Cromwell

Nationalism is a feeling, not an idea. It is the sense that every individual is just a small part of a larger community which is the organism that really matters in history. It is the belief that the culture attached to that community is better than anyone else’s, and must be protected at all costs. It ties the lives of individuals to a cause that is bigger than themselves. It can, and often does, serve as a substitute for religion, which largely serves the same purpose.

Because nationalism is not an idea, it cannot be rebutted with logical arguments–only results. The first half of the twentieth century provided us with those in spades. Politicians throughout the world consequently worked very hard after World War II to create institutions that would prevent nationalism from getting out of control again. Liberal democracy, the various institutions associated in one way or another with the UN, the EU, even international communism in its way–all of them were designed to restrain the worst excesses of nationalism. They have worked pretty well, on the whole; the world has become a more peaceful place, to the benefit of everyone.

But time passes, and people forget. Steve Bannon somehow views the thirties as being some sort of golden age. Trump’s “America First” mantra is a rejection of internationalist institutions. Revisionist states are on the prowl. The world is getting more dangerous.

Where are we going with this? American support of international institutions is vital if they are to survive in any meaningful way. If Biden wins, the Trump era will probably be viewed as an outlier in the long run. If Trump wins, heaven help us all.

The question is neatly encapsulated in “man on golf cart;” is Trump a dangerous tyrant, or does he just aspire to play one on TV? Lots of pundits have weighed in on this issue on both sides. Is there a definitive answer?

You don’t have to choose: he can be both, and is. Nobody would question his bona fides as a figure of absurdity, but it is perfectly possible to be a ridiculous dictator–just ask Mussolini. In any event, even if he doesn’t actually aspire to be a tyrant, both events and the people around him could drive him to become one.

To put the issue another way, if you asked Trump if he objected more to being called a fascist than a loser, what do you think he would say? Exactly! Regardless of what he might actually want in his heart of hearts, he will burn down half of the country if that’s what it takes to be recognized as the unquestioned leader of the remaining half.

For better or worse, nationalism is about the feeling that each individual is just a small part of a much larger cultural whole, and that it is the condition of the whole relative to the rest of an alien and hostile world that ultimately matters. Does Trump meet that standard?

Of course not, for two reasons. First, while it is obviously not uncommon for nationalists to reject and even demonize small racial, ethnic, or religious minorities within their country, Trump only attempts to represent about 40 percent of Americans. You can’t be a real nationalist if you despise most of your countrymen. Second, as we all know, he is purely in it for himself, and his economic policies have consistently favored wealthy businessmen over the mass of average citizens.

The bottom line is that America means nothing to Trump. He simply uses the flag like a used car salesman to sell himself.

The Russian government obviously poisoned Navalny. They’re barely trying to hide it. The continued use of the same obscure poison is a clear message to Putin’s opponents–we’re coming for you, and you can’t stop us.

Trump, as you would expect, has been silent on the issue. If he did actually respond, he would probably say that the 400 pound guy on his bed might be responsible, or that America poisons its enemies, too.

American exceptionalism, indeed.

Life in the time of Trump.

Do black lives matter less?

To a certain kind of guy

That’s the truth, I guess.

He’s resolved to cling to power

Regardless of the cost.

Dictatorship if he should win.

A graveyard if he lost.

Trump and Fox News predictably have an exaggerated view of what constitutes self-defense for right-wing militia types. First, it was the Missouri couple pointing guns at peaceful protesters in the street; then, the teenager with the assault rifle killing two people in Kenosha; finally, Trump saying that shooting pepper spray and paint at protesters is perfectly OK.

Where does this end? With a cycle of massacres and martyrs on both sides if it doesn’t stop now.

The pandemic has made it clear: in addition to providing an education, public school is a form of day care that is essential for the workings of the American economy. We accept taxpayer funding for public schools because they contribute to the well-being of all of society, including people without children. What, then, is the principled objection to providing subsidized day care for smaller children?

Biden is carrying forward what amounts to a Warren plan on this subject. While many of Warren’s plans were, in my opinion, fundamentally flawed, I would be willing to pay higher taxes to implement this one.

Trump tells us that we have to re-elect him because he’s a strong man who will keep us safe in a dangerous world. Really? Let’s look at the record:

1. THE VIRUS: 180,000 dead and counting. He belittled the problem, made wearing masks a culture war issue, demanded that states open up before they were ready, and concluded by saying “It is what it is.” As far as he’s concerned, the pandemic is over, and it’s time to move on.
2. NATURAL DISASTERS: Trump doesn’t believe in climate change. Instead of providing California with help, he dismisses the wildfire problem as a simple matter of state and local land management. He threw paper towels to the desperate people of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. Not exactly a stellar record.
3. CRIME: Having proclaimed that “he alone” could reduce violent crime in this country, he has predictably done nothing. Murders are up this year in most large American cities. That isn’t really his fault, but he said it was on him, so let’s take him up on it.
4. EXTERNAL THREATS: Iran is closer to getting a nuclear weapon thanks to his decision to withdraw from Obama’s agreement. His efforts to charm Kim have come to nothing. He has terminated, or is in the process of terminating. several arms control agreements with Russia; an arms race consequently looms. Our allies no longer support us, and don’t believe a word he says. The Chinese military threat has increased in the South China Sea.
5. THE ECONOMY AND THE WELFARE STATE: The recession speaks for itself, and he has continued to try to dismantle Obamacare through legislative and legal means.

