Cromwell

Trump has told something like 20,000 lies while in office, according to the WaPo. Relatively few of these were intended to deceive anyone; more typically, he does it either to pump himself up or to create loyalty tests for the people around him. How does this translate to the campaign?

He will try to use lies (e.g., on defunding the police) to redefine Biden to the American public. This, of course, requires deception. The problem is that no one outside of his base will believe his commercials. Given his record, why would they?

The bottom line is that lying only works if your word has credibility. No one has less credibility that the man on golf cart, except maybe Larry Kudlow.

It’s not Donald Trump. It’s not even Greg Abbott or Ron DeSantis, although they would surely be contenders in better days. It’s–wait for it–Brian Kemp, the estimable governor of Georgia, by a landslide.

Why? Because his political identity, for better or worse (well, just worse) is tied in with Trump’s, and he can’t even get that right. The first episode, when he reopened too fast even for the man on golf cart, could be excused as an understandably overzealous attempt to implement his master’s get back to work rhetoric. But Kemp’s new war on masks comes at a time when even Trump has acknowledged that masks can help revive the economy and thereby save his bacon. He has even worn one on camera himself!

Bet Stacey Abrams can’t wait for the rematch.

The green left seems to have reached a consensus on a program that includes massive subsidies and regulations, but no carbon tax. One assumes this was prompted largely by political pragmatism, and particularly by the experience of the French government with the gilets jaunes. Can a program without pricing truly work?

Not completely, because it doesn’t address the retrofit problem. Without carbon pricing, millions of cars run on gasoline that are currently on the road will remain there until they fall apart, and existing buildings will never be upgraded to the new standards. Over a decade or two, the car problem will go away, as cars depreciate relatively rapidly, but buildings are a completely different story. The inventory of new buildings will never be anything more than a small fraction of the whole.

Environmentalists don’t typically settle for half a loaf. Are they even really aware of this issue? We’ll see.

BURNING DOWN THE HOUSE

Watch out!

You might get what you’re after.

Cool, righties!

Strange but not a stranger.

I am an extraordinary guy

Burning down the house.

________________

Hold tight!

Wait till pandemic’s over.

Hold tight!

We’re in for nasty weather.

You all know that I will find a way

Burning down the house.

_________________________

Here’s your ticket; pack your bag.

We’re all going overboard.

The transportation is here.

Close enough but not too far

Masks will show us who you are.

Fighting fire with fire!

_________________________

Not yet; the party’s still not over.

Shakedown; you know I’ll win them over.

365 degrees

Burning down the house.

_______________________

It was once upon a place

Back when I could bare my face.

Gonna come in first place.

Liberals watching on TV say “Baby, what did you expect?”

Gonna burst into flame!

____________________________

Parody of “Burning Down the House” by Talking Heads

McConnell has to know that his party’s slim chances of winning in November will disappear without additional stimulus. So why is he playing hard to get? Partly due to ideology, but mostly because he’s engaging in his usual tactic of threatening to shoot hostages. In the end, he thinks the Democrats will make concessions to him in exchange for stimulus that also primarily benefits him, because the alternative would be horribly damaging to the American public, and the Democrats–the party of adults–would never let that happen.

Except that this time, the political stakes are extraordinarily high, and the election isn’t far away. The Democrats hold all of the cards except indifference to the national welfare. I suspect, and hope, that they will drive a tougher bargain this time.

Nothing would help Donald Trump get re-elected more than the rapid mass production of an effective vaccine. The problem, however, is that surveys show that large numbers of Americans wouldn’t trust any vaccine, and wouldn’t take it. It may be safely assumed that a substantial proportion of these people are Trump voters. Trump himself has shown considerable sympathy for anti-vaxxers throughout the years. Hence, the irony.

But we shouldn’t be surprised. Trump has consistently sabotaged himself by refusing to wear a mask and being ambivalent about supplemental unemployment insurance and aid to state and local governments. If he loses, he can blame the man with the unmasked face in the mirror.

You’ve undoubtedly seen it–the Trump commercial about how Joe Biden wants to defund the police. It’s a hellscape, and a complete lie. It’s also pretty effective, in its appalling way. That’s how the Trump campaign will be run.

The Biden commercials, on the other hand, predictably (and correctly) emphasize empathy, unity, and optimism in tough times. That’s the stark choice for America in November: fear and anger versus hope and unity.

Cancel culture is all the rage today, in more ways than one. Donald Trump included a reference to it in one of his speeches. A corporate executive was attacked for making statements supporting Trump at the White House, and subsequently made himself out as a martyr for the First Amendment. A prominent columnist left the NYT, complaining that she had been bullied by young “wokes” who were offended by her centrist views. Today, we hear that a prominent public intellectual is under attack, largely for statements he made in 2015. Where does this end?

