Cromwell

The AG-in-waiting Jeff Sessions.

To his critics Trump’s made no concessions.

On matters of race

He’s a very tough case.

He’ll use torture to get more confessions.

Ironically, the Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times” will apply to China itself in its dealings with the new Trump Administration.

On the down side, of course, you have the likelihood of a trade war, which would dramatically reduce Chinese exports and create some potential for social instability at home.  Trump’s temper and unpredictability also make an actual shooting war over slights to American pride a real possibility.  On the other hand, Trump’s lack of interest in human rights will be a distinct plus, his rejection of the TPP gives China a huge opening to create its own geopolitical rules in the Pacific Rim area, and his statements about protecting South Korea and Japan suggest that he will pull back from Asia and tolerate a Chinese sphere of influence there.  Finally, his unpredictability will damage American credibility throughout the world, and make stable Chinese leadership look like a viable alternative.

Yes, on balance, if Trump actually does what he promised to do, he will be making China, not America, great again.

Can Trump make America great?

We don’t have much longer to wait.

With his cuts and his wars

Our lives won’t be a bore

But the changes you’re likely to hate.

Trump has, of course, been bitterly critical of Obama’s Cuba diplomacy for opportunistic reasons.  Will he really attempt to renegotiate the deal when he takes office?

I doubt it.  Trump doesn’t care about human rights.  Cuba doesn’t sponsor terrorism or run a large trade surplus with the US.  There are plenty of business opportunities there for him and his friends.  Increasing the standard of living in Cuba can help prevent immigration.  In other words, there is every reason, from Trump’s perspective, to improve relations, and no reason to stop.  Expect this issue to die quietly.

Imagine that you are the Prime Minister of Iraq.  You are the head of a political system that was imposed by the invading Americans.  A substantial, but diminishing, part of your country is controlled by IS.  The Kurds are your nominal allies in the battle against IS, but their ultimate objective is independence.  The Turks want a slice of your country.  Iranian influence is very strong, but is opposed by everyone else.  A political solution satisfactory to both Shias and Sunnis is nowhere in sight, but is essential if your country is ever to operate as a functional whole.

Now, add to the mix a new American President who was bitterly critical of the invasion after the fact and continues to say that the US should take Iraq’s oil.   In all likelihood, the best you can hope for is a victory over IS before he takes office, and indifference thereafter.  It is, alas, much more likely that the chaos in your country will simply morph into different forms after the demise of IS, and you will no longer be able to rely on America for help.

Good luck:  you’re going to need it.

For Erdogan, Trump’s election creates a truly historic opportunity.  Expect him to take full advantage of it.

At some point during the next year, I anticipate that there will be a deal made by the Trump Administration, Putin, and Erdogan, to consist of the following:

1. Assad will remain in power in Syria indefinitely.  Elections will be held as a face-saving measure.
2. Erdogan is given a free hand to deal with all of his enemies.  This will include Kurdish military and political entities in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq.
3. The US agrees to deport Gulen.
4. All of the parties agree to work together to destroy IS in Syria and Iraq.  The “caliphate” will barely exist at that point, anyway.
5. All Iranian advisers are sent home, and Hezbollah troops are required to leave the country.

This will be presented by all of the parties as a huge victory over terrorists and Iran.  The big losers, of course, will be the remaining non-IS rebels in Syria and the Kurds everywhere, but Trump will view the Kurds as history’s losers, and will have no reservations about selling them out.  Democracy in Turkey will wither away; the real winner will be the authoritarian state.

The economy was roaring in 2000.  Unemployment was negligible, the DJIA was doing well, and the federal government was running a large surplus.  Wages were increasing at a rate not seen in years.  The US had no serious rivals abroad. It was a golden age, but nobody recognized it, because everyone’s attention was fixed on Bill Clinton, Monica, and the GOP.  We elected George W. Bush, and you know how that turned out.

Today, the unemployment rate is below 5 percent, the DJIA is at record levels, interest rates, gas prices, and inflation are very low, wages are finally beginning to increase at an acceptable rate, and we aren’t engaged in any large-scale land wars.  And so, we just elected a chaos agent.

I guess it figures.  What were those Joni Mitchell lyrics again?

There once was a woman named Hill.

She had both the way and the will.

She thought she would win

But her ear’s a bit tin

And the country is paying the bill.

For the Saudis, a Trump Administration is like the proverbial box of chocolates: they just don’t know what they’re getting.

On the one hand, Trump, like Obama but unlike Clinton, has openly expressed doubts about the kingdom’s value as an ally.  He has indicated that he would demand large payments from them for protection, and he clearly intends to abandon their Sunni surrogates in Syria.  On the other hand, he has also suggested that he plans to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, a course of action that could very well lead to a war between the US and the Saudis’ chief nemesis.

Which way will this go?  In all likelihood, Trump hasn’t given the issue much thought, so if he doesn’t know, neither does anyone else.  My guess is that the outcome will be dictated largely by his choice of advisers.  If he surrounds himself with members of the Republican foreign policy establishment, the Saudis will have less reason for concern.

Trump’s immediate priority is to get rid of IS.  Iran is an uneasy ally in that battle, so I would not expect him to take any immediate action on the nuclear deal after he takes office.  Once IS is gone, however, things may change.

Trump can’t expect any help from any of the other parties to the deal in the renegotiation process, so crippling sanctions are no longer a viable option.  The only credible threat he can make is war.  And what kind of war would that be? An invasion similar to Iraq, only on a much larger scale?  Given his after-the-fact position on the Iraq War, why would anyone take that seriously?

