Cromwell

For sixteen eventful years, Angela Merkel wore two important hats: German Chancellor and de facto leader of Europe. They came with different responsibilities, and pulled her in different directions. Now that she is gone, what is her legacy with each job?

As Chancellor, I think it is fair to say that she played a good hand reasonably well. The economy had been revived by the SPD labor reforms and by Chinese demand for German products by the time she came into office. She rode with the tide, never pushed the voting public too far, held off extremists, and frequently stole the SPD’s clothes during her tenure in office. At the time of her departure, Germany is clearly the great power in Europe, and is more prosperous than ever, but it suffers from a lack of investment and increased inequality. A more dangerous Russia looms, and China is no longer a reliable trade partner. The next few years are likely to be bumpy for the new coalition.

As the leader of Europe, her objectives were to keep the EU afloat and impose German values on it to the maximum extent possible. She barely succeeded at the former–the UK is gone, but Greece is still there–and ultimately failed at the latter, winning the ill will of the Greeks, Italians, and others along the way. She had no answers for the emerging illiberal democracies within the EU, and ultimately agreed to a number of very grubby compromises to keep immigration from getting out of hand. With Merkel’s departure, Europe is a project led by a visionary without the clout to make his dream happen–Macron. But the EU will continue to muddle through, because it always has.

The bottom line is that Merkel’s legacy is a mixed bag. But then, whose isn’t?

I think it is fair to say that the MSM’s coverage of Biden–particularly his economic record, but also including Afghanistan–has been relentlessly negative for most of the year. Some left-leaning commentators are puzzled by this; others think the MSM have an obligation to downplay the administration’s real problems in an effort to preserve liberal democracy from the GOP. For his part, Ross Douthat believes the MSM would only make Trump’s case for him by appearing to behave in a partisan fashion. Who is right here?

This is not as complicated as it seems, for the following reasons:

1. The MSM are only focusing on the issues of the moment, as usual. We hear and see stories about inflation and supply chain problems every day; naturally, that tends to drive Biden’s poll numbers down. What we don’t hear is a reminder that, if you look at the big picture, everyone is better off today than at this time last year, due to rapidly rising employment, as well as the stimulus and enhanced UI benefits which created a large pool of savings that is currently contributing to some extent to inflation. The legitimate criticism of the MSM here, in other words, is that it should be talking about the big moving picture, not the snapshot.
2. Douthat is essentially right about the role of the MSM as to their coverage of Biden. Once again, however, the big picture is that the GOP is an openly insurrectionist party, not a normal opposition. The MSM have a duty to avoid false equivalence and make sure the electorate is kept aware of the qualitative differences between the two parties when it has reason to compare them.
3. The MSM’s coverage of the big Biden bills has focused almost exclusively on their cost and the difficulties involved in getting them through the system. That makes about as much sense as talking about the cost of a car without discussing what you get in return. The problem is not the administration’s “messaging;” it is the MSM’s reluctance to get into the appropriate level of detail regarding the benefits of the legislation, largely due to laziness. Inform the public as to both the costs and the contents of the spending programs and let the voters decide.

Once Roe is finally dead, you can anticipate a rush to adopt abortion prohibitions with few if any exceptions in the red states. There will be some perfunctory discussion about exceptions for rape, incest, and the like, but most of the new statutes will be very close to absolute prohibitions. This may look like terrible politics, but the reactionaries will take the position that they haven’t paid any price thus far, and that the electorate is already as polarized as it can get, so the risk is minimal.

At first, this may appear to be true. At some point, however, the MSM will start running horror stories about the plight of women who have been denied abortions. There will be a new groundswell of opposition to the law inspired by these stories. The law will be modified accordingly.

That’s what happened in Ireland. It will happen in Texas, too.

As I noted in a post about a year ago, Putin could invade and take Ukraine at any time of his choosing. His purported concern today–that he fears NATO expansion into Ukraine–is ludicrous, and he knows it. So what is he trying to accomplish, and why is this happening now?

As important as Ukraine is to Putin, it is never the entire picture; he is also concerned about domestic politics, about portraying Russia as a great power, and about splitting the EU and NATO. All of these factors are undoubtedly present here. Russia is struggling with the virus; he is facing a potent anti-vaxxer opposition; there is a new and untested government in Germany; and the American withdrawal from Afghanistan wasn’t exactly glorious. There is undoubtedly opportunity here to make trouble and profit from it.

Will he invade? I doubt it, because it would involve taking lots of casualties and assuming the costs of occupying Ukraine for the indefinite future. The new EU and American sanctions would hurt, and NATO would be united in its opposition. Better to keep turning the pressure on and off and hope that Ukraine falls into his hands without an invasion at some point in the future. In the meantime, he can show strength both at home and abroad, take the attention of the Russian public away from the virus, create a narrative in which Russia is in danger from NATO, and test the stoutness of the new German PM and FM. He can put an end to the crisis whenever he likes, so what’s the risk?

