Cromwell

Joe Manchin is probably feeling pretty good about himself right now. Why wouldn’t he? I suspect he regrets his vote on the pandemic relief bill, but he supported just enough blue team legislation over the past year to make the session a success, while consistently reining in the excesses (as he sees it) of his party. Based on the outcome of the election, he can plausibly claim to stand exactly where the American people are, which is a good place to be. But what now?

Manchin apparently won’t support the use of reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. One assumes he thinks there are enough responsible Republicans in the House to do it in 2023. That’s wishful thinking. While the moderates in the Democratic Party always win in the end, because the progressives will take a half loaf over nothing, the extremists drive the GOP train, because the leadership consistently prioritizes party unity over the welfare of the country. It has been that way for years; it will be much worse in 2023.

In short, if we have to rely on Kevin McCarthy to save us from Republican nihilism, God help us all.

With a substantial lead in the polls, much higher name recognition, plenty of money, and a national organization already in place, Trump will go into the primaries as the favorite. He probably shouldn’t be. His weaknesses exceed his strengths, and his beloved base represents a minority of Republicans, to say nothing of the electorate as a whole.

Trump’s best chance is to take whatever action is necessary to keep the base in line, while hoping that DeSantis has competition in the establishment lane, as in 2016. To that end, here’s what I would advise him to do:

1. WIN THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM: No one, and I mean no one, in American politics can plumb the depths of indecency like Trump. If he persuades DeSantis to follow him, he will win the race and keep the base on his side.
2. RON THE RINO: Accuse DeSantis of being disloyal and equivocal about January 6. Don’t let up until he gives a firm response about the “rigged” 2020 election. Anything he says on the subject will damage him with some part of the GOP electorate.
3. DESANTIS IS WEAK: Trump has made a living portraying his opponents as wimps. DeSantis will give him plenty of ammunition. Talk about fossil fuels, guns, and the border as often as possible. DeSantis will be trying to bridge the gap on these issues; Trump can make him look bad with the base, which brooks no compromise.
4. TRY TO MAKE UP WITH THE MURDOCHS: Completely losing Fox News would be a disaster. Do whatever it takes to at least keep the Murdochs neutral.
5. THE TRUMP VACCINE: DeSantis was actually more irresponsible than Trump on covid. Go after him, not for his battle on mandates, but for his position on the “Trump” vaccine, which continues to cost some Floridians their lives to this day.

How does DeSantis beat Trump? I will give him my recommendations in a future post.

Due mostly to the fact that he is the governor of a state whose economy depends on clean water and unspoiled beaches, DeSantis is about as close to an environmentalist as you can find in the GOP. Not that he would admit it, of course. But plenty of people in Florida will give him credit for measures protecting water quality, and he managed to slip some money into the state budget for climate change adaptation without any fanfare.

The problem is that this sort of “Don’t ask, don’t tell” approach to climate change will expose him to attacks from both the left and the right. Trump, who completely dismisses climate change as a Chinese hoax, will say that real men love fossil fuels and that DeSantis is weak on the issue. Most of the base will follow him on that point. The Democrats, on the other hand, will complain that he doesn’t take climate change seriously enough.

In short, this issue is going to be an albatross for him from this point forward, and there is no obvious way out. Expect him to argue that all energy sources matter and wrap himself in the energy independence flag to minimize the damage.

Pelosi and Schumer have come to the Oval Office to talk about the future. Biden is happy to see them.

B: Remember when Barack talked about us getting shellacked in 2010? It sure didn’t happen this time. In some ways, we actually won!

P: Yes, although we shouldn’t take that too far. The Republicans actually won more House votes than we did. That’s not a good sign.

B: Still, when you consider what has happened in midterms in the past, this was a good result.

S: Agreed.

B: So what do you think we should do now?

P: The most important thing is for you to use your superpower.

B: Which is?

P: Looking moderate and counterpunching. Letting the Republicans show themselves to be the extremists they are. Just like you did with Trump in 2020.

