Cromwell

We scraped through 2022.

We won’t be sad to say adieu.

Inflation and the hurricane;

The past year brought us lots of pain.

_________

We rode through Ian in NC.

We watched it unfold on TV.

We hoped our house would dodge the flood,

But storm surge left it full of mud.’

____________

To winter here was not the plan

But we will do the best we can.

We have no other place to go

So I’ll relearn to shovel snow.

_____________

In politics, a stalemate.

The blue team dodged a far worse fate.

With battles looming over debt

Our nation ain’t seen nothing yet.

_____________

My wife chose working over rest.

The Land of Oz; Horn in the West.

Darcy now is five years old.

She’s adjusting to the cold.

_______________

I’ll leave this on the brighter side.

This year we traveled far and wide.

Texas, Chi-town, and D.C.

Boston, MD, NYC.

___________

We won’t miss 2022.

We send our best to all of you.

By this time next year we should see

A better 2023.

By March 2024, even Trump could see the handwriting on the wall. The math was remorseless. He was going to lose to DeSantis.

His rage was incandescent. It was bad enough to lose to “Sleepy Joe,” but DeSantis? The man was his creature! He made him a governor, and a celebrity! And now this? It was intolerable!

Since Trump had no allegiance to the “corrupt” Republican Party that had turned on him and rigged the election, he seriously considered running a third party campaign to split the right-wing vote and deny DeSantis the presidency. It was what the man deserved, after all. But Trump’s pragmatic side prevailed, for once; he knew he didn’t have the juice for another unsuccessful campaign, and DeSantis potentially had the power to give him something he wanted–a pardon.

Trump contacted DeSantis and used his leverage, as he had so many times in the past. While he would not appear on stage with DeSantis at the convention or campaign for him, he would agree not to run as a third party candidate or to support the Democrats in exchange for the promise of a future pardon. DeSantis quickly accepted the deal, thereby making his future presidency (if it happened) corrupt in the eyes of most of the public from Day 1.

Did Trump keep his promise not to diss DeSantis? Did the burn it down crowd hold its collective nose and vote for DeSantis in November? For the answers to those questions, read my predictions in 2024.

Trump’s 2016 primary opponents–the Class of 2016, if you will–had two things in common: a raging ambition to be president; and an intense desire to avenge themselves on the man who had humiliated them for the past several years. Seeing blood in the water, most of them plunged in. They were joined by Larry Hogan, who had his own tiny lane and nothing better to do, Rick Scott, who mistakenly believed the GOP electorate was panting for him and massive budget cuts, and DeSantis. It was a full field, to be sure.

Trump started with the advantages of money, name recognition, and a fanatical base. He hoped to play his opponents against each other. But Fox immediately threw its support to DeSantis, and his opponents spent all of their time attacking him, thus wearing him down. Worse, even Ted Cruz ultimately agreed to surrender and support DeSantis. It was a two man race by March.

The numbers told the story–Trump was doomed. What would he do next? Would he gracefully bow out of the race and give DeSantis his complete support?

I will answer that question in my next post, but really, if you have any understanding of Trump, it answers itself.

Putin made a deal with the Russian people: stay out of politics, and I’ll give you stability and some measure of freedom and prosperity. Xi offered the Chinese people the same deal, but with less freedom. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, made no such bargain; as far as they’re concerned, they speak for God, and the will of the population is irrelevant.

All three autocracies are stumbling. Putin initiated a disastrous war and so broke his bargain; the Chinese people are out in the street complaining about covid policies; and opposition to the Iranian regime becomes more dangerous by the day. This is due to two things: autocrats–even the competent ones–are far from infallible, and usually double down when they should retreat to avoid looking weak; and the desire for at least some minimum level of individual freedom and prosperity is universal.

Take note, American admirers of autocracy.

Here is where the two GOP titans stand with the factions:

1. REACTIONARIES: Trump has effectively split them into two groups. The “Burn it down” crowd will support him through thick and thin; its members view his outrageous behavior as a way of keeping faith with them. The Constitutional Reactionaries mostly agree with his agenda, but deplore his unattractive personal qualities and object to January 6. They think America can be returned to the 1950s without any dramatic change in liberal democracy.
2. PBPs: They generally despise Trump, but appreciate his support for business tax cuts and deregulation. Their relationship with Trump and DeSantis will be purely transactional.
3. CLs and CDs: The CDs, once a mainstay of the party, have mostly left it over the last decade. There are very few genuine CL voters.

