Cromwell

It feels like an eternity ago, but at this time last year, I was composing parodies of Christmas carols about impeachment. Doesn’t that seem hopelessly quaint now?

There was never any possibility that Trump would be removed from office regardless of the magnitude of his crimes. The Democrats’ objectives consequently were: (1) to make the necessary stand for constitutional government; (2) to dig up and publicize as much information as possible about Trump’s dirty dealings with Ukraine; (3) to get some level of GOP support for removal; and (4) to avoid a backlash. On balance, they accomplished all of these objectives.

In a normal year, impeachment would have been a hot topic during the campaign. In 2020, it barely made a ripple. The year was dominated by the pandemic and the corresponding recession. More on those in future posts.

My wife is fond of referring to “Rick DeSantis,” an amalgam of the past and present governors of Florida. The idea is to point out the continuity between two basically odious GOP administrations. The two men in question, however, are more different than similar.

Rick Scott is a CL. He really, really, really hates all levels of government. Like Grover Norquist, he wants to reduce the size of government to the point where it can be drowned in the bathtub; unlike Norquist, he probably wants to put it on the rack and torture it first. Scott, predictably, is bored in the Senate and wants to be the CEO of America, Inc. He will try to get there by promising massive reductions in federal spending–particularly for what GOP voters view as the undeserving poor.

Ron DeSantis is a more easygoing Trumpist. Like Scott, he is desperately ambitious for higher office; unlike him, he craves popularity. In the first phase of his administration, he actually took some steps to protect to the environment, because he wanted to respond to what was clearly a public priority. He has bungled the pandemic, however, unlike Scott, who actually did a fairly good job of dealing with hurricanes. Whether he can recover in time for the next election remains to be seen.

They have one thing in common: neither is going to be president. I sometimes refer to Scott as Ted Cruz, but without the charisma. When he took office, I used to joke that he would securitize Florida’s non-working (i.e., unproductive) population and sell them to unsuspecting German investors. His toughness will fly with the base, but his lack of personality won’t; in any event, the base doesn’t really care about spending as long as too much of it doesn’t go to minorities. DeSantis, for his part, will struggle to be re-elected in 2022, and has no national following. If the base wants a Trump clone, there are lots of other, more interesting choices available.

Day after day, year after year, Rush Limbaugh owns the libs. He tells his millions of devoted followers that the corrupt, self-dealing coastal elites look down on them, and that their way of life is in danger. He tells them to hate blue people. And they do.

It makes perfect sense that Trump gave Limbaugh an award during the last State of the Union, because the two have the same message. The difference is that you can choose not to listen to Limbaugh. Trump is on all of the time, and we can’t get away from him–at least not until January 20.

Imagine that you are a prominent PBP politician, and that it is the middle of 2023. The economy is stuck in neutral, Biden has announced he’s not running for re-election, and Harris is being challenged from the left. Things are looking up for you and the GOP.

Except, of course, for Donald Trump. It appears that he is serious about running. His campaign is focused on avenging himself on the RINOs who accepted the results of the 2020 election. He has as good as promised to be a true authoritarian next time around, and to ignore the Constitution whenever he sees fit. The polls say he has substantial support among GOP voters in spite of his ongoing legal and public relations problems, and he has no meaningful primary opposition as yet.

You know as well as anyone that Trump isn’t fit to be president–hell, he wasn’t fit last time. But you are afraid of his base, and he starts with vast advantages in resources and public support. So, what do you do? Do you rush to kiss his ring in the hopes that he will forget about your past disloyalty, even though you know he will destroy the country if he wins? Or do you stand and fight for the soul of the GOP, even with unfavorable odds?

This could happen. If it does, the answer to the questions will have a major impact on the fate of our country.

Hundreds of millions of Chinese migrant workers pack cold, overcrowded trains to return to their ancestral homes every Chinese New Year. Once there, they reconnect with family members they left behind, watch a bad TV program, honor their ancestors, and celebrate their roots and traditions at a time when the pace of change in their country has to feel overwhelming.

If you strip out the Christianity (on one side) and the crass commercialism (on the other) from Christmas, the experience which remains is actually very similar to the Chinese holiday. The universality of the need to embrace family and traditions should make you feel better about the holiday, not worse, particularly if you are a conservative in the true sense of the word.

Merry Christmas!