B: Yeah, we’ll have to wade through a lot of malarkey from the House over the next two years. Fortunately, I’m used to it. It’s the same stuff we had to deal with in 2011, except this time, it’s going to involve my son. That’s going to be hard for me.

S: Unless someone can talk Manchin into supporting reconciliation, we’re looking at a huge debt crisis early next year. It’s going to be important not to give in on anything important in that process. Caving will be bad for the country; it will just demoralize our side and encourage more ransom demands.

B: Got it, but if we can make a deal that’s just symbolic, I would probably do it. What else should we be looking at over the next two years?

P: We should be making Social Security a big issue. Propose making the system more financially stable by raising the income cap on the tax. Force the Republicans to either cave or take a position on it that the public will hate.

B: That makes sense. What else?

S: Be prepared to go to war over the Supreme Court if we get a boatload of reactionary decisions next year. We need to put term limits on the table.

B: I’ll look at that if it happens. Anything else?

P: Not really. We need to get the bipartisan elections and gay marriage bills through the lame duck session. After that, other than Social Security, it’s mostly about playing defense and letting the Republicans rip themselves to shreds.

B: OK. Have a great holiday! (They leave)

January 6 is, of course, the ultimate wedge issue for the GOP, and a particular problem for DeSantis. If he criticizes Trump’s actions, he alienates the man on golf cart’s following and diminishes his chances of winning a general election; if he doesn’t, he turns off moderate opinion and essentially admits that Trump should already be president, which destroys the rationale behind his candidacy. What should he do?

He’ll equivocate. He’ll do anything possible to avoid answering the question. He’ll diminish January 6 and change the subject. That’s what he’s been doing all along. Why would he stop?

The Democrats have been trying to force GOP candidates to give straightforward answers to the January 6 question for two years in order to split the extremists from the moderates. Ironically, now it will be Trump who will be doing the same thing. Whether he succeeds or not may determine the outcome of both the primaries and the general election.

DeSantis doesn’t have a background in business, and doesn’t seem to have much sympathy for businessmen. His battles against “woke capital” have played a larger role in his campaigns than business tax cuts and deregulation. He’s clearly not a budget cutter. As president, would he be a national conservative?

Possibly, but I wouldn’t bet on it. DeSantis is going to be begging for support from the GOP establishment in a battle against Trump. He could get it, but only if he falls into line on regressive tax cuts and deregulation. I think he will find that a price worth paying.

I’m most thankful this year for things that didn’t happen, including the following:

1. Sure, my house was flooded by storm surge during Ian. But I’m not living in an RV or a tent, and I wasn’t there to experience the disaster in person. It could have been a lot worse.
2. Rebuilding will be expensive, but I have insurance, so I won’t have to pay for it out of my own pocket.
3. It may be cold here, but at least I don’t have to drive or fly anywhere for the holiday.
4. The GOP might have won a tiny majority in the House, but they didn’t win the Senate, and the most prominent 2020 election deniers lost.
5. The USMT might have blown a lead against Wales, but things aren’t so bad; I could be a fan of Germany or Argentina.

And so on. Happy Thanksgiving!

When Matt Damon told us that “Fortune favors the brave,” he should have added, “but only if they aren’t stupid.” Crypto has no inherent value, is backed by nothing in particular, and serves no useful purpose for anyone other than criminals. Given its weaknesses, and lacking reasonable regulation, its collapse was completely predictable.

It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that its supporters were primarily right-wing libertarian types. Let’s hope they lost lots of money on it.

Given his record, I’m amazed that Trump wasn’t involved in some way.

Opposition to abortion, which used to be a unifying idea among Republicans, has become a wedge issue after Dobbs. The party has two factions: genuine pro-lifers, who won’t brook any thought of compromise, but who typically are open to improvements in the welfare state for the benefit of women; and pragmatists, who will only push the envelope far enough to remain in power, and who have no interest in expanding the welfare state for anyone. How will DeSantis try to bridge the gap?

Trump, based on his public statements and his past behavior, is a pragmatist. DeSantis consequently risks nothing by taking the same position. His actions in Florida–supporting further, but relatively mild, restrictions–are consistent with my prediction. He will give us lots of pro-life rhetoric to keep the base happy, but deliver little in practice.