The bottom line here is that Trump cannot win a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis with just the “Burn it down” vote because it doesn’t represent a majority of the party. DeSantis has the Constitutional Reactionary vote in his pocket. The CLs and CDs won’t come out in large enough numbers to matter much. The key questions are whether DeSantis can win over the PBPs by adhering to strict GOP orthodoxy on tax cuts and deregulation, and whether additional candidates will split that vote and throw the election to Trump.

If you were a pop music fan in the late 1970s, the line was clear: you were either a Fleetwood Mac or Eagles fan. Personally, I was a Fleetwood Mac guy. I still am, so this hurts.

Ironically, her music lives on in commercials for electric cars. I imagine she would be surprised by that.

If you’re looking for some cheap entertainment, get on YouTube and watch the segment from “The Dance” in which the band plays “Silver Springs.” Stevie and Lindsey are recreating the drama in their personal lives, while Christine plays on with an incredibly bemused look on her face. It’s priceless. So was Christine.

An optimist would look at the first two years of DeSantis’ term as governor and conclude that he is a cynical, ambitious opportunist who inadvertently stumbled into the reactionary political brand that he now wants to ride to the White House. Once in office, he would govern as a competent mainstream Republican. You might see some performative actions against the left every now and then for the benefit of the base, but they would be practically meaningless. He doesn’t represent anything like the threat to the country that Trump does.

A pessimist looks at the last two years of DeSantis and sees the Hungarian Candidate: a man who will single-mindedly use the power of the federal government to deprive his opponents of as many legal rights as possible. He may not be the same kind of overt threat to our institutions as the American Caligula, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous.

Which view is correct? I’m honestly not sure. I will say one thing about it, however. There were plenty of people in 2016 who thought Trump was a brilliant, pragmatic businessman whose worst instincts would be curbed by the Axis of Adults. To cite a more extreme example, there were also plenty of Germans in 1933 who believed that Hitler was just a clownish nationalist demagogue who would be controlled and manipulated by the military and conservative industrialists. We know how that turned out.

In short, it is too dangerous to give DeSantis the benefit of the doubt. He’s the Hungarian Candidate until proven otherwise.

Elon Musk is a self-proclaimed “free speech absolutist.” Yesterday, however, he endorsed Ron DeSantis, whose brand is using the power of the state to stifle free speech from people on the left.

What should we make of this? The most logical conclusion is that Musk has decided that Sewer, like Florida, is a place where wokeness comes to die. He absolutely supports the free speech rights of Nazis, but not you and me.

Like most Republicans, DeSantis has a difficult choice to make. If he alienates the extreme right, he loses votes he might well need in a tight general election, but if he doesn’t, he loses support from moderate swing voters. The answer may be to identify one particular group and have a “Sister Souljah moment,” while leaving the others alone. Which group should he choose?

The clear answer is QAnon. Those people are just weird. They can’t possibly represent that many votes, can they?

Reactionaries and tech billionaires are fundamentally different kinds of people. Reactionaries are deeply pessimistic about the future, and want to return to an allegedly more just society from the past; tech giants, on the other hand, are optimists, and think improved technology is the solution to all of our current problems. So why are some of the billionaires gravitating to the reactionary side?

Because they have common enemies. Both sides think the “coastal elite” and the “administrative state” are hamstringing them with rules and keeping them from creating the purer society that they envision. The purer society may be different, but the obstacle is the same.

The GOP majority in the House, when it is all said and done, will be no more than nine. That means the leadership will only be able to lose a handful of votes at any given time. It makes every GOP House member the equivalent of Joe Manchin.

How will that play out? The far right will be expecting to drive the train, but the moderates have a hammer, as well. Will they use it?

Don’t hold your breath. As I have noted in previous posts, the power in the GOP lies with the extremists, because the moderates value power and party unity over everything else, including the welfare of the American people. There is no reason to believe that will change in the foreseeable future.