Doesn’t exactly make you feel safe, does it?

As at the convention, Biden made the speech he needed to make, this time on protests and violence. Trump, for his part, made it clear that he condones violence from his supporters. Having been fully educated by the candidates, the American public must now choose a side on this issue.

In the meantime, here are two points that Biden really needs to emphasize:

1. RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE: Minimum wage increases are popular with the general public because they don’t look like a form of welfare, even though that is exactly what they are. Trump claims to speak for working people, but he doesn’t support them on this issue. Do reactionary workers really love Jesus and guns so much that they will turn down a large wage increase? Let’s find out.
2. SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY: The elderly are used to hearing Democrats talk in general terms about GOP cuts to Social Security and Medicare, so they generally pay them no mind. In this election, however, Biden actually has a plan to address the looming funding crisis, while Trump’s payroll tax cut will make things worse. Biden should make this a centerpiece of his pitch to seniors, because Trump has no answer for it, and it matters–a lot.

Left to his own devices, Donald Trump would almost certainly make a deal with the Democrats for a huge stimulus. After all, he doesn’t care about the deficit; he wants to run for re-election backed by a roaring economy. Nothing other than winning in November matters to him in the slightest.

But being unmoored from ideology frequently means that he follows the advice of the last person he sees– often, Meadows. Meadows is a CL. He hates spending and deficits. He has apparently persuaded Trump against all logic that holding the line on spending in a recession and a pandemic is a political winner.

The recovery is stalling, and may even go into reverse thanks to the stupidity of the man on golf cart and his henchman. That will cost Trump bigly in November. As a result, we may well be able to thank Meadows for saving us from a second national nightmare.

Trump is clearly behind today. What could happen between now and the election that would change the picture? Here are some possibilities:

1. A V-SHAPED RECOVERY: Sure, and pigs could fly. With the foolish withdrawal of stimulus and the opening of schools, a third wave of the virus is much more likely.
2. A VACCINE: Expect Trump to trumpet something, anything, as a medical miracle ending the virus. That won’t happen before November, either.
3. A WAR: I’ve predicted a war with Iran for years. Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for war has been the one pleasant surprise of his administration. Still, the advantages are obvious, and the possibility can’t be dismissed.
4. AN OCTOBER SURPRISE FROM BARR: He’s certainly capable of generating something out of nothing, but at this point, nobody is going to believe him.
5. A DRAMATIC ESCALATION OF THE VIOLENCE: You could imagine Trump egging on supporters to shoot protesters and then claiming that “he alone” can stop the violence. Too cynical? This is Trump we’re talking about, my friends.
6. VOTE SUPPRESSION: The mail is already an issue. Militia activity around polling places could follow. We have to be ready for anything.

My greatest fear at this point is that we will see a proliferation of armed right-wing militias interjecting themselves into protests and even the election. With the escalating violence, victims on both sides, and Fox News talking heads lionizing Trump-addled killers, we’re getting dangerously close to that precipice.

A word to the wise, my protester friends: the right has guns and the willingness to use them. The left doesn’t have anything like that. If you engage in violence, you aren’t just helping Trump make his case to the electorate; you’re putting your lives, and everyone else’s, at risk. Don’t do it. Keep your eyes on the prize, and keep the protests peaceful.

My head says it’s Mitch McConnell. He openly put partisan politics ahead of the national interest in 2009-2010, and he’s likely to do it again if Biden wins in November. His treatment of Merrick Garland was disgraceful. He has a model of minority rule through the federal system and the judiciary that is dangerous to the health of our political system. He matters. He needs to go.

But my heart says it’s Lindsey Graham. There’s just something about his obsequiousness towards a man you know he despises and the self-righteous violence of his reactionary rhetoric that drives me nuts. Besides, he might actually lose. The likelihood of beating McConnell is much lower.

The winner is . . . Graham, by a nose.

WITH OR WITHOUT YOU

See our numbers in free fall.

Can this work in the long haul?

I doubt it, too.

___________________

It’s a nasty twist of fate.

We’ve seen the future; it’s not great.

And the blame is on you.

With or without you.

With or without you.

______________________

In a storm; can’t reach the shore.

We’ve given all, but you want more.

And the bill has come due.

With or without you.

With or without you.

We can’t win, with or without you.

________________

And you push swing votes away.

And you push swing votes away.

And you push

And you push

And you push swing votes away.

With or without you.

With or without you.

We can’t win

With or without you.

__________________

Parody of “With or Without You” by U2.

Barring a monumental October surprise, Trump’s best hope is to run against the protesters and hope that he can scare undecided voters into his camp. Think of Willie Horton, only to the nth power. Can it work?

It can’t be written off entirely, particularly if the violence becomes more intense and widespread, but conditions are significantly different now than they were in 1988. Public perceptions of the two candidates are much less fluid than they were 32 years ago. Partly as a result of that, and partly due to ideological polarization, there are far fewer undecided voters now than there were then. There was no pandemic and no recession in 1988. It is difficult for Trump to make the case that he alone can stop the violence when he isn’t actually doing it. Finally, Biden will fight back against the Trojan Horse narrative. He learned from Dukakis’ mistakes.