As I’ve noted many times before, the GOP is the party of the dollar store economy, because it benefits businessmen and the elderly, the party’s two most important constituencies. Low wages are a key component of the dollar store, because they keep profits up and prices down. As a result, the GOP’s efforts to brand itself as a party of working people depend solely on the culture wars; Republicans have no case on the structure of the economy.

The Great Resignation has put the dollar store under great pressure; wages and prices are on the rise. What can the GOP do about it? Numerous red states cut the enhanced unemployment benefits early, but that had no real impact on employment. What now?

Be patient and starve them out. They’re living on their dwindling savings at this point. All you have to do is wait and cut the already miserably low state unemployment benefits to the point where they have to go back to work at whatever wage employers are willing to pay. At that point, the dollar store will return with a vengeance, and all will be right in the world–at least, for you and your voters.

Two years ago, I did a post in which I discussed the choices facing a fast food restaurant owner confronting a new $15 minimum wage. He could: cut staff and hope his customers didn’t object to a lower level of service; raise prices; replace some staff members with machines; or accept lower profits. The pandemic and the Great Resignation have put him in exactly the position I hypothesized. How is he responding in the living laboratory?

As I predicted, by selecting several of the options. In the short run, he is cutting staff and raising prices. In the longer run, investments in labor-saving technology are skyrocketing. The one thing he is not doing is living with lower profits. Hence, the performance of the markets, even in a pandemic with a labor shortage.

Germany is a prosperous country with a reasonable government and no tradition of faux libertarianism. And yet, a militant anti-vaxxer movement thrives there. You can also find one in other wealthy European nations. It is even spreading to Australia and New Zealand. What does that tell us about the roots of contemporary reactionary thought?

That Trumpism–at its core, a faux libertarian movement based on toxic masculinity–isn’t limited to America. That, in turn, tells us that the shift to a knowledge-based economy, which is a global phenomenon, is a threat to the status of men all over the world.

I voted for Dole in 1996 because I suspected a second Clinton term would be marked by scandal and failure. I was right, and I have never regretted that vote.

Is it going too far to call Dole the last reasonable and decent member of the GOP? I don’t think so. Even outliers like Mitt Romney and Susan Collins believe in regressive tax cuts regardless of the circumstances and historical evidence. The mainstream, of course, is now an openly insurrectionist party which stands only for toxic masculinity and whatever thought flits through Donald Trump’s head at any given time.

Trump and Netanyahu opted for “maximum pressure” in the hope of forcing regime change, or at least a complete reversal of policy, in Iran. We were told that sanctions would work, and were a viable alternative to war. This was, of course, a lie, and now the Israelis have to live with the consequences of it. The Iranians are much closer to a bomb than they ever were in the Obama years.

It does not appear, as of today, that Biden’s negotiations with the Iranians are going to succeed. What then? Here are the choices:

1. America and Israel, notwithstanding decades of rhetoric to the contrary, learn to live with an Iranian bomb. Deterrence is the order of the day, just as it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
2. Israel, possibly with American help, starts “cutting the grass” with the Iranian nuclear program. A low level war of indefinite duration looms.
3. Israel and/or America annihilates Iran with a nuclear first strike. The problem disappears.

The weakness with #3, of course, is that it would normalize the use of nuclear weapons, to the benefit of the Russians, North Koreans, and other bad actors. Eliminating the short term problem only creates a much larger one in the future.

What this really does is tell you how lame nuclear weapons really are as a bargaining chip. If we do threaten the Iranians with nukes, they won’t take it seriously. That is why the most likely outcome is “cutting the grass.”

By all accounts, starvation looms for millions of Afghans. The combination of the withdrawal of American aid, which represented a huge proportion of the country’s GDP, the freezing of assets, and a drought is creating a humanitarian disaster. What should America do?

There are two massive obstacles to an American aid program:

1. The Taliban want a godly Afghanistan, not a prosperous one. Mass starvation simply isn’t a big deal to them. If Allah wills it, who are they to argue?
2. Afghanistan is a client state of Pakistan, which has devolved into a vassal of China. As a result, any aid to the Afghans, no matter how it is structured, ultimately helps subsidize Pakistan and China.

The Chinese are fond of reminding people that they are a large and powerful country. They typically do this by bullying smaller countries. It is time for them–not America–to step up to the plate and actually do some good outside their own boundaries.

The three dissenters will be writing both for the general public and for posterity. My guess is that there will be three separate opinions. The key questions for them are:

1. HOW FAR SHOULD WE TAKE THE POLITICAL HACK ARGUMENT? I will predict that Sotomayor will pull no punches. The others will be more circumspect, not wishing to burn their bridges with the “conservatives” or inflict damage on the Court.
2. DO WE RELY ON THE ROE ANALYSIS OR THE GINSBURG EQUAL PROTECTION ARGUMENT? The former is the current law; the latter has more popular appeal and may be more compelling. The problem with equal protection, however, is that it logically leads one to the conclusion that the state has no right to regulate abortion at any stage of gestation. That won’t fly with a public that mostly wants some sort of reasonable compromise on the issue.

I think we will see more equal protection than right of privacy in the dissents, although there will be some of both.