As you would expect, my advice to DeSantis is largely the inverse of what I suggested for Trump. However, there are a few items that are unique to him. Here is the list:

1. SIGN A NON-AGGRESSION PACT WITH THE OTHER CANDIDATES: You can avoid a repeat of 2016 by getting the other non-Trump candidates to agree to drop out and support you once it becomes obvious that their cause is hopeless. That’s how Biden won in 2020. Of course, you may be dealing with Ted Cruz, so your task will be more difficult than Biden’s.
2. I’LL TAKE THE HIGH ROAD, WHILE YOU TAKE THE LOW ROAD: Don’t criticize Trump in public. Let your surrogates call him a corrupt narcissist, a dictator, and a loser.
3. PATRONIZE TRUMP DURING THE DEBATES: Cruz had some success with that in 2016. Tell the world that Trump had some great ideas in his day, but that he’s just too old, and that the torch should be passed to a new generation of reactionaries.
4. PUT THE FAMILY FORWARD: You suffer from a severe charisma deficit. Your wife and kids can help with that.
5. MIND THE GAP: Find the policy sweet spots that bridge the gap between the primary and general election voter pools.
6. GO FOX HUNTING: If the Murdochs openly support you, you probably can’t lose. Do whatever you must to keep them on your side.
7. CHANNEL YOUR INNER MARK MCGWIRE: When Trump demands to know whether you think the 2020 election was rigged, respond by saying that you’re only here to talk about what you can do for the American people in the future; the past is dead and gone. Stick to that line no matter how hard you are pushed.

Joe Manchin is probably feeling pretty good about himself right now. Why wouldn’t he? I suspect he regrets his vote on the pandemic relief bill, but he supported just enough blue team legislation over the past year to make the session a success, while consistently reining in the excesses (as he sees it) of his party. Based on the outcome of the election, he can plausibly claim to stand exactly where the American people are, which is a good place to be. But what now?

Manchin apparently won’t support the use of reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. One assumes he thinks there are enough responsible Republicans in the House to do it in 2023. That’s wishful thinking. While the moderates in the Democratic Party always win in the end, because the progressives will take a half loaf over nothing, the extremists drive the GOP train, because the leadership consistently prioritizes party unity over the welfare of the country. It has been that way for years; it will be much worse in 2023.

In short, if we have to rely on Kevin McCarthy to save us from Republican nihilism, God help us all.

With a substantial lead in the polls, much higher name recognition, plenty of money, and a national organization already in place, Trump will go into the primaries as the favorite. He probably shouldn’t be. His weaknesses exceed his strengths, and his beloved base represents a minority of Republicans, to say nothing of the electorate as a whole.

Trump’s best chance is to take whatever action is necessary to keep the base in line, while hoping that DeSantis has competition in the establishment lane, as in 2016. To that end, here’s what I would advise him to do:

1. WIN THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM: No one, and I mean no one, in American politics can plumb the depths of indecency like Trump. If he persuades DeSantis to follow him, he will win the race and keep the base on his side.
2. RON THE RINO: Accuse DeSantis of being disloyal and equivocal about January 6. Don’t let up until he gives a firm response about the “rigged” 2020 election. Anything he says on the subject will damage him with some part of the GOP electorate.
3. DESANTIS IS WEAK: Trump has made a living portraying his opponents as wimps. DeSantis will give him plenty of ammunition. Talk about fossil fuels, guns, and the border as often as possible. DeSantis will be trying to bridge the gap on these issues; Trump can make him look bad with the base, which brooks no compromise.
4. TRY TO MAKE UP WITH THE MURDOCHS: Completely losing Fox News would be a disaster. Do whatever it takes to at least keep the Murdochs neutral.
5. THE TRUMP VACCINE: DeSantis was actually more irresponsible than Trump on covid. Go after him, not for his battle on mandates, but for his position on the “Trump” vaccine, which continues to cost some Floridians their lives to this day.

How does DeSantis beat Trump? I will give him my recommendations in a future post.

Due mostly to the fact that he is the governor of a state whose economy depends on clean water and unspoiled beaches, DeSantis is about as close to an environmentalist as you can find in the GOP. Not that he would admit it, of course. But plenty of people in Florida will give him credit for measures protecting water quality, and he managed to slip some money into the state budget for climate change adaptation without any fanfare.

The problem is that this sort of “Don’t ask, don’t tell” approach to climate change will expose him to attacks from both the left and the right. Trump, who completely dismisses climate change as a Chinese hoax, will say that real men love fossil fuels and that DeSantis is weak on the issue. Most of the base will follow him on that point. The Democrats, on the other hand, will complain that he doesn’t take climate change seriously enough.

In short, this issue is going to be an albatross for him from this point forward, and there is no obvious way out. Expect him to argue that all energy sources matter and wrap himself in the energy independence flag to minimize the damage.