No, the most plausible threat he could make would be a nuclear strike.   Don’t be shocked if that happens.

Sarah Palin, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Perry have just left LaGuardia Airport.  They get into a cab.

CD:  Where are you going, folks?

PR:  Trump Tower, please.

SP:  We’re off to see the Wizard!

CD:  Huh?

SP:  He channeled the anger of all real Americans and got elected President. They call him the Wizard of Id.

RP:  What, like the old cartoon?  I don’t get it.

PR:  Of course you don’t.  That’s why you need his help.

The cab driver takes them through multi-cultural neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

SP:  Look at all of those strange people!  They don’t look like real Americans to me.  I bet not a one of them has ever shot a moose from a snowmobile.

MR:  You’re not in Alaska anymore, Sarah.

SP:  You betcha!

They pass a group of young men hanging out on a street corner.

PR:  Look at those lazy bums!  They’re just taking advantage of the hammock of dependency!  We need to cut their benefits, now!

MR:  Don’t you ever take a day off, Paul?

PR:  Never!  I can’t rest until I’ve taken away all of the benefits for the undeserving poor.  We need the money for the tax cuts for rich people, anyway.

MR:  Well, they don’t vote for us, so let it rip.

They arrive at Trump Tower, enter the building, and address the receptionist.

SP:  We’re here to see the Wizard!

R:  Who are you?

SP:  Four Republican celebrities!

R:  I’ll let him know you’re here.

Trump descends the famous gold escalator about fifteen minutes later.

DT:  You’re here to ask favors of me.  What do you want?

MR:  Courage!

RP:  A brain!

PR:  A heart!

SP:  To go back to Alaska!

DT:  You’re asking a lot of me.  He thinks for a minute, then turns to Perry and gives him a piece of paper.

RP:  What’s this?

DT:  A certificate of completion from Trump University.

RP:  Will that prove I’m smart?

DT:  Let me put it this way:  it’s worthless, but lots of people paid for it, and you got it for nothing.  That makes you smart.

RP:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

PR:  What about me?

DT:  Well, if you’ll agree with me to put off any cuts to Social Security and Medicare, you’ll prove you have a heart.  It’s in our best interests politically, anyway, so it doesn’t cost you anything.

PR:  OK.  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

MR:  And me?

Trump hands him a small box.

MR:  A box of condoms!  What does it mean?

DT:  You had the nerve to make fun of my size during one of the debates.  It proves you have courage.  Or, at least, you did for a short time.  Consider this a memento.

MR:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

SP:  And me?

DT:  Don’t you want to go back to Kansas?

SP:  No, Sam Brownback has run that state into the ground.  I just want to go home to Wasilla.

DT:  OK, you can have a ride on my private plane.

SP:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!  Isn’t that expensive?

DT:  Don’t worry about it.  My accountants will figure out a way to write it off.  It’s not like I pay taxes or anything.

Trump returns to his office on the escalator.  The others leave happy.

 

 

There’s a Joe Jackson song from “Night and Day II” in which the narrator refers to the need for “nonalcoholic whiskey and Giuliani charm.”  The idea, of course, was that “Giuliani charm” was an oxymoron.  Anyone who has ever seen Rudy on TV knows that it is true.

That is the man who is the apparent frontrunner for the job of Secretary of State: America’s chief diplomat and face to the world.  The truly revolting thing, however, is that he would actually be a better choice than his competitor, John Bolton, who would be pushing us into new wars all over the globe at the drop of a hat.

We’re going to have to hope that the Republicans in the Senate can force Trump to nominate someone more presentable.  Since Trump’s views on foreign policy are so far outside of the mainstream, that is far from a given.

For some inexplicable reason, Trump always plays this song at his rallies, but it fits much better in this context.

You Can’t Always Get What You Want

I saw you today post-election.

Devastated;  your eyes full of tears.

You were stunned at the voters’ defection.

Now the world just looks full of fear.

 

(Chorus)

You can’t always get what you want.

You can’t always get what you want.

You can’t always get what you want.

But if you try sometimes

You just might find

You get what you need.

 

I was standing in line at the polling station.

Trump folks to my left and my right.

I was looking forward to a celebration.

What I got was a really long night.

I went home and I turned on the TV

Expecting an ocean of blue.

It was islands of blue in a red sea.

And that’s when I finally knew.

 

(Chorus)

 

So where in the world do we go now?

Just hang on to what you believe.

We’ll just find a way through all this somehow.

It’s not like we all can just leave.

 

(Chorus)

 

Parody of “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” by the Rolling Stones.

I anticipate that Trump will wash his hands of the Palestinians early in his term and essentially give Netanyahu a free hand to do whatever he wants.  You might think, on its face, that he will be giving the Israelis a great deal, but the reality will be much more complex, for the following reasons:

1.  Nature and politics abhor a vacuum:  If the US no longer wants to act as mediator, the Russians and the EU will be happy to step in.  The Israelis don’t trust either of those alternatives.

2.  Keeping hope alive keeps the Palestinians quiet:  Ongoing US involvement in an illusory peace process helps to prevent violence.  If the process completely expires and the Palestinians decide they have nothing to lose, the likelihood of a third intifada goes up.

3.  What are we getting for our money?  At some point, Trump is bound to look around and start asking himself why the US is giving so much aid to Israel and getting so little in return.

 

 

 

The ex-KGB man Vlad Putin.

For his old buddy Trump he was rootin’.

So he ordered attacks;

Lots of DNC hacks;

And his guy won it all, you’re darn tootin’.