Cromwell

I defined “fascism” as the pursuit of reactionary ends by extraconstitutional means in a post around a year ago. Wednesday’s events unquestionably meet that definition. What does that mean for the GOP?

Here is where the factions stand:

1. CDs: They have already left the party. This episode will convince them they made the right decision.
2. CLs: Fascism inevitably involves an increase in the power of the state over the individual. CLs will oppose that with all the strength they can muster. Unfortunately, they are easily the smallest remaining faction in the party.
3. Reactionaries: They’re now split into two groups. One of them has some respect for the Constitution and our political institutions; it deplores the invasion of the Capitol. The other, much larger, group, supports the takeover and thinks Trump is still fighting for real Americans against the leftist enemy and their misguided RINO allies.
4. PBPs: Mitch McConnell, the WSJ, and the NAM denounced the takeover in no uncertain terms after the loss of the two Senate seats in Georgia. They want Trump gone ASAP.

The bottom line is that over 40 percent of GOP voters, according to a survey, believe the violence was justified. That means the GOP is on the edge of turning into a fascist party. Can the rot be stopped?

It’s up to the PBPs. History tells us they prefer limited government, which maximizes their freedom and power, but will support fascists if they think the only viable alternative is socialism. We’ll see.

The notion of a “conservative frontier” would be an oxymoron, but a “reactionary frontier” in the mists of time is not. If you asked the average American reactionary for a wish list to make America great again, I think this is what you would get:

1. Religious and racial tests to limit voting and officeholding to practicing white Christians;
2. An end to abortion, with birth control being limited to married couples;
3. An end to all legal protections for LGBTQ people;
4. A strict regime of protectionism for failing industries; and
5. Rigorous censorship of the MSM, the internet, and Hollywood.

The first thing you would note about the list is how far removed it is from anything that Donald Trump, or any current GOP politician, has seriously suggested. That is because there is no possibility of the agenda, with the exception of #2, becoming reality without dramatic changes to our political and legal systems.

I submit to you that the distance between the dream and reality is the reason so many reactionaries are perpetually angry, and why the Trumpist base is consequently sympathetic to fascism. If you needed proof of that, you received it on Wednesday. Trump himself is too lazy and narcissistic to make it happen, but by trampling norms left and right, he has shown that it could happen with the right leadership.

Yesterday was a really, really bad day for Mitch McConnell. First, he woke up to find that the GOP had lost the two Georgia races, and that he was now the Minority Leader. Then, he had to deal with the dangerous divisions in the GOP over the election objections, and the crazoid occupation of the Capitol. Finally, he undoubtedly heard at some point that Biden was going to nominate Merrick Garland for AG. That had to bring back some memories.

As I noted previously, the AG job is Biden’s most important hire. Garland is a relatively nonpartisan, respected figure, and is thus an appropriate choice for such a sensitive job. What makes this nomination special, however, is his history with McConnell and the Supreme Court. This time, he’s going to get his hearing, and Mitch can do nothing about it.

A snap poll of GOP supporters indicated that almost half of the party supported the occupation of the Capitol. If you thought this fiasco would shock them into seeing reason, guess again.

On the GOP leader named Mitch.

He’s gone after Trump–that’s a switch!

No longer the boss

Our gain is his loss

But you know, they say karma’s a bitch.

Mitch McConnell has proved over and over again that he doesn’t give much of a damn about the welfare of the American people. What he does care about is the number and electoral safety of GOP senators. And so, having lost his majority as the result of the antics of his party leader, who was now threatening to primary any GOP member of Congress who didn’t vote to keep him in power, thus weakening the GOP even further, McConnell finally snapped. His speeches–delivered with great passion, for him–were the highlight of a very long day.

McConnell’s plan was to avoid votes that would split his senators. He was partially successful; the votes took place, but his majority was so large, it will be difficult for the Trump supporters to find plausible primary opponents for all of them. The sore thumbs were the objectors, not the RINOs.

Who is the luckiest man in America today? Marco Rubio. The riots gave him the necessary cover to vote against the crazoids. Without it, who knows what he does?

Rick Scott voted for one of the two objections. He probably thinks that proves he has independent judgment and a foot in both camps. What it actually makes him is half a crazoid, which, if anything, is even more ridiculous than a full one.

