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There was a time–possibly during my lifetime–when people relied heavily on the local newspaper for their political opinions, having few other sources of news. Those days are gone, probably never to return. As a result, there is a case to be made for refusing to provide endorsements; after all, if you aren’t going to sway public opinion, and you may piss off a large portion of your readership, what’s the point?

But the timing of Jeff Bezos’ decision not to endorse in the presidential race makes it clear that his motivations were completely different; he was afraid of angering Trump, and he didn’t want to face any form of retaliation. Read your own paper, Jeff. Democracy dies in darkness; it also dies when powerful people cut deals with authoritarians to save their own skins.

The Conservatives were crushed in the UK election. Extremists on both the right and the left dominated the French one. The German left-leaning coalition is clearly heading for electoral disaster. Now even the Japanese Liberal Democrats have lost their majority. All over the world, it seems, the electorate is angry. What appears at first glance to be a wave of populism is actually an attack on incumbents, regardless of who or where they are.

For all that, Harris has a roughly 50 percent chance to win next week. Why? For three reasons. First, the American economy is in good shape in spite of what most voters say in public. Second, the American electorate is more polarized on cultural issues than its Asian and European counterparts, which creates a high floor and a low ceiling for both parties. Donald Trump is the third reason. He inspires intense opposition in a way that the leaders of parties in other countries do not.

For better or worse, Sherrod Brown is a genuine economic populist, unlike the faux kind that the Republicans keep running out against him. He has been airing biting commercials describing his latest opponent as a wealthy car salesman who will say anything to get elected. He is more likely than not to win, even in an Ohio that is now deep red.

What is the message here for Democrats? Joe Biden did his level best to pass himself off as a similar champion of labor, but he wasn’t rewarded for it. Part of that is because he was (wrongly) held responsible for inflation, while Brown, as a mere senator, was not; part of it was Biden’s inability to command the stage and persuade the public that his record on the economy was a good one; and part of it was the fact that Biden had to speak for booming blue states as well as struggling red ones. Populism doesn’t play as well in California as it does in Ohio.

The Israeli strike on Iran was limited to suitable military targets. It is unlikely to lead to a wider war. Why?

Because the Israelis figure they can handle the proxies by themselves, but they need the active support of America before they go after the head of the snake. Biden won’t give them a blank check. Harris probably won’t, either. Would Trump? My guess is yes, but, for all of his personality issues, he’s not really a warmonger, so the answer is TBD.

Agrarian populists made three demands in the 1890s: increased regulation of the railroads; a larger money supply; and free trade. This platform was perfectly sensible and was completely consistent with the economic needs of the farmers. Most of it became law in the long run.

Today, the descendants of the 1890s populists are among Trump’s biggest supporters, because he assures them that they, the hardworking white Christians, are true Americans, and we are not. But Trump’s agenda includes the deportation of illegal immigrants, business deregulation, and tariffs, more or less the polar opposite of what the 1890s populists required. The former will deplete the agricultural workforce; the latter will invite retaliation against American farm products and thus dry up export markets. If the Trump agenda is implemented, therefore, it will be an economic disaster for his strongest constituents.

But we know how this story ends. Trump will reward them for their loyalty. Huge sums of our money bearing his name will be sent to them as compensation. The formerly self-reliant farmers will become wards of the state at our expense, while continuing to lecture us about how anyone who supports a robust welfare state isn’t a real American.

George Washington, as the story goes, couldn’t tell a lie. He was dignified and reserved. He had good taste. He hired the best people to work for him and kept them on as long as possible. His sense of public service was off the charts. He was an unbelievably brave man and a military hero. In the end, he walked away from power and returned home willingly–even enthusiastically. He deserves to be known as the father of his country.

Now, imagine someone who is the opposite of that in every respect. Oh, that’s right; you don’t have to imagine him. He’s the GOP nominee for president.

In 2016, nobody, including Trump, expected him to win. This time, we know the election is a coin flip, and we might lose. In addition, we have no illusions about the quality of the man who will be our next president. The next four years will be awful; the only question is whether it will be first term awful, or fascist awful.

Here is how we need to respond:

1. DON’T BLAME THE ELECTORATE: About half of the GOP, and a quarter of the electorate, genuinely wants to burn down American liberal democracy. The rest is voting for the economy of 2019. They may be deluded, but they’re not evil. They will turn on Trump when he fails.
2. PICK YOUR BATTLES CAREFULLY: There are some things we won’t be able to change. For example, support for Ukraine will be over, and the criminal cases against Trump will disappear. Don’t waste energy on these issues; just prepare to pick up the pieces when the nightmare ends.
3. MAKE TRUMP WEAR HIS FAILURES: Trump will probably start his term as the most unpopular president in American history. His tariffs and his deportation scheme will make matters worse with the element of the population that just wants him to wave his imaginary magic wand and make inflation disappear. Give his failures the maximum degree of publicity and drive his numbers down even further. The rest of the GOP will take notice.
4. BE COMPLETELY PEACEFUL: The fascist element of the GOP will be looking for a Reichstag fire. Don’t give them what they want. Discipline is essential.
5. BE BRAVE WHEN NECESSARY: It is possible that Trump will order troops to fire on peaceful protesters, and that the military will follow those orders. If it happens, don’t be deterred. Freedom comes with a price tag, after all.

