The Race Without Biden

Imagine that Biden’s candidacy dies in a blizzard of PC arrows, leaving him looking like St. Sebastian, or a left-wing Jeb Bush. We all know it could happen; Trump’s political advisers are counting on it. What happens next? Who inherits his voters?

Their first stop would undoubtedly be Beto O’Rourke; remember, the Democrats always want to nominate someone who reminds them of JFK in some way. Beto occupies a lot of the same realo ideological space as Biden, as well. The nomination would be Beto’s for the taking at that point if he can prove to the world that he isn’t an unqualified airhead. If not, where do Biden’s voters go?

Booker is realo enough to fit the bill; so, in all likelihood, is Harris. They will be watching warily, and hoping.

On Clinton and Biden

Hillary Clinton ran as the adult in the room–the uncharismatic workhorse who could get things done–in both the 2008 and the 2016 primaries. It worked in 2016, mostly because the majority of primary voters viewed Bernie Sanders as being out of the mainstream of the Democratic Party. It failed in 2008, because there were no significant substantive differences between Clinton and Obama, and the latter was a far more attractive personality.

If Biden runs, he will be assuming the Clinton political persona in 2020. There are, however, three important differences. First, notwithstanding the recent media frenzy, he has far less baggage than Clinton. Second, he knows he’s running against Donald Trump, and can use that to his advantage. Third, and this works against him, times have changed, and left-wing millennials bent on socialism, the GND, and PC nirvana are going to be out for his blood.

Is 2008 or 2016 the more relevant precedent? I honestly don’t know; it depends on whether the average Democratic primary voter is a young activist or someone more like me. We’ll see.

On Going Negative on Bernie

The negative ads on Bernie Sanders practically write themselves, but Hillary Clinton didn’t run any in 2016, probably because she was sure she would win in the end. 2020 will be a different animal, as Bernie will start the race as a favorite. Both Biden and Warren will have plenty of incentive to go negative; Bernie is a direct threat to both of them. Will they do it?

Not immediately. Warren’s campaign will wither and die, leaving Bernie as the king of the class/fundi quadrant. If Bernie and Biden emerge as the last two standing, Biden will probably decide to take the risk of alienating the left and will start running ads starring the Castros and Daniel Ortega.

On Liz, Bernie, and the Polls

Elizabeth Warren is much smarter than Bernie Sanders. She has more than one speech. She didn’t lose in 2016. She has far less baggage. Her ideas on policy are much admired by left-leaning pundits. She’s even a few years younger. But for all that, she’s way behind him in the polls. Why?

There are three possible reasons:

  1. Bernie has better name recognition by virtue of his 2016 campaign;
  2. The voters prefer his gruff authenticity to her wonky schoolteacher persona; or
  3. Bernie is a man.

These aren’t mutually exclusive, and the correct answer is probably a combination of all three. We may collectively lament the last two, but in politics, you have to play the hand you’re dealt. Complaining about an imperfect world doesn’t do any good.

#MeToo Far

Joe Biden’s accuser is totally credible. She’s also completely irrelevant, because the conduct in question had no sexual content and would be unobjectionable to a large majority of people in this country. #WhoCares?

Complaining about innocent behavior only invites a backlash, and votes for Donald Trump. The next thing you know, anyone who ever told an ethnic joke will be disqualified from public office. That’s practically everyone in my generation.

WTF UK?

It sounds like a line from a Marx brothers movie: Theresa May couldn’t even get her deal through by offering to quit. So what now?

It’s going to be no deal unless the government gets completely out of the way and a substantial number of MPs agree to think more about the country and less about party affiliation. There is a deal to be made on the basis of a permanent customs union or a second referendum if everyone will just stop worrying about the next election for a few minutes.