Dolly Parton has been ubiquitous this holiday season. Every time you turn on the TV, one of her specials or movies is on. She’s almost as big a part of Christmas as snow, the Rockettes, and Penatonix.

Dolly wears her Christianity on her sleeve, but it never grates. She is loved and admired by blue as well as red America. Why?

Because Dolly represents the Christianity of the Christmas carols. She offers compassion, tolerance, and inclusion, not anger and Trumpist bile. It’s a refreshing change, to say the least.

There is a message there for the religious right–not that they will pay any attention to it.

The Brexit deal is done–just a few hours before Christmas. Here is my evaluation of it:

1. From the EU’s perspective, the most important issue was to prevent the British from deviating substantially from EU rules. That will be accomplished through an arbitration process. The UK could, of course, try to ignore or sabotage the tribunal (think the US with the WTO here), but if it does, the EU can impose tariffs. It’s hard to see any gain for the UK here.
2. The agreement doesn’t include services, which means hard times for the City.
3. The soft border in the Irish Sea will remain. That’s not a good outcome if you think Northern Ireland is an integral part of the UK.
4. New paperwork requirements will cost time and money for both sides.

It’s hard for me to see how the UK will be better off with this deal in place. But, hey, it’s great if you’re a British fisherman!

Like many of us, Thomas Friedman is hoping that the battle between Trump’s reactionary crazies and the rest of the GOP will transform the latter into a responsible center-right party. It would be a Christmas miracle, to be sure. Is it likely?

Let’s put it this way: even if you take the Reactionary faction completely out of the picture, which is clearly impossible, the GOP would be led by a man who ruthlessly and single-mindedly pursues his goals of tax cuts and deregulation for his donors and power for himself regardless of the interests of the American people as a whole. Does that sound like promising material for a responsible center-right party to you?

Nevertheless, we can dream. The last Christmas miracle was 2020 years ago. Maybe we’re overdue.

I was reading an interview a few days ago in which a prominent Justice Democrat was arguing that, due to the Democrats’ shrunken majority in the House, the left controls the balance of power. Was he right?

Of course not! Small legislative factions can dictate policy in parliamentary systems when their positions are roughly equidistant from the two major parties, or when they have a credible incentive to force new elections. None of that is present here. We don’t have a parliamentary system, new elections are a legal impossibility, and the Justice Democrats will always be closer in ideology to the leadership than to the GOP. As a result, the threat is completely hollow; it can and will be ignored.

As I predicted, the Reactionary faction of the GOP has split over the legitimacy of Biden’s victory. One subfaction (we’ll call them the Barrists) believes that Trumpism has some intellectual coherence as an ideology apart from the man on golf cart and pushes the envelope as far as possible, but feels obligated to observe at least some of the forms of constitutional government. The other subfaction consists of crazoids and conspiracy theorists whose loyalty is purely to Trump as an individual. These are the folks who are talking about overturning the election and declaring martial law; in their view, the Barrists are RINOs and cucks.

In other words, the Judean People’s Front has declared war on the People’s Front of Judea. As with the movie, our only task is to sit back, watch the show, and laugh.

A normal president would be doing his best to keep the ship of state afloat and moving in a reasonable and predictable direction during the transition period. Trump is anything but normal, and he is trying to do as much harm as possible before he leaves.

Yesterday was a perfect example. First, he issued more pardons to figures from the Russia investigation and to members of the armed forces who committed atrocities in Iraq. Then, he threatened to veto the stimulus bill on the basis that the payments to individuals were way too small, when in fact, they shouldn’t be in the bill at all. The threat was clearly motivated by his desire to remain relevant in his waning days, and was a transparent bribe to the American people in his quixotic battle to stay in office.

The good news here is that, having blown up everything else, Trump is now training his guns on mainstream GOP politicians and showing us what his presidency could have been like if he had not chosen Republican fiscal orthodoxy over opportunistic populism after he took office. That could create some openings for Biden and the Democrats. Even nihilism sometimes has its uses.

Based on the results of surveys which indicate that its taxing and spending plans are popular, the left insists that it is winning the war of ideas. That does not, however, translate into winning elections. The public may approve of the individual programs, but it doesn’t trust the messengers. That is the reason, for example, that Florida voted for Trump and a large minimum wage increase.

