Cromwell

On paper, the Senate will be one of the biggest roadblocks to the Trump agenda. Here is how it will play out in the real world:

1.  Confirming appointments:  In all likelihood, all of Trump’s cabinet appointments will squeak through, since there is a natural desire to let the President rule through men of his choosing.  The Democrats will have a field day attacking the many fox in the henhouse selections, and a few of the Republicans (McCain, Graham, Paul) will express concerns about Trump’s foreign policy team and their feelings about Putin.  On the whole, however, the storms will blow over.

2.  Ratifying treaties:  There won’t be any.  Trump will rely solely on his executive powers to deal with foreign governments.

3.  Legislation:  Mitch McConnell tends to take the long view, so don’t expect dramatic changes in the filibuster.  Obamacare repeal will turn into a fiasco.  The tax cut will pass through reconciliation, but the GOP won’t have the votes to jam much legislation through the system.  Like Obama, Trump will deal with this issue through executive action, which for some reason will no longer be called “caesarism” by the Republican leadership.

 

They make an odd couple, Donald Trump and Paul Ryan:  the swaggering narcissist with no agenda but his ego and the priggish Eagle Scout who would sell his mother for a huge regressive tax cut.  You have to believe they despise each other.  For now, they will get along, because Ryan has made it clear that he will say and do anything to advance his reverse Robin Hood agenda.  But what happens when it’s done? What will Ryan say then?

My guess is that Trump will deal with this problem by stringing Ryan along on entitlement cuts.  The issue will never come up as long as Ryan still has unfulfilled hopes on Social Security and Medicare “reform.”

I observed months ago that Dick Cheney and Donald Trump were similar in that the lives of both revolved around two things:  making money and kicking butt. Of course,  that would be true of the GOP–the daddy party–as a whole.

The Trump cabinet basically consists of two kinds of people:  generals and billionaires.  QED.

WTF?

Today it’s a wall, but tomorrow a fence.

His method’s to keep us in wide-eyed suspense.

If you’ve figured it out, then you must be in luck.

WTF?

 

A brand new appointment to balance the last.

A picture book future to blot out the past.

A road has been opened, but the bus is still stuck.

WTF?

 

China is up, but next week it’s Taiwan.

The chaos is coming; stability’s gone.

If you don’t understand this, you’re dead as a duck.

WTF?

 

The coaster is rolling; the funhouse awaits.

The world’s not convinced this is making us great.

In my eyes, it’s more like America sucks.

WTF?

 

Questions abound; no one knows what to do.

It’s hard to determine what’s false and what’s true.

Would someone please pull us all out of the muck?

WTF?

 

Anyone who watches “The Voice” on a regular basis knows that, all else being equal, America will vote for a male country singer who looks and sounds like the male country music stereotype.  However, if more than one performer is in the male country “lane,” the votes will be split, and someone else will win.  That is what is going to happen during the finals next week.

The analogy to the GOP primaries in 2012 and 2016 is obvious.  In 2012, Mitt Romney had the “moderate” (what I call the “Romney Coalition”) lane all to himself, and he prevailed.  In 2016, the Bush “shock and awe” fundraising campaign failed to drive out the other contenders in his lane, and Trump won. The electorate didn’t change that much between 2012 and 2016, but their choices did.

Just think:  if either Bush or Rubio had decided to stay out of the race, one of them probably would be the President-Elect today.  Both of them would make lousy Presidents, but at least I wouldn’t wake up in the middle of the night trying to figure out how to create a fallout shelter in a state where you can’t have a basement.

Given his personality and his background in development, it only stands to reason that Trump would support a huuuuuge infrastructure spending program. Since private sector investors obviously will insist on the creation of a substantial revenue stream, however, Trump’s plan to use public/private partnerships in lieu of public money means that either:  (a) there will be no funds to improve public facilities that are in dire condition, but which do not currently generate revenue; or (b) public facilities that are owned by entities other than the federal government–the vast majority of them–will have to be completely or partially privatized.

The latter approach sounds like something that would appeal to a Russian oligarch.  Given Trump’s enthusiasm for Putin and Russia in general, maybe that makes sense.

Most of the attention, of course, will be paid to their views on abortion.  Trump has promised to appoint pro-life justices.  While nothing he says should be taken seriously until he signs on the dotted line, there is no particularly good reason for him to lie about this, so for once, I will take him at his word.