On Reparations and Booker’s Baby Bonds

When Cory Booker is asked about reparations, he responds by talking about his baby bonds proposal, and with good reason. Baby bonds would have most of the same impacts as reparations in practice, due to the wealth gap between whites and African-Americans, but the proposal does not discriminate on its face. Booker very appropriately sees the wealth gap as a problem to be solved through wise public policy, not a reason to pile guilt on struggling white people who are insufficiently woke.

There is a lot to like in this approach. It addresses a real problem, and it doesn’t offend me in the way that reparations would. Is it feasible? My fear is that the GOP would have success portraying it as a huge giveaway to shiftless, irresponsible minorities and thus fire up the base. Booker will have to find a way to deal with that during the campaign if he wants to spend January 20, 2021 in the White House.

A note to my readers: I will be on vacation until late next Wednesday. Posting between now and then will be irregular at best.

Should We Root for a Recession?

On the one hand, models tying presidential elections to the state of the economy are currently forecasting an overwhelming Trump victory in 2020. On the other hand, the recent yield curve inversion suggests that investors believe a recession is on the way. Should we root for one?

The amount of harm that Trump could do in a second term is incalculable. And so, yes, as painful as it would be, a mild, well-timed recession might well be a good thing for the country in the long run.

It will be entertaining, in a car crash sort of way, if we do have a recession. You will have Trump screaming for fiscal and monetary stimulus in an effort to keep his job, but that will fly in the face of Republican rhetoric about deficits and soft money during the last recession, and tax cuts for the wealthy, the GOP solution to all economic problems, will accomplish nothing.

Booker: Boring or Bridge?

David Brooks is right about one thing; Cory Booker is running as a healer, not a fighter. I’ve often referred to Booker as Obama Lite, because he’s an African-American man with some of the same qualities as Obama, but not to the same degree. He doesn’t have the same exotic biography or the same gifts of rhetoric. He’s not a hot and spicy chicken wing; he’s mild.

Booker has two significant things going for him. First of all, he has a good chance to win a general election by putting the Obama coalition back together again. Second, he would be generally acceptable to all of the quadrants of the Democratic coalition. He is, in a way, the lowest common denominator.

Is that good enough for the Democrats in 2020? Will they settle for a healer instead of a fighter? I doubt it; I think Harris is going to prevail in the minority lane and be one of the three finalists, along with Sanders and Biden. But it’s early days, and no one really knows anything yet.

On Theresa May and “Blazing Saddles”

Do you remember the scene in “Blazing Saddles” in which the African-American sheriff threatens to shoot himself if the lynch mob doesn’t back off? May’s promise to resign once her Brexit deal is approved is sort of the opposite of that–if you back off, I promise to shoot myself!

A Beatles Classic Reimagined for Ms. Warren

DIZZY MISS LIZZY

You make me dizzy, Miss Lizzy

The way you fight for me.

You make me dizzy, Miss Lizzy

The way you set me free.

Come on, Miss Lizzy!

Make the country what it used to be!

_____________

Bravo to your wealth tax!

You want to stick it to the rich.

You make me dizzy, Miss Lizzy.

Come on and scratch my itch!

Trump is a-rockin’ and a-rollin’.

Ooh! The truth is really a bitch!

___________

You make me dizzy, Miss Lizzy.

Redo the welfare state.

Ooh, baby!

You can make the country great.

Come on, come on, baby!

You know that it’s not too late!

Parody of “Dizzy Miss Lizzy,” as performed by The Beatles.

The Fake Interview Series: Elizabeth Warren (2)

We resume the discussion at her kitchen table.

C: We’re back, and I have to say, Bailey is just as cute and furry as advertised.

W: He’s a very good boy. He’s also an asset to the campaign.

C: I want to ask you some questions today about some of your proposed programs, starting with your signature issue, the wealth tax.

W: OK.

C: I have a lot of specific questions about it, but let me start with a general one–is it intended to be more of a statement about the nature of your candidacy than a real policy proposal?

W: It’s both, of course. Why do you ask?