An exhausted Trump has come home to Mar-a-Lago. Lindsey Graham is waiting for him.

T: Why are you here, Linseed? Why aren’t you out campaigning?

G: Arnold Palmer’s penis? Really?

T: It was his hometown. The crowd loved it. It got me on TV. What more could you ask?

G: Is that really the way to appeal to undecided women voters?

T: There aren’t really any undecided voters left to appeal to. It’s all about the base now. The base loves it when I’m outrageous. It assures them I’m not a normal politician, and I won’t sell them out.

G: But all of the polls say the election is razor close. Why would you take the risk?

T: My gut tells me it’s the right thing to do, and it never fails me.

G: What about 2020?

T: I won in 2020. The election was stolen. You remember that, right?

G: Oh, yeah. I forgot. What’s your plan for the end game?

T: Do what I always do. Play the hits. It always works.

G: But the hits are sounding more like fascism every day. Is that really a good idea?

T: Fascism means whatever I say it means. By my definition, Harris is a fascist, and I believe in democracy. I speak for the people and give them what they want.

G: Let’s be real here–at best, you speak for 51 percent of America, and the rest of it hates your guts.

T: The rest of it isn’t real America. Real America loves me. It wants to give me absolute power to inflict pain on the rest. Who am I to argue with them?

G: Do you plan to create some sort of October surprise?

T: Well, I might call Putin and ask him to step up the war in Ukraine. A few big Russian victories would help my cause.

G: Don’t even think about that, much less do it.

T: We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on Russia and Ukraine.

G: Any other ideas?

T: Maybe Bibi would attack Iran’s oil refineries and drive prices up. That would help.

G: Not sure that’s a good idea, either.

T: Well, if you don’t like those ideas, maybe I should just stick to playing the hits.

G: I guess that isn’t such a bad idea, after all. (He leaves)

Like the Founding Fathers, Kamala Harris is a child of the Enlightenment. She processes information and gains knowledge through her senses. She trusts experts, not her intuition. She believes the human condition can get better through experimentation, openness to change, and trial and error.

Donald Trump belongs to a much older philosophical tradition. He basically tells us to ignore the evidence of our senses and just trust him, because he is divinely inspired. You could call it medieval, but that would be an insult to the Catholic Church, which worked hard to create an institutional framework to distinguish saints from frauds. In reality, he reminds me more of some bygone Native American tribal leaders than any figure from European history.

Harris has essentially conceded the point that Americans were better off economically under Trump than they have been under Biden. That doesn’t have to mean she loses the economic argument altogether; she could focus more on Trump’s tariff plans to make it clear that yesterday’s Trump is not really in play.

She has done this–some of her commercials talk about the “Trump sales tax”–but not particularly effectively. She needs to make her anti-tariff case in a much punchier way. Let’s hope we see some of that in the next two weeks.

In the meantime, her commercials citing the statements of former Trump officials about national security and storm assistance are helpful. We need to see more of those for the swing voters, as well.

Donald Trump insists that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the English language. He has called himself a “Tariff Man” for years. And yet, his commercials on the economy make no mention of tariffs at all; they simply call on America to trust him. Why?

Because he has to know, at some level, that the tariffs that will inevitably follow his election will be unpopular, because, regardless of what he says, they will result in inflation. And because he wants the choice to vote for him to be one based on faith, not reason.

Unlike Biden, Harris has multiple paths to victory. Like Biden, however, the most plausible route runs through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump’s postelection shenanigans, if they are necessary, are likely to focus on these three states. Which ones should we most worry about?

There are enough Democrats in key positions in Michigan and Pennsylvania to keep these states from sending an alternative slate of electors to Washington. The legislature in Wisconsin, however, is dominated by the GOP as a result of ruthless gerrymandering. If American liberal democracy has an existential crisis in the next few months, therefore, it is likely to start in Madison (the irony is intentional).

They are both robustly conservative women with conventional views about foreign policy who have been excommunicated by the MAGA movement. And yet, one of them has been campaigning vigorously for Harris, while the other has endorsed Trump. Why?

Because Cheney’s overriding priority is to save American liberal democracy, while Haley still harbors the fantasy of picking up the pieces of the GOP if Trump loses again. For her, ambition trumps patriotism.

Hillary Clinton notoriously struggled with the identity question as a candidate in both 2008 and 2016. In the former race, she tried to run as a man; in the latter, she embraced the historic nature of her candidacy and lost to the embodiment of toxic masculinity. How is Harris handling the issue?

By coming across as a forceful, professional female who can stand up to America’s enemies and by otherwise ignoring the issue. It is the right approach. The millions of voters who will refuse to vote for a woman would vote for Trump for other reasons, anyway. If Harris loses, it won’t be because she’s female; it will be due to inflation, international chaos, and illegal immigration.

Trump horrified allies and foes alike with his discussion of the size of Arnold Palmer’s genitals during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. Why did he do it?

Part of it is impulse control, of course; Trump says anything that comes into his head that he thinks will entertain his audience. But part of it is consistent with his overriding message of strength and masculinity. Trump’s theory of the case is that America craves a strong man to protect it from its enemies, both foreign and domestic. And we know he wasn’t really talking about Arnold Palmer; he was referring to himself.