Cromwell

Ross Douthat will allow that the Florida Disney retaliation bill is probably poor policy and may be struck down as a First Amendment violation. In general, however, he thinks it’s OK for large corporations to lose their special privileges for speaking out against conservative legislation. Is he right?

No, for two reasons:

1. While the creation of the Reedy Creek Improvement District is an obvious and extreme example of a “special privilege,” the vast majority of retaliatory actions the government can take will involve tax code provisions that pertain to an entire class of businesses. To call these “special privileges” would be misleading at best.
2. It is inappropriate, and not permitted by the First and Fourteenth Amendments, for the government to deprive anyone of anything just because he expressed a political opinion that is unpopular with a particular official or political party. To overturn that rule would be to threaten a fundamental principle of liberal democracy.

In the early stages of the pandemic, apart from showing an inappropriate preference for his older constituents, DeSantis’ record was fairly unremarkable. That changed, however, when he saw political advantages in throwing his support to the anti-vax movement. As a result, he prohibited school districts, local governments, and even businesses from imposing mask and vaccine mandates on employees and consumers, talked up bogus cures, and spread doubts about the efficacy of the vaccines. He even refused to say whether he had been vaccinated or not. On the whole, then, his record is even worse than Trump’s. His “freedom” agenda meant freedom for the virus, and unnecessary deaths for vulnerable Floridians.

How should the Democrats make this point? First, they need to find a reputable study that identifies the number of unnecessary deaths for which DeSantis is responsible. Then they need to run lots of ads featuring haggard nurses in which they tell the world DeSantis has blood on his hands. They might even make the point that DeSantis claims to be “pro-life” on the abortion issue, but only cares about the lives of the unborn. That would be another twofer.

Increasingly among the far-right crowd, “Make America Great Again” means turning our country into a facsimile of Orban’s Hungary. How would Trump or DeSantis go about doing it?

The key elements of the Orban regime are:

1. Extreme gerrymandering;
2. Using public funds to reward key supporters;
3. Politicizing law enforcement, vote counting, and the judiciary;
4. Finding appropriate scapegoats for your failures; and
5. Gaining effective control of the media, including the internet.

As to #1, the state parties and the Constitution itself have already accomplished as much as can be done. On #2, Trump has already shown the way with his tariff regime. #3 has already been partially accomplished, thanks mostly to Mitch McConnell; you only have to pick the right law enforcement people to finish the job. Liberals, foreigners, and illegal immigrants make great scapegoats. But what about the media?

Musk’s acquisition of Twitter is right out of the Orban playbook. Gaining control of the media in America will be more difficult than it was in Hungary, given the First Amendment and the size and number of influential media companies. It can be done, however. Just use the regulatory tools at hand to harass your opponents unmercifully, persuade the Supreme Court to loosen the standards for libel cases, and get your plutocrat friends to buy the companies at a discount. Once that is accomplished, your position will be unassailable.

DeSantis and the Florida Legislature have just approved a bill prohibiting virtually all abortions–even for rape and incest victims–after 15 weeks. Relative to some other red states, this is actually a fairly modest change, but do not be fooled. The GOP is simply banking its assumed winnings with the Supreme Court; it will be back for more if the Court completely overturns Roe.

How should the Democrats deal with the issue on the campaign trail? By running lots of commercials featuring testimonials from attractive women about how the loss of abortion rights will ruin their lives. Focusing on the rape and incest issue would be particularly useful. Imagine, if you will, a rape victim talking about how painful it would be to carry the perp’s child to term, and thus endanger her life, at her own expense due to the GOP’s unwillingness to provide her with affordable health insurance.

That’s what I call a twofer.

While Americans as a whole have benefited from globalization and technological change, nobody seriously doubts that millions of us have been left behind. Where do the factions stand on helping these people?

1. CLs: They need to uproot themselves and move to where the jobs are. That’s what our ancestors did when things dried up. Subsidizing losers is a bad investment and reduces freedom.
2. CDs: Saving suffering communities is a very high priority. Strengthen the safety net and invest in infrastructure and education to bring jobs to these areas.
3. PBPs: What a silly question! Cut taxes for businesses that move to these areas, and watch the money flow!
4. Reactionaries: Tariffs are the answer. They’ll bring our jobs back.