Think of the Dobbs case as a cascading series of legal questions, starting with the most general and provocative to the most limited:

1. Is a fetus a “person” entitled to protection under the Fourteenth Amendment?
2. Is there a right to privacy, as held in Roe and Griswold?
3. If so, does it include the right to an abortion, as held in Roe?
4. Is that right unqualified during the first trimester?
5. If Roe was improperly decided, should the Mississippi law still be overturned on the basis of societal reliance?

The majority will decide as follows, taking the questions in reverse order:

1. All six “conservative” (only Roberts is a real conservative; the rest are reactionaries) justices will find that reliance is not an adequate basis to continue to follow Roe. Expect lots of references to Plessy v. Ferguson, the fact that Roe was controversial from the beginning, and the joys of federalism in the opinion. The last of these will be an embarrassment to reactionaries when they try to prohibit abortion on a national level. In footnotes and at the conclusion of the opinion, the Court addresses the political hack argument, to the satisfaction of no one.
2. The six “conservatives” will all find that states can regulate abortion very strictly in the first trimester. On this point, expect arguments that both society and medicine have changed since Roe, thus justifying a different outcome. There will also be mention of the fact that most abortions occur before 15 weeks.
3. Roberts breaks from his right-wing colleagues on this point; he tries to hold the decision to its facts and keep a shadow of Casey in place. The majority relies on history and constitutional text to hold that there is no federal constitutional right to an abortion–period. Roe is completely extinguished.
4. Sensing the political dangers involved in overturning Griswold, the Court does not say that there is no right of privacy, although some of the concurring opinions suggest as much.
5. The majority opinion says nothing about the personhood argument. Thomas and Alito reference it approvingly in passing in their concurring opinions.

My guess is that Barrett writes the majority opinion. What do the dissents say? Tune in tomorrow.

A fertilized egg has no heart. Nor does it have a brain, or limbs, or any other organs. It can’t think, feel, communicate, propel itself, or feed itself. It in no way resembles a complete human being. And yet, Ross Douthat argues that, because it is a living thing in the process of becoming a fully functional human, it must be treated as a person. Is he right?

No. Douthat bases his argument on the condition of the extremely sick and old, who at some point are likely to lose, either temporarily or permanently, some of the functions that most of us associate with humanity. I just don’t accept that someone who has all of the organs necessary to be human, who have used them for many years, who still have use of some of them at all times, and who may recover the use of the rest of them after a short interlude, should be treated the same way as something which only potentially has any of the attributes of humanity. It’s not the same thing.

What Douthat really believes is that the soul is created at conception. Since that is a religious argument with little appeal for NYT readers, and which has obvious First Amendment implications, he avoids it. But it is what it is. There is no point in pretending otherwise.

The right loves to complain about the values supposedly promoted by Hollywood. The fact is, however, that making movies is about the green, not the red or the blue. Hollywood’s principal interest is in reaching mass audiences with spectacle; offending half your potential customers is hardly a smart business practice. Most of the money in Hollywood is consequently spent on expensive superhero movies which have no ideological content, and can even be enjoyed by Chinese audiences.

In light of that, does it make sense for the right to expend any energy trying to censor movies? Probably not. The internet, the MSM, and the universities are more promising targets. Just boycott the movies you don’t like. The executives and the money men will get the message.

Michelle Goldberg made the case for abortion rights in yesterday’s NYT. In a nutshell, she argues that the right believes fervently in the sovereignty of the individual human body in all cases except those in which regulatory burdens fall exclusively on women. Abortion rights are thus a matter of freedom and equality for women. This line of reasoning follows an argument made by Justice Ginsberg, not the majority in Roe.

Ross Douthat, in a lengthy column published the same day, acknowledges the equality argument, but makes two points in response. The first is that it should be possible for society to redistribute the legal and practical burdens of unwanted parenthood in a reasonable and fair way without resorting to abortion; the second is that the recent relevant past shows that women can make progress in economic and civic life without relying on abortion, so abortion rights are not a necessary element of equality. Is he correct?

There are two serious shortcomings in the first argument–one conceptual, and one practical. The conceptual problem is that, even if one created an ideal society in which unlimited additional resources were provided to women who are compelled to give birth against their will, there is no possible way to eliminate the pain and danger associated with carrying a child, or to redistribute that burden to society as a whole. Requiring fathers to pay child support and writing the criminal law to exempt mothers from liability for abortions just doesn’t do the trick. Second, the argument is made in bad faith, because Douthat, regardless of his personal sympathies, is perfectly aware that his party has absolutely no interest in raising taxes to improve the lot of mothers of unwanted children, or of the children themselves. To the GOP, as I’ve said many times before, the misery associated with most unwanted pregnancies is a necessary deterrent to inappropriate sexual activity. The misery is the point, not just unfortunate collateral damage.

As to the second argument, the correlation between the slow social advancement of women and declining abortion rates proves nothing, because there is no control on the experiment. We cannot know what the overall impact to women would have been if abortion had been more readily available.

Douthat also contends that fertilized eggs are unquestionably individual human beings in his column. I will address that argument in a separate post tomorrow.