Category: Uncategorized

I made five predictions for 2023. How did they turn out? Would I have made money in Vegas?

Four of the five were correct. The debt ceiling issue was resolved by a coalition of Democrats and GOP moderates; the Supreme Court counterrevolution picked up steam; inflation eased, in accordance with my two-year rule; and Biden chose to run again. The fifth one was a fail, however; the DeSantis campaign is on life support.

I was perfectly aware of some of DeSantis’ shortcomings as a candidate, but I never imagined he would pick unpopular positions and limit his appeal to the voters who weren’t available to him. I also didn’t see that Trump would benefit from, as he and the base see it, being crucified by the deep state on a daily basis. I don’t think the dynamic of the campaign would be substantially different if the indictments had not occurred, but it is possible that it would have been. We will never know.

The Biden impeachment process is a wedge issue for the GOP. On the one hand, the base is demanding it as revenge for the two Trump impeachments, and Trump wants it to strengthen his spurious claim for false equivalence. On the other hand, impeachment is likely to galvanize a largely demoralized left, and it is nothing but poison for GOP House members in swing districts. Thus far, the leadership has bridged the gap by keeping the process going, but very slowly. What happens if the base will no longer take no for an answer? What would the process look like?

My guess is that Johnson and McConnell will treat it as the embarrassment it is and avoid public hearings to the maximum extent possible. Hunter Biden will not be given an opportunity to speak to the American people. The decision will be made on the existing written record, and as quickly as possible. The “trial” will be a pro forma event, Biden will be acquitted, and we will go on from there.

Next Christmas will be like none other in my lifetime. Why? Because we will be living with one of two realities: if Trump wins, we will be looking forward to at least four years of fascism; and if he doesn’t, he will claim the election was rigged, and he will call for another insurrection to keep himself out of jail. This time, the battle will be at the local level, and will be far more serious, as the extreme elements of the red team will be locked and loaded and will have the support of some state and local officials and law enforcement agencies.

So enjoy Christmas 2023. Savor the moment. Eat, drink, and be merry. There isn’t anything we can do about next year until it’s here.

So we’re hurtling towards the new year.

I can’t say that I’m brimming with cheer.

Trump fills me with dread.

Is democracy dead?

We won’t know till November is here.

The Supreme Court has refused to conduct an expedited review of Trump’s ludicrous immunity defense. That means his March trial is likely to be postponed until the bulk of the primary season is over. Here are my observations on the issue:

1. Obviously, this will help Trump win the nomination. What it means for the general election is unclear.
2. DeSantis may decide to stay in the race even after a Florida humiliation in the hope that things will change after a trial. That probably helps Trump, too, by keeping his opposition divided.
3. If Trump really believed in his innocence, he would be demanding a quick trial. The fact that he is playing stall ball speaks for itself.
4. Trump’s defenses can be evaluated without a record, so the usual reason for rejecting an expedited process does not apply here. Is the Supreme Court simply trying to avoid dealing with a hot potato until it has no choice, or is it actively attempting to assist Trump? We don’t know the answer to that yet.
5. Trump will be demanding an expedited review of the Colorado Supreme Court decision on the Fourteenth Amendment issue while he is stalling on the criminal defenses. Will the Court find that the public interest attached to keeping him on the ballot is so strong that it will grant his request? If it does, and I think it will, how will it justify bending the rules for Trump, but not the DOJ and the electorate as a whole?

Trump insists he has never read “Mein Kampf.” For once, I believe him. “Mein Kampf” is a book, after all. Trump doesn’t do books. If you distilled it into a few bullet points–maybe.

The question then is, how did he come up with the “poisoning the blood” and “vermin” phrases? Did he make them up himself? Did he find them on his social media platform, Lying Psycho? Or was he just pick them up when he was hanging with some of his Nazi friends?

I don’t know the answer to that, although I would be leaning towards one of the final two possibilities. Either way, I don’t take any comfort from Trump’s failure to explore the actual source; the phrases speak for themselves.

Trump has big, big plans for the military in his second term. Homeland Security doesn’t have anything like the resources he needs for his immigrant scheme, so he will be using the military to build the wall, construct and staff the new migrant camps, and, in all likelihood, conduct raids. In addition, he will be relying on the military to crush dissent, particularly in blue states. Finally, he will be waging war against Mexico. It’s an ambitious agenda.

Most of this, of course, will be totally illegal, but there is no reason to believe the political or the legal system will do much to stop him. Only the military can, by refusing to obey unlawful orders. Will they?

Let’s hope we never find out.

Donald Trump made it clear during his presidency that he considered the performance of the stock market, not the polls, the most accurate reflection of his public approval. He governed that way, too; his tax cut, which ostentatiously put the interests of capitalists even above wealthy wage-earners, was a bonanza for the rich.

During the 2020 campaign, Trump predicted that the market would collapse if Biden won. He was wrong–grotesquely so. And so, a few days ago, he complained that the records that are currently being set on Wall Street were just making a bunch of rich guys richer.

Take it from the guy who wants to impose a 10 percent tariff on imported consumer goods and use it for another corporate tax cut–that’s a terrible state of affairs.

He was obviously insane, because, based on his behavior, he clearly thought he was living in America.

The reliably wrong progressive Tressie Macmillan Cottom acknowledges that unemployment is very low, inflation has reached reasonable levels, real wages are rising, and inequality is falling. Nevertheless, she insists that the economy sucks. Why? Because prices are higher than they were two years ago, and the welfare state–particularly with regard to child care–hasn’t been expanded to compensate.