C: Because it truly makes a dramatic statement about what you stand for, and there are other ways to accomplish the same thing that don’t raise the same legal, political, and practical issues.

Let me start with the legal question. You have to know that there is a serious debate about whether the tax would be constitutional. Why would you propose something that will have to be reviewed by the Roberts Court? What do you think is going to happen there?

W: I’ve reviewed the history and the case law. I think it’s constitutional. There are plenty of legal scholars who agree with me. The inequality issue is too important not to take the risk. I’ll worry about the Supreme Court when the time comes–there may be ways of dealing with that.

C: And, of course, there are the administrative problems. I know the plan includes lots of money for enforcement, but the real world examples in other countries don’t exactly inspire confidence.

W: I worked out the details of the plan with some of the finest scholars in the country. We think it will work. Their studies say it will.

C: That’s all well and good, but there are plenty of other scholars who disagree, and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Anyway, doesn’t the tax also send the message that someone like Jeff Bezos should stop investing money in new projects, because he’ll just have to pay more wealth tax if he hits it big?

W: I’m not against entrepreneurial success. I’m not a socialist. I just think that too much success is a threat to the working of our political system. Anyway, Jeff gets to keep most of his earnings even with my plan.

C: Why not just amend and strengthen the estate tax? There are no legal problems, the administrative issues are much easier to deal with, and the impact on incentives is much lower.

W: The inequality issue needs to be confronted directly, forcefully, and immediately. Waiting for the plutocrats to die doesn’t get the job done.

C: Let’s move to your corporation legislation. It definitely has advantages and a reasonable conceptual basis. It isn’t outrageous to view incorporation as a privilege which comes with obligations to society. You also have Germany as a precedent. But would it work? Inequality is less of a problem in Germany than it is here, but wages are stagnant there, too.

W: You just said it–at least inequality is less of a problem.

C: Aren’t you worried about corporations gaming the system by staying below the asset threshold, and about corporate executives essentially capturing the worker board members?

W: Yes, but I can’t control that. We can create the framework and make the intent clear. Everything after that has to be up to the parties. As with most legislation, the American people would ultimately have to make it work.

C: You view corporations as being the property of a variety of interests, including the workers. Why are they different than, say, my house or my car? The people who built my house and my car don’t own any interest in them. Anyway, if the corporation has multiple objectives–not just maximizing shareholder value–how can you be sure it will stay competitive in a brutal worldwide market?

W: German corporations seem to be doing just fine.

C: Next, I’d like to talk about your child care proposal. Why not just give money to parents, rather than create a new bureaucratic system?

W: We’re trying to accomplish a wide range of things with that proposal. A lot of the friends and family care that right-wingers love so much is substandard. My proposal creates standards and good paying jobs for people that need them in addition to protecting struggling families.

C: I’ll finish with reparations. Your suggestion that we should set up some sort of a committee to study reparations sounds like an effort to win favor with African-American voters without actually doing anything. In fact, I think it would alienate millions of white voters who want desperately to find a reasonable alternative to Trump.

W: It’s a really, really important issue, and talking never hurt anyone. It’s the first step in the healing process.

C: I disagree. Let me give you two scenarios. First, a white worker from, say, Michigan who is struggling financially, and wants to vote against Trump. You’re essentially telling him that he’s guilty of discriminating against African-Americans, that he needs to feel really bad about that, that he needs to be more woke, and that he needs to write a check to African-Americans who, in his view, already get cuts in line. How do you think he’s going to react to that?

W: It’s going to be a long, slow process. No one will be writing checks any time soon. Again, we can’t solve a problem without talking about it.

C: Finally, imagine a white millennial who grew up after de jure discrimination ended. He has lots of student debt and no wealth. You’re going to tell him to write a check to pay for his white privilege? Good luck with that!

W: If anyone is writing a check, the details will have to be worked out later. Maybe the money should come out of the wealth tax. It’s all subject to discussion. I don’t have any desire to pile on white people with no money.

C: Thank you for your time.