In light of this dissonance, is it any wonder the GOP has no plan to address the problem, other than to complain about government regulations?

DeSantis has amassed more power than any governor of Florida in my memory, and is using it exclusively to limit the rights of anyone who disagrees with him. In addition to weakening tenure rules, prohibiting university employees from serving as witnesses against his government, censoring math textbooks for no obviously good reason, imposing criminal penalties on parties with no direct involvement in violence at demonstrations, prohibiting local governments and businesses from imposing mask and vaccine mandates, creating a new elections police force to investigate bogus claims of fraud, and supporting invalid legislation directed at tech companies and minority voters, DeSantis has now done the following:

1. Persuaded the Florida Legislature to leaving the drawing of legislative districts to him, in spite of clear legal requirements to the contrary; and
2. Rammed through legislation explicitly punishing Disney for its advocacy of LGBTQ rights, an obvious violation of the First Amendment.

In short, freedom for me and mine, and cudgels for thee and thine, regardless of what the state and federal constitutions require. How should the Democrats respond? By calling him out as an American Orban, of course. If that’s his goal, he should be made to own it.

On the GOP governor Ron.

With the right he’s developed a bond.

He’ll have nothing to do

With LGBTQ

And he wants CRT to be gone.

In an alternative universe, Mitch McConnell, who was genuinely outraged by the events of January 6, could have rounded up enough votes in his party to convict Trump and put an end to his political ambitions–forever. But he took the path of least resistance, and what did he get for it? Biden and the Democrats are looking extremely vulnerable, and Ron DeSantis is looking strong in the bullpen, but he has Trump campaigning against his candidates and working to replace him as the putative Majority Leader. To the extent the Democrats have much of a chance in 2022, it all revolves around Trump and his intense desire to relitigate the past. Was keeping the Trump votes on board on a temporary basis worth it?

In the end, the answer will be no, because the Trump voters had nowhere else to go, and would have come home in any event. If Mitch isn’t kicking himself, he should be.

One day in the recent past, prompted by Fox News, millions of old white people woke up and figured out that their grandchildren weren’t like them. They were too touchy-feely, too tolerant of racial minorities and gays, and insufficiently tough and self-reliant. The public schools quite obviously were to blame. Something had to be done.

Ron DeSantis is doing it. He’s banning math textbooks for being too progressive. He’s terrorizing teachers and school districts by subjecting them to vague prohibitions about racism and LGBTQ people. He’s cracking down on tenure in the state universities. He’s trying to turn students into proper reactionaries like himself.

How should the left deal with this? By accusing him of trying to destroy the public school system, which, of course, has been an objective of some elements of the right for decades. Why else would you make teaching more stressful at a time when teachers are leaving the profession in droves?

Teachers, like cops and firemen, are popular with the general public. Attacking the guy who attacks them, particularly in a pandemic, can work.

Notwithstanding all of the stories in the MSM about the anger in la France profonde, in the end, Macron won by a large margin. Should we take that to mean the extreme right will suffer a similar fate in our own country in 2024?

No, for four reasons. First, the extreme right is far less entrenched in France than it is here, due largely to the popularity of fundamentalist Christianity in the US. Second, Trump/DeSantis will have the backing of a much larger and well-established political party. Third, Macron could count on support from business interests; Biden can’t. Finally, there is no Electoral College in France. The 2020 election was close even though Biden won the popular vote by seven million votes.

The bottom line here is that right-wing populism, like a vampire, is difficult to kill once and for all. For now, we can breathe a sigh of relief and wait for the next challenge.

Unlike Trump, Ron DeSantis is a pure reactionary. He doesn’t cut taxes for business; he fights culture wars 24/7. It’s working, at least for him. He’s the most likely GOP nominee if Trump decides not to run.

Since Florida’s economy is doing reasonably well, and DeSantis can’t plausibly be held responsible for inflation, his Democratic opponents in the gubernatorial race have no choice but to deal head on with the culture war issues. This is a strategy that most left-leaning politicians have avoided in the past. How can it be done successfully?

I will be addressing specific issues in future posts. Here are some general observations:

1. Be aggressive, not defensive. Always be on the attack.
2. Find a simple narrative and stick to it.
3. Make sure you define the question in a way that is consistent with your interests. Don’t fight on the other side’s battlefield.