Trump ran for president as someone who would disrupt the status quo. This was welcomed by many of his supporters, who were convinced they had nothing to lose, regardless of his conspicuous personal shortcomings.

So, have you had enough disruption yet? Did today’s events give you satisfaction?

The end of the man on golf cart administration, logically enough, is a man on golf cart coup attempt–a farce, not a revolution. A rabble of burly MAGA hat wearing men in the Capitol does not represent a serious threat to the constitutional order. Next time, however, it will be militia members with guns and a clear idea of what to do. The flags compare Trump to Jesus, but in reality, he’s only John the Baptist.

D.C. gets its chance this afternoon.

It appears that Trump’s antics, most notably his allegations about the rigged system, impacted turnout just enough to cost the GOP the two Senate seats in Georgia. Now what?

Well, of course, he’s going to lose today, too. The question is whether the Georgia result will have an impact on the 2024 presidential hopefuls who are sitting on the fence, including the always ambivalent Marco Rubio. My guess is that it will, and the GOP civil war will intensify, at least in the short run; the PBP tax cuts are now in jeopardy, and they will blame the crazoids for it.

Mitch McConnell, Minority Leader? You have to like the sound of that as much as he dislikes it.

With one exception, the potential 2024 candidates have reacted predictably to the plan to object to the electoral vote. Cruz and Hawley are sucking up to the Trumpist base and gambling that no enduring damage will be done to the system by their opportunism; Sasse is behaving like the genuine conservative that he appears to be; and Marco Rubio is waffling, as he always does on important issues. The exception is Tom Cotton, who makes the argument that the GOP can’t afford to create a federal override to a state-based system that overwhelmingly benefits them. From his perspective, he’s right, of course. But what does this tell you about the kind of campaign he plans to run in 2024?

That he places a high value on PBP votes and contributions, and that he plans to win back the extreme Trumpists with incendiary, authoritarian rhetoric. What other choice will he have? It will be impossible to get the nomination without strong support from the base.

You may well wonder why the diehard Trumpists continue to spout their ludicrous theories about widespread election fraud in light of their abysmal record in court. How can they believe these stories?

They don’t. What they really believe is that people in urban areas–largely minorities–aren’t real Americans, and shouldn’t have the right to vote. They know, however, that to say that openly would invite savage criticism and ridicule, and has no basis in law. They consequently use “fraud” as a dog whistle for disenfranchising their opponents.

Call it a Republican form of PC. At some point in the fairly near future, however, I predict that you are going to see one or more prominent Republicans man up and openly call for depriving urban residents of the vote. After all, Trump has shown that there is little cost to breaking down decency barriers; why not trample this one?

Brexit was fundamentally a battle of identity politics. On the one side, you had elderly grandmothers serving as volunteers at the local cathedral who regard British history and the imperial past with great fondness. On the other hand, you have a younger, more ethnically diverse population which views the British Empire with guilt and embarrassment and which valued its easy access to Europe.

Granny won. The irony is that Granny, in spite of her feelings about British imperial history, has no desire to engage with the rest of the world; she just wants to keep the foreigners out and the UK white. The empire that she values is a memory, not an ambition.

The vaccine reservation program in Florida.

A significant number of prominent business executives are calling for Congress to certify the results of the election without further ado. The Chamber of Commerce concurs–understandably so. Uncertainty is bad for business.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the PBP/Reactionary deal? Maybe, but don’t hold your breath. Neither side can win national elections, and thus get what it wants out of government, without the other. In addition, they have a common enemy in the far left.

Delays and increased costs in the movement of people and goods. No protection for financial services. A new border of sorts between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. New ammunition supporting the Scottish independence movement. Lost heft and expertise in negotiating trade agreements. There’s no doubt about it: the UK is a big loser with Brexit. The economic and political costs will be felt immediately, and for decades to come.

But the EU loses, too. The UK was a voice for liberal democracy and free trade in an entity in which these ideas are now in peril. The EU will miss it as a bridge to the US. The British net financial contribution is now gone, and will have to be made up somewhere else. Finally, Brexit is tangible evidence that all is not well with the EU, and that its future is cloudy at best.

So much losing! The man on golf cart should be pleased. He would be if he could take his mind off his own troubles.