Here are my thoughts on the issue:

1. JUST AS TWITTER IS NOT REAL LIFE, TWITTER MOBS ARE NOT REAL MOBS. No one was ever lynched by a tweet. This is an emerging problem, and it is likely to get worse over time, but its importance should not be overstated during a pandemic and a recession.
2. DECISIONS ON “CANCELLING” PEOPLE SHOULD DEPEND ON CONTEXT. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered before you go on the attack. How prominent and powerful is the individual in question? Is he really a public figure? How long ago was the statement made? Has it been repeated, or is it just an isolated incident? Was the statement really meant for the consumption of the general public, or just a few individuals? Does the statement cover an issue that historically has been open to free debate? What are the real world consequences for the targeted person, and are they disproportionate to the alleged “crime” in light of the “criminal’s” overall record? All of these things need to be considered in any particular case.
3. THE PRESUMPTION SHOULD REMAIN IN FAVOR OF FREE DISCUSSION AND INQUIRY. That is what makes our system different than China.

Applying these principles to the recent events in question, my sympathies are with Steven Pinker and Bari Weiss, but not with the corporate guy who went to the White House and said great things about Trump to a public audience. He’s not a martyr to anything except his own stupidity.

On the 45th President Trump.

Joe Biden has made him a grump.

We’re in a debate

Pitting hope against hate.

The polls say that hate’s getting dumped.

Biden is making massive investments in green infrastructure a centerpiece of his campaign, for both environmental and economic reasons. In light of the recession and ongoing climate change, this makes perfect sense. If the Democrats succeed in taking control of the Senate, is the approval of this initiative a done deal?

No, for the same reason that cap-and-trade failed: Senate Democrats will not be completely united on environmental issues. Biden will not be able to rely on Joe Manchin, or any Democratic senators from Montana, to vote against the interests of coal miners; in addition, there will problems getting anyone from Pennsylvania to put an end to fracking. The only way green investments will get through the Senate, regardless of any concerns about the filibuster, is if these people are essentially bought off with lots of funding for their respective states. That’s the American way.

Fortunately, Biden understands the Senate and is good at making deals, so he might succeed here where his more rigidly ideological colleagues would fail.

I’m currently reading a book entitled “The Civilization of the Middle Ages.” It’s well written and provocative in an academic sort of way, but the author lost me when he defended Innocent III’s use of the Inquisition in southern France. Where in the New Testament did Jesus advocate the use of torture to weed out heretics? Is coercion of belief really a core Christian principle? I must have missed that somewhere.

I bring this up because it is relevant today. Liberal values are under attack from two sides, in two different ways. Elements of the right want to use political power to legally impose their orthodoxy on the majority of Americans who don’t agree with them; the cancel culture left, on the other hand, is determined to use its presence on the internet to destroy the reputations of people who transgress its very different brand of orthodoxy. The rest of us are caught in the middle.

The two great attributes of liberalism are optimism and humility. Optimism, because the assumption is that the truth will prevail in an open marketplace of ideas; humility, because no one person or group is assumed to have a monopoly on wisdom. Our system has worked pretty well on that foundation for over 200 years. How much longer it will last, given the current trends, I cannot say.

You’re a businessman, and a conservative–a real one, not a reactionary baying for a return to some idealized version of the 1950’s. You’re perfectly happy to live in 2020, the pandemic and the social discord aside. You hate the culture wars, and just wish they would go away. You see the divisions in your country, and wonder what can be done to heal them.

You can’t stand Trump. You want to throw up every time you see him on the TV screen, which seems like all of the time. You despise his preening, incompetence, and corruption. His capriciousness, particularly with tariffs, has made your decisionmaking process much more difficult than it needs to be. You wonder how we could survive four more years of this.

But the Democrats concern you, too. It isn’t Biden, so much–you can live with him. You know you can survive the tax increases that are coming if the blue wave hits the shore; they would be a relatively small price to pay to regain some sense of stability. What bothers you more than anything is the attitude of too many rank-and-file Democrats; they clearly view you as an enemy, not someone who generates the wealth that pays for their cherished social programs. How much control will Biden have over these people? It’s hard to say.

You’re the swing voter in this election. If you vote for Trump, he has a puncher’s chance. If you don’t, the blue wave is coming. It’s in your hands.

If the race tightens, Biden wins a squeaker, and the GOP retains control of the Senate, the progressive agenda is dead, and the new administration will struggle just to keep the lights on. But what if we have a blue wave? Will the left’s demands be satisfied?

If there is, in fact, a blue wave, it will largely be due to the votes of older people who just want an end to the pandemic, the recession, and the daily drama. Biden will be at least as beholden to them as to socialist millennials. The filibuster obviously will continue to be a problem, too. And so, you will probably see tax increases on the rich, and more money spent on health care and social programs, but not a whole lot more than that.

What about funds for green infrastructure? I will address that issue tomorrow.

So how should Biden frame his acceptance speech? The overriding theme should be unity. It encompasses the most damaging criticism of Trump, appeals to moderates, and includes both the concerns of the left (inequality; health care; Black Lives Matter) and the right (white Christians are valued and entitled to protection, too).

Trump is bound to throw caution to the wind and give a red meat speech to his base, because it’s fun, and it’s the only thing he knows how to do. The contrast with my version of the Biden speech would be overwhelming. Given a stark choice between an arsonist and a fireman under the present circumstances, I have no doubt which way the mop will flop.

Trump says Biden will draw lower TV ratings than he does. For once, he’s right! An exhausted public will be grateful.

Most of us have learned by now that running the country is not the same as starring in a reality show. Trump will never figure that out.