So what should the left do? Here are some ideas:

1. STOP CALLING IT SOCIALISM: Millions of Americans associate “socialism” with totalitarian leaders or with some form of political correctness run amok. Either way, it is a huge vote loser with everyone but millennials who are going to vote for you, anyway. Avoid the label like the plague; based on the textbook definition, you aren’t really a socialist, anyway.
2. TAKE THE CULTURE WAR ISSUES SERIOUSLY: Left-leaning politicians rarely deign to acknowledge the importance and legitimacy of culture war issues to large segments of the population. Dismissing Christianity as a form of “false consciousness,” talking about “defunding the police,” and complaining about voters who put identity and values issues over their economic self-interest doesn’t win elections outside of bright blue districts. Values and identity concerns have to be addressed openly and frankly in red and purple jurisdictions. Make it clear that you care vastly more about affordable health care than bathrooms for transgender people.

2020 has been a disaster for the left wing of the Democratic Party. First, its chosen candidates, Sanders and Warren, were routed in the primaries, thereby showing that the left doesn’t even constitute a majority of Democrats, much less the country. Then, its plan to use its Twitter muscle to force Biden to become a new FDR fell by the wayside when the GOP gained seats in the House, and appeared likely to maintain control of the Senate. Worse, its theory of winning power by boosting turnout and ignoring swing voters was a complete flop. To the surprise of no one except the left, millions of newly mobilized voters liked Donald Trump.

But Georgia presents one last opportunity to save the day. If the Democrats can win two elections that unquestionably revolve around turnout, the left’s mobilization theory will be partially vindicated, and the Democrats will control the Senate. Pressure for fundamental changes, such as court packing and the abolition of the filibuster, will intensify.

Will it happen? It’s possible–both elections will be close– but I’m not holding my breath.

“Defund the Police” was one of the principal targets of GOP candidates during the last election. As the basis for federal policymaking, it is a political disaster, for the following reasons:

1. Yes, crime is down relative to where it was years ago, but you would never know it by watching the local news in any market you might choose. TV stations virtually always lead with crime stories, because they are colorful and make for good ratings. Americans are consequently hypersensitive to crime regardless of the trends and statistics. They aren’t going to vote to get rid of the people who protect them from the bad guys they see at 6:00 every night, to say nothing of the crime dramas in prime time in which cops are invariably portrayed as heroes.
2. America has thousands of jurisdictions with law enforcement responsibilities. Many of them probably don’t have excessive force or racism issues; their residents have no interest in defunding the police. In some of them, the problems are limited to a few bad apples, who need to be identified and disciplined. In a few, the problems are systemic, and require a sweeping response. There is no one size fits all federal solution to these problems; they have to be addressed based on their individual facts.

(It’s 5:00 on December 24. Bob Cratchit is working in his cubicle at Scrooge, LLC when the boss, in “managing by walking around” mode, comes by.)

C: Mr. Scrooge, sir.

S: What is it . . . (looks at the nameplate in the cubicle) . . . Cratchit?

C: Can I have tomorrow off, sir?

S: Why in the world would I do that?

C: Why . . . because it’s Christmas, sir.

S: Not in China, it isn’t. How am I supposed to compete with those people and their low labor costs if I give you unnecessary days off?

C: Well, actually, the Chinese get a whole week off for Chinese New Year. We shouldn’t be working on site this year, anyway. I might get the virus and give it to my special needs child.

S: (Sees a picture of Tiny Tim in the cubicle) Is that him?

C: Yes, sir.

(Scrooge walks around the office with an exaggerated limp)

C: There’s nothing funny about it, sir! He’s in really bad shape!

S: I don’t have time for that political correctness crap.

C: You sound just like Donald Trump, sir.

S: Trump is right about some things. I will miss him on occasion. Mostly, I won’t.

C: Why? Didn’t I see you wearing a MAGA hat?

S: That’s only because I hate socialism. I still have Mitch to protect me, and I won’t have to worry about Trump’s capriciousness and tariffs anymore. It’s the best of all worlds, politically speaking.

C: So, you don’t believe in the fraud stuff, and you don’t support martial law?

S: Certainly not. Those people are nuts. We don’t need the uncertainty. It’s time to move on.

C: You know that Biden is very pro-labor. There will be lots of new regulations.

S: Yeah, and that’s why I’m going to give you your day off. Sort of. There will be a Zoom meeting at noon. I’ll text you the password.

C: Thank you, sir!

S: And don’t even think about ghosting me!

(Cratchit packs up and leaves)