If you think this sounds like a GOP playbook, you’re right. It invariably works for them–why not the left?

It appears that the new Russian offensive is directed at Ukraine’s Black Sea coast as well as the Donbas. Does that make sense?

Yes. While expanding the Rust Belt breakaway republics does little or nothing for Russia, taking the coastline would have a major impact on Ukraine’s economy and would increase Putin’s negotiating leverage. Don’t be surprised if a battle for Odesa becomes the turning point in the war.

Ross Douthat cites survey results which indicate that a far greater proportion of Gen Z members identify as LGBTQ than their parents or grandparents. He divides public opinion on this issue into three groups: one that celebrates this development; one that deplores it; and one that thinks the issue will resolve itself appropriately in time. He wants the last group to join with the second group in supporting measures such as Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill, but fears that the power of PC will prevent them from speaking out.

Here are my thoughts on the issue:

1. I don’t want to oppress or discriminate against LGBTQ people. I do not, however, accept the notion that there is no such thing as “normal,” and that heterosexual people are just “cisgender.”
2. As a result, I do not welcome the results of the survey, if they are being described accurately. No measure of “cancel culture” can stop me from saying that.
3. I have no great desire, however, to use the power of government to regulate sexual attitudes or behavior in the absence of evidence that anyone is being injured.
4. It is highly unlikely that the increase in LGBTQ people has anything to do with teaching in public schools.
5. Consequently, I do not think it is appropriate to terrorize teachers and school districts at a time when teaching is already becoming more difficult, and large number of teachers are leaving the profession. “Don’t Say Gay” won’t accomplish its ostensible objective; it will only make everyone except reactionary parents miserable.
6. Of course, it is perfectly possible that the right is playing a longer game here– to use culture war issues to destroy the public school system and replace it with a voucher scheme. After all, Rick Scott always refers to public schools disdainfully as “government schools.”
7. If state governments ever succeed in replacing “government schools” with vouchers, and thus make schools accountable to parents instead of the community as a whole, I have no interest in paying for the new system. Why should I, if it doesn’t reflect my values, and I have no children in it?
8. The increase in LGBTQ children is probably due mostly to the information and culture available on the internet.
9. This is the same internet that facilitates the dissemination of fake news about the rigged 2020 election by the right. When the social media companies attempt to control the avalanche of lies generated by the right, they are accused of “censorship.”
10. The right is oblivious to allegations of hypocrisy, as evidenced by the use of pro-choice slogans by anti-vaxxers. As a result, it would be a mistake to assume that the battle against LGBTQ people begins and ends in public schools. The next frontier will involve censorship of the internet by red state governments, and, if possible, by the federal government.
11. That’s part of the GOP end game here. The other part is the old tactic of throwing red meat to the base in order to elect Republicans, who will then vote for tax cuts for business.
12. I can’t support politicians like DeSantis who promote legislation such as “Don’t Say Gay,” even if I have a slight degree of concern about Douthat’s statistics, because I know where this legislation fits in the bigger picture–not because of “cancel culture.”

A note to my readers: I will be out of town until April 23. Regular posts will resume the following day.

So the war rumbles on in Ukraine.

It’s looking a little like Spain.

Volunteers rushing in;

Both sides desperate to win;

And the world sorely misses the grain.

We have seen a rash of articles and columns proclaiming that Ukraine means the end of the latest round of globalization, much as Sarajevo meant the end of the last round. Is that accurate?

Yes and no, but mostly no. Globalization has been in retreat for about a decade. The Brexit vote, the Trump victory in 2016, the Trump tariffs, and the international response to the pandemic all indicate that globalization has been on the back foot for years. America and China are both determined to decouple from each other, although the process is likely to be slow and nuanced. Ukraine is just another stone on a pretty well-defined path.

That said, the effects of the last round of globalization will not be overturned completely. American companies may diversify their supply chains, particularly with regard to goods with clear relationships to national security, but they aren’t going to withdraw from China altogether. Consumers here and elsewhere aren’t going to want to give up the benefits of low prices for goods. The forces supporting the status quo are stronger than you might think.

In short, don’t hold your breath waiting for the textile mills in South Carolina to reopen because Putin invaded Ukraine. It isn’t going to happen. Those jobs are gone for good–and, to a lesser extent, for ill.