Cromwell

Have you noticed that it has been self-proclaimed “pro-life” people who are effectively saying that old people should take one for the team and die from the virus for the sake of the economy and the Trump re-election campaign? Do you think that is an aberration?

It isn’t. While the handful of Christian Democrats who remain in the GOP can legitimately describe themselves as “pro-life,” Reactionaries have a completely different agenda. Most of them support cutting the safety net, including medical services, for the poor, the highest possible barriers to immigration for refugees, and the death penalty. If that makes you “pro-life,” then I’m Mitch McConnell.

I believe it was Justice Jackson who said that the Constitution was not a suicide pact. He was right, of course. Circumstances that the Founding Fathers could not have foreseen call for extraordinary measures. The most important consideration at such times is not paper laws or even institutions as much as trust that our leaders are completely and selflessly committed to the best interests of the nation as a whole.

That’s a problem today. Do you trust William Barr to refrain from using any new extraordinary powers to lock up Trump’s political opponents and prominent left-wing culture warriors? Do you trust Steve Mnuchin to use bailout funds for the truly needy, and not Trump and businesses that suck up to him? And, above all, do you trust Trump to put the interests of the entire country ahead of his own financial and political well-being?

Of course you don’t. You would be mad if you did.

For all of his lies and failures, Donald Trump has kept one promise in spades: he has consistently been the Great Disrupter. Every time he behaves in a completely unconventional way, even if it involves corruption or incompetence, his fans view it as evidence that, unlike other politicians, he keeps his word and doesn’t sell them out. They admire him for it.

That approach works, in a fashion, in normal times. But what happens when the Great Disrupter is knee deep in chaos? Is throwing gas on the fire a plausible strategy?

For him personally, maybe. For the country, resoundingly, no.

WE’RE AT WAR, REAL AMERICANS! No, not with the virus–that will pass. The real war is with politically correct liberals who want to take the government away from real Americans like you and give it to snooty elitists, lazy minorities, and illegal immigrants. They’re the real enemy here.

The liberals are trying to use the virus to bring me down. DON’T LET THEM DO IT! Measures taken to limit social and economic activity are just attempts to steal the election away from me–just like Mueller and impeachment. And without me, where are you? Nowhere, and you know it.

BE A SOLDIER IN THE WAR AGAINST POLITICAL CORRECTNESS!!! Go to a restaurant. Buy a car. Buy stocks. Ignore rules against socializing. Keep the money flowing, and let the good times roll. And if there’s some risk in it, who cares? You’re fighting for me! Wouldn’t you rather risk death than live in a country run by liberals? Isn’t that a fair trade-off?

Think about it.

Steve Mnuchin apparently predicted that the worst of the impact would be over in 10-12 weeks on a Fox Business News program. You might well ask, how does he know? He’s not a doctor, and even public health experts don’t know how long this is going to last. Did he just make that figure up, in true Trumpian style?

What he is really saying is that his boss won’t tolerate a lockdown that lasts any longer than 10-12 weeks, because the economic damage will hurt his re-election campaign, and besides, all this virus stuff is getting really boring. Based on Trump’s most recent statements, even that might be stretching the limits of his patience.

My guess at this point is that the virus in my Trump vs. the Virus post was right; Trump just plans to declare victory, regardless of the facts and the danger to the public, and move on.

For all of the reasons that I have stated previously, Warren would have been the weakest possible Democratic nominee, so I’m glad she’s out of the race. She’s also too old to be Biden’s VP. Those things aside, her intellect and integrity are beyond reproach, so she’s a very valuable asset to the country–in the U.S. Senate. I trust her to do the right thing, on the stimulus legislation and otherwise. That’s no small matter in these troubled times.

No one out there is better qualified to make the case against Trump on the campaign trail. She knows it, you know it, and Biden knows it. She’s probably going to demand some say on policy and personnel in exchange for her assistance. Would you make that deal, if you were Biden? Hillary Clinton apparently did, and I think he will, too.

It’s June. The economy has crashed, but the virus has slowed, and the stimulus package has helped avoid unnecessary hardship. Things are looking up, but public health officials advise caution. For the most part, the new restrictions remain in place.

Trump will have none of it. Having become bored with being a “wartime president” in just a matter of days, he wants the economy to come roaring back–now. He repeatedly screams at the governors to remove restrictions. He fires his own health officials and starts holding rallies again. Fox News, as always, falls in line. Public compliance with the restrictions collapses, and the states bow to the inevitable.

Tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of people die unnecessarily as a result of Trump’s irresponsibility. Is he rewarded for it by being re-elected, which is the only thing that matters to him? That’s up to us.

On the 45th President Trump.

The virus has made him a grump.

The markets have crashed.

Have his hopes then been dashed?

Will his prospects be crushed by the slump?

Joe Biden is, at this point, the presumptive nominee. Should he be taking a leading position on the Democrats’ negotiations on the stimulus package?

