump wins the nomination, will the GOP establishment suck it up and support him?  I would say yes (albeit somewhat halfheartedly), for the following reasons:

1. You can’t overestimate the power of tribal loyalties.  Anyone who strays from the flock runs the risk of being excommunicated and left powerless.  Very few will be willing to accept that kind of risk.
2. There are important parts of Trump’s agenda with which the establishment agrees.  His tax cut plan, for example, is within the GOP mainstream.
3. The establishment can comfort itself with the thought that President Trump would have to surround himself in government with GOP mainstays, who would inevitably put limits on his ability to stray from the party line.

Then, when he loses, they can say they told us so, and everything will go back to normal.

I think it was Joe Biden who said that a typical Rudy Giuliani sentence included a noun, a verb, and 9/11.  We all know how far that got him in the primaries. However, at least the guy was dealing with real security issues in New York, so if anyone had a right to wrap himself in the bloody 9/11 flag, he did.

Chris Christie insists on portraying himself as a tireless terrorist fighter after 9/11, but the guy was a lawyer working in an office, not some sort of action hero. Of all of the bogus arguments I won’t miss when this campaign is over, this one is right at the top of the list.

What would a Cruz Administration look like?  Here are some educated guesses:

1. Fiorina would be his VP.  She is a logical choice because:  she is an experienced campaigner and debater; she is an outsider; she has no obvious policy disagreements with Cruz; she would bring some balance to the ticket; and she needs a job.
2. As everyone knows, the GOP Congressional leadership despises Cruz, so there would be some issues in the beginning.  However, having accomplished his goal of climbing over his elders to become President, Cruz would have every reason to try to accommodate the leadership, and the leadership, for its part, would be let loose in an ideological candy store.  In other words, the incentives for the GOP leaders to work together would outweigh any lingering personal issues.
3. Congress would pass, and Cruz would sign, a big tax cut bill, but it is unlikely to include the Cruz VAT proposal, which the leadership would view as being too politically risky.  The final version of the bill would look more like the proposals offered by Rubio, Trump, and Bush.
4. Cruz would roll back all of Obama’s regulations in his first few days in office.
5. Anti-abortion legislation would be passed in his first 100 days.
6. There would be large increases in the budget for border enforcement and for defense.  The practical implications of these increases in the real world would be close to zero.
7. The tone of American diplomacy would change dramatically.  Relations with our allies, other than Israel, will deteriorate quickly.  However, President Cruz will be, if anything, even less willing to commit American troops to foreign adventures than President Obama.
8. Cruz doesn’t appear to be emotionally wedded to entitlement cuts.  For political reasons, they would be put on the back burner.
9. Obamacare will be repealed in its entirety and replaced with. . .nothing.  The Kentucky gubernatorial race is proof to the GOP that they can take away the health insurance of millions of people without paying a political price for it.
10. The deficit will explode as a result of the tax cuts.  Spending on discretionary items will be cut to practically nothing.

Am I right?  Let’s hope we never find out.

An iPhone with a generous data plan

A subscription to Netflix

Adele’s “25”

The GOP hawk Lindsey Graham

Both Obama and Clinton he slammed.

He called for more troops

Claimed his foes were just dupes

The voters did not give a damn.