Two observations are pertinent here:

1. The welfare state was, in fact, expanded during the pandemic years. The expansion was temporary, due to resistance, not from Biden and the Democrats, but from a united GOP and Joe Manchin. Wouldn’t it make more sense to attack the GOP on this issue than to whine about the failures of the Democrats?
2. To the very limited extent that Biden has any responsibility for inflation, it revolves around the economic impacts of the pandemic welfare state expansion that Ms. Cottom thinks was so essential.

What alternative is the left proposing here? I don’t see one that makes sense.

The Trump/Rubio approach to Maduro and Venezuela didn’t result in regime change; it only caused lots of misery. Millions of Venezuelans, seeing no future in their country, decided to try to immigrate to the US. They put a huge strain on our system. Trump and the GOP are benefiting from the problem that they effectively created.

It’s sickening.

I don’t expect the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to throw Trump off the primary ballot to survive US Supreme Court scrutiny. The real question is whether the Court will use a broad or a more limited rationale to justify its decision. An order finding that the Fourteenth Amendment doesn’t apply to primaries, based on the political system that existed in the 1860s, would not have much of an impact on public opinion, or the ongoing criminal trials; a decision, based on the record made in Colorado, that January 6 was not an “insurrection” would be much more meaningful. In a bad way.

The Court would be wise to avoid making broad pronouncements on January 6 at this stage of the process. Will it take my advice? We’ll see.

(It’s 5:00 on December 24. Bob Cratchit is working in his cubicle at Scrooge, LLC when the boss, in “managing by walking around” mode, comes by.)

C: Mr. Scrooge, sir.

S: What is it . . . (he ostentatiously looks at the nameplate on the cubicle) . . . Cratchit?

C: Can I have tomorrow off, sir?

S: Why in the world would I do that?

C: Why . . . because it’s Christmas, sir.

S: Not in China, it isn’t. How am I supposed to compete with those people and their low labor costs if I give people like you unnecessary days off?

C: Actually, the Chinese get a whole week off for Chinese New Year. We should never have come back to the office, anyway. The pandemic might officially be over, but the virus is still out there, and I might get sick and give it to my child. He has special needs, you know.

S: (Sees a picture of Tiny Tim in the cubicle) Is that him?

C: Yes, sir.

(Scrooge walks around the office with an exaggerated limp)

C: There’s nothing funny about it, sir! He’s in really bad shape! If he gets the virus, it could kill him!

S: I don’t have time for that political correctness crap.

C: You sound just like Donald Trump, sir.

S: No, I don’t. Don’t get me started on him.

C: You’re not supporting him?

S: Of course not! I don’t want to burn everything down. I have too much to lose. Insurrections are bad for business. So are Trump’s stupid tariffs. Besides, he wants to run my business, and force me to suck up to him. I don’t need that.

C: What about DeSantis?

S: Way too much wokeness, and too little on tax cuts and business support. He has no idea what my business is like, and he doesn’t care. The Disney thing was a real turnoff, too.

C: Haley?

S: The best of a really bad lot.

C: Isn’t there anyone out there you really support?

S: My hopes died when Rick Scott didn’t run. Now I’m going to be forced to choose between a guy who wants to raise my taxes and a guy who will use government to attack me if I say anything bad about him. It’s the worst of all possible worlds.

C: That sounds really sad.

S: Kind of like your kid.

C: So what about Christmas?

S: As long as Biden’s still running the country, I don’t have much choice. Otherwise, he’ll be trying to get you people to unionize. He might even show up on the picket line.

C: So I get the day off?

S: Sort of. There will be a Zoom meeting at noon. I’ll text you the password.

C: Thank you, sir.

S: Don’t even think about ghosting me!

(Cratchit leaves)

There is a huge generational divide within the Democratic Party. Older leftists tend to be liberals, not progressives; they have an expansive view of freedom of speech, traditional views on gender, and support Israel, and are willing to live within the constitutional limits created by the McConnell Project. Young progressives are less patient with the limits in the current system and are, in a word, predominantly woke. They have tolerated Biden and the liberals up to this point for three reasons: they fear Trump, as they should; they know they’re not a majority of the party as it exists today; and the party has delivered at least some of the goods over the last 16 years. Unlike the far right, they’re not nihilists, so they’re willing to vote for half a sandwich over nothing at all.

This will change after the 2024 election. If Biden wins, it is unlikely he will be able to accomplish much during his second term, which will make the progressives even more restless than they are today. They will view–correctly–the filibuster, the Supreme Court, and GOP gerrymandering as being the root of the problem and will demand action. If Trump wins, he will be declaring war on the progressives, who will be his most prominent opponents. They will be expecting gratitude and solidarity for their pains in 2028.

So who will be the nominee? The blue base wants someone young and charismatic, with a vision of massive change for the country on both social and economic issues. Whoever it is will fit that bill.

If you are an optimist, and you therefore assume that Trump won’t win and declare himself dictator for life, the GOP will need a new candidate in 2028. The reactionary base, which currently belongs solely to Trump, will be in play for the first time in twelve years. Who will inherit Trump’s followers the next time around?

It won’t be DeSantis–he’s already burned too many bridges. It won’t be Ramaswamy, even though he is ideologically compatible, because he’s too annoying and too Indian. It won’t be Trump’s female VP; the base thinks women in America have way too much power over men already. It won’t be anyone from the Class of 2016; they’re too old and too untrustworthy. Who is left?

I see three potential winners here: Tom Cotton, who gives Trumpism an authoritarian twist that will go over well with a certain element of the base; Josh Hawley, who actually supports a populist economic program that should appeal to white workers; and Don Jr. If the base wants a monarchy, and it might, Don Jr. could be a serious contender.