No, for three reasons:

1. It would unnecessarily annoy Sanders supporters who still see him as a viable candidate;
2. Pelosi is closer to the issue than Biden is, and has a better feel for where the legislative process is going than he does; and
3. She knows what she’s doing. If anyone in Washington can be trusted, it’s her.

The virus is going to have an enormous impact on the mechanics of campaigning. Conventions as we know them will probably not occur. Large rallies will be out of the question. The battle will be fought on the internet and the airwaves. Who will be the chief beneficiary?

Trump is going to be the dominant story; not only does he have lots of money, but his response to the virus will make news every day, while Biden will struggle for earned media. That’s less of a problem than you might think. Biden is not a great campaigner, and Trump will be reinforcing his image of corruption, divisiveness, and incompetence for swing voters every day he’s on TV.

The bottom line is that Biden is running as the closest thing to a generic Democrat as you can find, and being less visible does not detract from that posture. Being generic worked in 2018; it made the election a referendum on Trump, which is exactly what the Democrats want. It can work again in 2020.

(Barr is in his office at the DOJ when he hears a voice that sounds like thunder calling his name. Unlike his boss, he knows who it is. He kneels, lowers his eyes, and responds.)

B: I am here, my Lord! I am your instrument! Use me as you see fit!

G: Do you know why I am speaking to you, Bill Barr?

B: I would never presume to know your will, my Lord.

G: I am angry, Bill Barr. Do you know why?

B: Why?

G: Once again, my chosen people have foresaken me. Sodomites are everywhere–they even have the right to marry! The culture is full of trash and pornography! Abortion is actually legal! Crime! Drugs! The whole place has gone to hell! So to speak, of course.

B: I know, my Lord. I complain about it every day, but no one listens.

G: Even your boss, who is also my instrument, frequently takes my name in vain.

B: I’ve tried to stop him, but you know how he is.

G: I understand. He’s a busy man. He doesn’t have time for that political correctness crap.

B: What do you ask of me, my Lord?

G: As you know, I have brought a great plague on your country as punishment for its sins.

B: I figured as much.

G: It’s an opportunity, and a warning. I can do much worse. Whether I do or not is up to you.

B: How, my Lord?

G: Ask for emergency powers and use them to clean up the country. Get rid of the secular humanists and the sodomites and the pornographers. Put my name in every school in the country. It’s your big chance. Use it!

B: But the law and the Constitution!

G: What’s more important, me or them? I don’t care a fig for your Constitution. Do what’s right! Follow the example of my beloved Thomas More–only win this time!

B: Yes, my Lord! I will do it, starting today!

(Barr then wakes up and realizes he is in his bed, it was just a dream, Donald Trump is still his boss, and he had too many martinis last night.)

The Democrats in the Senate were fully justified in blocking the McConnell bill. In order to avoid unwarranted criticism, however, it will be important for the House to pass its own bill ASAP. Let’s hope that they do.

The certain nomination of Biden will deprive Trump of his favorite narratives: anti-elitist misogyny (Warren); and socialism (Sanders). The virus will make it awkward for him to compare his economy to the hellhole that was America in the Obama years. So what’s left?

Two things. First, as I’ve noted before, he will portray himself as a modern day Lincoln or FDR, fighting heroically against the virus. Inconvenient facts to the contrary will be swept under the rug unless the Democrats preserve and publicize the actual record. Second, he will make the case that the virus is a Chinese creation that was deliberately weaponized against America because of his tough stand on trade. Voting for Trump, as he tells the tale, will be an act of patriotism, and a rejection of the wimpy Obama/Biden stance on China.

Preposterous, you say? Just wait and see. Unfortunately for him, there’s plenty of video of him sucking up to Xi. That will figure prominently in the Biden commercials to come.

If he thinks he’s going to lose, of course he would. Everything in his past and present tells us that he will do literally anything in his power to avoid being seen as a loser. Nothing in the Constitution, nothing in a statute book, and no norm of any kind is sacred to him–only his self-image as the ultimate winner. He would do it in a heartbeat.

The real question is whether America would let him get away with it. Would Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham try to stop him? Would GOP officeholders all over the country take a stand for liberal democracy regardless of their immediate self-interest? What about the armed forces? Has the corruption spread so far that, like the virus, it can’t be stopped?

I regret to say that I don’t know the answer to that question. Fortunately, the man is so delusional about his popularity that defeat would probably come as a shock regardless of what the polls say, so the issue will most likely never arise.

The outcome of the general election won’t be completely dictated by the health and economic impacts of the virus, but they are going to be a huge factor. Trump will attempt to spin himself as a heroic, indispensable virus buster; the Democrats, with the facts on their side, will argue otherwise. Partisans on both sides will be unmoved by rhetoric. It’s going to come down to swing voters and the facts on the ground.

So what can we expect? If it is a V-shaped recession, and it’s morning in America in November, Trump will have the advantage. For that to happen, the virus has to more or less disappear in a few months, and the government has to do a pretty good job of replacing the lost private sector spending and keeping millions of badly stressed businesses intact. If you were a betting man, would you put your money on those things happening? Didn’t think so.