The more interesting question is whether he will nominate judges with strong views supporting federal, and particularly executive, power.  Will he be able to identify people who will give him all the authority that he wants?  Does he even understand that will be an issue?  How will the Republicans in the Senate who have fought Obama so hard on “caesarism” justify changing their positions?  To be honest, I have no answers to these questions at this time, and neither does anyone else.

In the past, I have wondered how our new man on golf cart will react when his plans go awry and times get tough.  What happens when a strong man simply can’t get the job done?

Fortunately, on that subject, he can rely on the example of his buddy Putin and other failed dictators.  The recipe is as follows:

1.  Attack and muzzle the press to the maximum extent possible.  Of course, that is more difficult here than in other countries, but the threat of libel suits, regulatory harassment, and the use of Twitter and internet trolls should do the trick.

2.  Drape yourself in the flag.  Make it clear that your foes aren’t just critics of your administration–they hate America.

3.  Identify the enemies and blame them for your failures.  There are plenty of scapegoats available, both foreign and domestic.  Illegal immigrants, minorities, Mexico, China, whatever–it doesn’t matter, as long as it works.

The best way to combine all of these approaches, of course, is to go to war.  Don’t be surprised if he wags the dog at some point in his term.

I speak of the man they call Mitt.

With Trump he’s not really a fit.

I don’t really know why

He would work for the guy.

Trump will treat him like warmed-over sh__.

Trump’s neo-mercantilist ideas about foreign policy are out of the mainstream, even within the GOP, so it isn’t surprising that he is having trouble finding a suitable Secretary of State.  As far as we know, the leading contenders are:  (a) a nasty old guy with no diplomatic experience or talent, and with lots of conflicts of interest; (b) an otherwise decent guy who knowingly disclosed classified information to a third party, a more serious sin than the one for which Trump repeatedly lashed Hillary Clinton; and (c) another decent guy who called Trump a fraud and a phony during the campaign.

So far, so bad.  May I make a suggestion here:  Ivanka would make a great choice! She’s bright, smooth, and polished, and she has more experience translating and spinning her father’s inanities than anyone in the world.

Seriously–don’t you think she would do a better job than Rudy?

From the perspective of the new Secretary of Education, the GOP’s position on education contains two mutually exclusive threads:  first, to limit the authority of the federal government on lower education to the maximum extent possible; and second, to compel state and local governments to use vouchers and charter schools.  Given the obvious conflict here, and given that the federal government has a very limited role in education even under the best of circumstances, it is unlikely that the Trump Administration will go down in history as having accomplished much in this field,  either for good or for ill.

The more interesting question relates to the cost of higher education.  Clinton and Sanders wanted to throw billions of dollars at the problem to make public education free, at least for most people.  Obama has focused more on making the market accountable and transparent.  What will the proprietor of Trump University have to say about soaring student debt?  My guess is nothing.

There are basically two kinds of negotiators.  One type identifies a reasonable position up front and sticks to it, with minor modifications, throughout the discussions;  the other takes a maximum position up front, yells and screams a lot, repeatedly threatens to walk away from the negotiations, and only caves, as necessary, at the last minute.

Trump, who views negotiations as a way of proving his manhood, is clearly in the latter category.  It is in that light that you should view his overtures to Taiwan.  This approach can work, but it also results in crises that can easily spin out of control.  It also fails if the other party identifies it as a standard negotiating tactic and disregards it (think North Korea).

We’re about to enter into a dangerous era with the Chinese.  If you like drama, you won’t be disappointed.

You will recall that Trump campaigned as a real life Batman, claiming that “he alone” could solve the problem of rampant crime in the streets even though:  (a) crime has fallen dramatically from the levels of 20 years ago; (b) the federal government has very limited authority over issues of criminal justice; (c) he has no experience dealing with criminal justice matters; and (d) he has no ideas on the subject, or he would have shared them with us during the campaign.

What can you expect on this subject?  Lots of hot air.  He will repeatedly talk tough about criminals, throw gas on the fire whenever there is an unjustified police shooting, and give lots of publicity to the deportation of a few violent criminals who are also illegal immigrants.  That’s it.  The nonexistent problem will remain unsolved.

The new Trump adviser named Flynn.

I don’t know where I should begin.

He’ll be a crusader:

A true Muslim hater.

The battle I fear we won’t win.

When I was in Tuscany about a month ago, it appeared to me that the referendum was likely to go down, and now it has.  Another victory for the peasants with pitchforks!  This one is likely to have serious consequences, as well.

Oh, well.  At least my Christmas trip to Germany just got cheaper.