Some commentators think the 2024 GOP primaries will resemble those of 2016, with Trump running in his own lane and the right-wing establishment fragmented by a large number of candidates. Are they right?

Maybe–the number of legitimate opposition candidates remains to be seen. That said, the dynamics of the primary season will be completely different this time. In 2016, if you weren’t paying attention, you could believe that Trump was a brilliant outsider businessman, unencumbered by ideology, who could and would make deals to make America great again. No one will make that mistake this time around. Trump will be running purely to vindicate his outrageous behavior in office and to avenge himself on anyone who didn’t give him his unquestioning support. There will be nothing in the package for the American people–not even those in his party.

What a difference 18 years makes! In 2004, George W. Bush did everything he could to put anti-gay rights measures on state ballots, because he knew that anything related to LGBTQ was a wedge issue for Democrats and drove up turnout among white Christians. In 2022, 12 GOP senators voted for a gay marriage bill. Gay marriage is now a wedge issue for the GOP.

How will DeSantis try to bridge the gap in his party? He won’t, because he’s too closely identified with the anti side, what with his “groomer” statements and all. He will use the issue to inflame the base and hope that it doesn’t hurt him too much in the general election, if he gets that far. He will take comfort in the results of the Florida election. He probably shouldn’t; America is not Florida.

The midterm election was an unequivocal victory for liberal democracy in America. The most prominent 2020 election deniers lost, and lacked either the ability or the nerve to bring their partisans out on the street to overturn the results. Does that mean the danger is over?

No, for two reasons. First, as I noted in a series about a year ago, the real risk of a truly rigged election is at the state legislature level, and the “independent state legislature theory” is alive and well at the Supreme Court until proven otherwise. Second, Trump has a unique emotional connection with the violent right-wing extremists, and the presidency, unlike any other state or federal office, is worth an insurrection, from the reactionary point of view.

In short, this story won’t be over until we see what happens in 2024.

As we know only too well, Trump practically worships Putin, and loathes Ukraine. While the faction of his party that would follow him over a cliff has fallen into line, the mainstream did not; as a result, GOP leaders consistently tied themselves in knots trying to justify his behavior without looking too hypocritical. But what happens in the 2024 primaries? What will DeSantis say?

Ukraine is a bit of a wedge issue for the GOP. DeSantis will have to find a way to provide strong support for the Ukrainian government without alienating the crazoids more than necessary. One imagines he will do this by demanding more accountability in how the money is spent.

Opposition to Russia is deep in the DNA of most Republican voters. If DeSantis manages to pull off the high wire act, this will be a winning issue for him against Trump, who is way too compromised to find his way back to safety.

The answer to a bad guy with a gun isn’t, it seems, a good guy with a gun; it’s a brave gay guy without one.

UPDATE: It turns out the guy who took the gunman down was a vet, and wasn’t gay. However, he did have some assistance from a drag queen.

BEAT HIM

He told us, “Don’t you ever come around here.”

“Don’t want to see your face, you better disappear.”

The fire’s in his eyes and his words are really clear

So beat him, just beat him.

___________

You better run, you better do what you can.

You gotta take on Trump, the whiny macho man.

You wanna be tough, better do what you can

So beat him, or our lives will be bad.

_____________

Just beat him (beat him), beat him (beat him).

Trump just needs to be defeated.

Showing how evil and sick is your fight.

It doesn’t matter if you’re left or right.

Just beat him.

Beat him.

_____________

You have to show him that you’re really not scared.

He’s playing with our lives, this ain’t no truth or dare.

He’ll kick you, then he’ll beat you

Then he’ll tell you it’s fair.

So beat him, or our lives will be bad.

_________________

Just beat him (beat him), beat him (beat him).

Trump just needs to be defeated.

Showing how evil and sick is your fight.

It doesn’t matter if you’re left or right.

Just beat him.

Beat him.

__________

Parody of “Beat It” by Michael Jackson