Cromwell

He won’t be dragged out of the White House, as some people imagine. He’ll leave for Mar-a-Lago at some point before Christmas and just never return.

1. Harris looked almost giddy. Good! The best lesson I learned as a young lawyer was to enjoy my victories, because I had to earn them.
2. For the last four years, Trump has made me embarrassed to be an American. That’s over.

I’ll stand on your grave

And tramp the dirt down.

—-E. Costello

I’m sorry–I’ve been living in a world filled with boastful Trump flags for the last few months. I’m entitled to gloat for at least a day or two.

(Donald Trump is wandering aimlessly around the White House when he is visited by the ghost of his father. He is elated. Help is on the way! It’s the deus ex machina!)

D: Dad! I’m so glad to see you! I need help! Things are bad! BAD!

F: I know, son.

D: But you can save the day, just like you did when you bought those casino chips, right?

F: America is not a casino, son. I’m here to tell you how disappointed I am in you. I brought you up to be a winner. You had every possible advantage. And now you’re a loser, in front of all of the world. You’re an embarrassment to the family. I can’t tell you how humiliated I am.

D: But they were all against me! Big Tech! The Big Media! The corrupt Democrats! And then there was the virus! There was nothing I could do!

F: The virus was an opportunity–you just didn’t see it. All you had to do was wear a mask and pretend that you cared about people. You couldn’t bring yourself even to put on an act. Now look where you are!

D: But you taught me that strength was the only thing that mattered! What else could I do?

F: There’s a difference between strength and stupidity. It’s the difference between winning and losing. Now, you’re a loser. You have to live with that for the rest of your life. And I have to live with it, too. I can’t stand it!

D: But, you’re dead! What do you really care?

F: I disown you. You’re as weak as your brothers. You let me down. Go back to one of your overpriced clubs and never ask for anything from me again!

(Fred disappears. Donald dissolves in a mass of self-pity.)

Donald Trump significantly overperformed relative to the conclusions of numerous state polls in 2016. The polling entities made adjustments to address their errors. The adjustments appeared to work in 2018. This year, however, Trump and the GOP have consistently performed about 4 points better than the state and national polls suggested. What is going on here?

We’re all familiar with the aggressive Trump voter–the one who flies an enormous, obnoxious flag in front of his house and on his pickup truck. That kind of voter appears to be the norm. It is possible, however, that there are other people voting for Trump out of perceived economic interest who are embarrassed to admit it and who consequently lie to pollsters. In other words, in spite of appearances and my previous opinion, there still is such a thing as a shy Trump voter.

I can’t explain it any other way.

Notwithstanding the vagaries of the Electoral College, a majority of Americans never bought into Donald Trump, as evidenced by consistent polling over the years and Clinton’s margin of 3 million in the overall popular vote in 2016. Biden is going to win the popular vote by over 4 million this time around. The additional million votes in the margin is undoubtedly attributable to disgust with Trump’s performance in office, including, but not limited to, his failures with the pandemic.

Given his awful record, why isn’t the margin greater? Why didn’t we have a blue tsunami? Why is Mitch McConnell going to be a sort of co-president for the next two years? The answer can be found in the GOP commercials, virtually all of which attacked looters, rioters, and political correctness, not Joe Biden. America may be tired of Trump, but it isn’t ready to embrace wokeness yet. That will only come after tens of millions of Americans of my age or greater have left the scene.

So what will the woke do in the meantime? Probably tell us that the election proves that they were right–America was always an evil, racist empire, and it still is.

Future historians will probably be appalled by Trump’s rambling and nonsensical attack on polls, the MSM, and nonexistent corruption in the election last night. With good reason, of course. But we’re used to that. To me, the more noteworthy aspect of the monologue was the whiny, self-pitying tone. Trump was basically telling us that, notwithstanding the swagger that he has made his brand, he was no match for the dark powers of the media, Big Tech, and the Democratic Party in the end.

It is as I forecast four years ago: what’s the point of a man on horseback who can’t get anything done? If you’re going to be Mussolini, get it right! Man up, dude!

I would describe the elements of Trumpism as follows:

1. Swagger, to the point of toxic masculinity;
2. Constant divisive and inflammatory reactionary public statements on race and culture;
3. Orthodox GOP positions on taxing, spending, and regulation;
4. Open contempt for liberal democracy and its norms, both at home and abroad; and
5. A foreign policy based completely on the perceived short term material needs of the United States, without regard to national values, existing alliances, or international institutions.

How much of this will survive his departure from the scene, whether now or later? Swagger has been an integral part of the GOP brand since Reagan; no GOP candidate for the presidency can survive without it. The trick is to mute it slightly in order to avoid offending so many women. The taxing, spending, and regulation thread will be followed by any future nominee, barring a surprising move to economic populism on the part of the party. #5 will almost certainly disappear, as it is unique to Trump.

The real questions are #2 and #4. My guess is that the results of the 2020 election, even if Trump loses, will be used as evidence that behaving autocratically and constantly throwing red meat to the base is a winning strategy even if it offends a majority of Americans and threatens our institutions. That is the tragedy of November 3, regardless of the ultimate outcome of the presidential race.

Donald Trump rarely passed up an opportunity to disparage John McCain. By many accounts, this has cost him thousands of votes among independents in Arizona.

Wouldn’t it be delicious if Trump’s mouth ultimately lost him the election? One has to think that McCain would have appreciated the irony.

Count every vote in Arizona! But not in Pennsylvania and Georgia!

California is our largest state, with 55 electoral votes. Did any of the talking heads spend any time talking about it last night? Of course not. The election revolves around a handful of votes in a few smaller states. Millions of Californians just voted to run up the score in a completely meaningless way.

That’s objectively ridiculous. I renew my argument for awarding electoral votes proportionately. This situation has to change.

Life in the time of Trump.

And now we sit and wait.

It’s too soon to say for sure

That love defeated hate.

I can’t tell you who’s ahead

Or what the future brings.

But millions of Americans

Just voted for a king.

As I write this, the result of the presidential election is unknown, and the nightmare scenario looms, minus any widespread militia activity outside of polling places. Even if Biden ultimately wins, which is hardly assured, the notion that a president with such appalling qualities, and such a terrible record, could be that competitive is nothing short of shameful. Why is it happening?

Just look at the maps. This election is about the urban/rural split. Trump hasn’t done anything to make people in rural areas safer or more prosperous, so this is a culture war election, pure and simple. Culture trumps everything in this country, including respect for institutions and the law. Period. Even the deaths from the virus barely mattered.

And so, if you’re associated with the protests, or BLM, or the 1619 Project, understand that Trump was running against you, not Biden, and a large percentage of Americans hates you. The transformative moment that you thought had arrived is still years in the future. Fair or not, that’s the way it is.

Life in the time of Trump.

Election Day is here.

Today we march on to the polls

With hope instead of fear.

We know that Trump will try to cheat.

His ego’s on the line.

A blue wave looms if the vote is fair

And that suits me just fine.

What if the Chinese had a hypersonic missile that killed over 200,000 Americans. Would Trump be saying “It is what it is?” Would the GOP acquiesce?

Of course not. As with the hypothetical that I posed many months back about climate change, this illustrates the fact that the GOP is not really interested in protecting Americans from external threats. Part of the reason is the need for collective (i.e., governmental) action, which they hate, but they have no objection to big government when it is fighting wars instead of doing contact tracing. No, the real reason for the difference is that there is a suitably macho response to a military attack, but not to a virus or to climate change. If your brand is toxic masculinity, you have no answer to the virus except to downplay it and move on.