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Donald Trump really, really hates the EU–much more, even, than the Chinese, who at least have the decency to be led by a strongman. In his eyes, the EU is pious, woke, and wimpy. It has the audacity to regulate American companies. It runs a large trade surplus with us while it free rides on our defense spending. It cares, or at least claims to care, about international law and human rights instead of talking about what really matters–power and wealth. It has to go.

Destroying the EU will probably be one of Trump’s principal foreign policy objectives over the next four years. You can expect him to use divide and conquer tactics–to offer better terms to EU countries with right-wing populist governments that are willing to suck up to him and pay lots of money for protection. As a result, the EU will be split into two groups: one that despises him but for pragmatic or ideological reasons bends the knee to him; and one that despises him even more and responds to his bullying by moving closer to China.

To what extent will Trump succeed? TBD.

The current version of the Supreme Court, as incorporated into the McConnell Project, prohibits the left from wielding power even when it wins elections. As a result, reform of the Court is likely to be front and center during the Democratic primaries in 2028.

But what if the Court, instead of being passive-aggressive, consistently blocks Trump’s most egregious attempts to break the Constitution and liberal democracy? It’s a real possibility, although hardly a given. If it happens, it will be much more difficult for the left to attack the Court in 2028. Reform will effectively be off the table, and the left will be hobbled for the foreseeable future..

On a note related to the Gaza scheme discussed in my last post, Trump wants to create a sovereign wealth fund to use for strategic investments inside and outside of the country. Never mind that there is no revenue source for such a fund or any authorization from Congress–he is planning for it anyway.

Putin runs Russia largely by controlling access to its natural resources. It is a neo-feudal state in which underlings get rich by successfully competing for his approval. Given the size and complexity of the American economy, I never thought anything like it would be possible here, but between the new sovereign wealth fund (controlled, of course, by the omniscient developer-in-chief) and the power to create exemptions and compensation schemes for favored businesses relating to tariffs, we will be moving in that direction.

Let’s deconstruct Trump’s plan to depopulate, occupy, and redevelop Gaza:

1. He wants to remove millions of Palestinians from the area in violation of international law;
2. He wants to resettle them in Egypt and Jordan over the strong objections of the governments of those countries;
3. He presumably thinks those objections can be overcome with threats of tariffs and aid cutoffs even though the aid is provided to further the security of Israel; and
4. Mr. “America First” wants to use American troops and billions of American dollars to remove the rubble and the unexploded munitions, to say nothing of the population, in order to turn Gaza into a new Riviera.

The absurdity of this makes even me gasp. Is the ultimate idea behind this to build a new Trump hotel in Gaza City? Will he justify the scheme by arguing that the vast investment is worth it because he knows how to turn real estate into a big profit? Is America turning into the Trump Organization–now backed by an army and nuclear weapons–right in front of our eyes? It appears so.

Canada’s economy is intertwined with America’s in ways that benefit both countries. It is not a conduit for large amounts of fentanyl or illegal immigrants. So why would Trump threaten tariffs that would damage residents of both countries?

This dispute was, and is, about power, not money. Trump wants the people of Canada to know that, regardless of who their prime minister is, he’s their boss. They can continue to enjoy the benefits of their relationship with America as long as they shut up and do what he says.

He wants them to be Melania.

Assume that you are the domestic manufacturer of a widget with a unit price of $1.00. Further assume that you have a foreign competitor that makes a comparable widget for the same price. Finally, assume that a new tariff has been imposed which makes it impossible for the foreign competitor to sell its widget in America for less than $1.10. What do you do?

You can increase your price by up to nine cents without giving up your new competitive advantage, thus increasing your profits significantly. Under the circumstances, how could you resist?

You won’t. And that’s why the inflationary impacts of tariffs go beyond the impact on the goods that are actually subject to the tariffs unless my final assumption is defeated by a combination of a higher dollar and the willingness of the foreign competitor to accept lower profits. Don’t bet the ranch on that.

While we’re talking about the Stuarts, it is useful to note that Trump’s declaration of bogus emergencies to enhance his powers has an antecedent–Charles I and the ship money case. In fact, it is highly likely that at some point, the Supreme Court will have to decide the same issues that were presented to King’s Bench in the 1630s: what is the legal definition of an emergency; and can a declaration of one be reviewed by the judicial branch?

The precedent suggests dangers for both sides. John Hampden lost the ship money case, but it became one of the grievances against Charles, who ultimately lost his head.

He began his reign by promising a sea change in the culture and an increase in the power of the executive. He weaponized law enforcement and used it against his enemies. He built a large standing army run by members of his political faction. He suspended the enforcement of laws against his allies. In the end, it was too much; the establishment fought back and prevailed.

Is it James II or Donald I? Time will tell.

From nominating unqualified loyalists to cabinet posts to unconstitutionally freezing spending to firing civil servants in violation of federal law, Trump has been pushing the envelope in his first two weeks in office. So far, the response of the GOP majorities in Congress has been very muted. Is that a good idea?

As Sir Thomas More advises Roper in “A Man for All Seasons,” if you cut down all of the trees in pursuit of the devil, there’s nowhere to hide when he turns on you. Who is to say that the FBI won’t show up at your door if you say something to piss off the man on golf cart after Patel is confirmed? What will stop a future Democratic president from using the powers you are conceding to Trump against you and the GOP?

Protecting the checks and balances in the system isn’t just a matter of idealism; it’s a form of self-preservation.

Gabbard and RFK should be easy no votes for McConnell; neither is a reliable Republican, and both have unconventional views on critical subjects that he despises. But what about Patel? Is Mitch prepared to stand up against the MAGA enforcer to preserve the integrity of the system, or will he roll over in the interest of partisan politics?

TBD.

Justin Trudeau sounds genuinely bewildered. Why would America turn on its friends? What is Trump trying to accomplish? Do Americans really want to pay higher prices for everything? Is that what they asked for when they elected Trump?

Sensible questions, all, but they ignore the fact that Trump views all human interactions as power struggles in which the strong try to dominate the weak. If he sees his marriage in that light, why wouldn’t he take the same approach to foreign affairs?

The traditional rationales for tariffs are to protect critical infant industries from unfair foreign competition, to protect national security, and to create a lever to liberalize trade restrictions in other countries. All of these rationales can be applied to at least some goods and services from China. But how many of them make sense for Canada and Mexico?

None. Nada. I can’t wait to hear what Trump’s mainstream economic advisers say about this.

Life in the time of Trump.

The rule of the tech bros.

They want to shatter the deep state.

What comes next, no one knows.

They’re battling the MAGA base.

We don’t know who will win.

And Uncle Donald loves the fight.

They all bow down to him.

To the CLs, American tech supremacy is the natural outcome of a state that minimizes taxes and regulations on business. To the tech oligarchs, it is validation of their right to rule the country; they delivered the goods and should be rewarded for it with power and deference. They earned their right to be the masters of the universe.

With that as background, how should we react to DeepSeek? With a mixture of fear and satisfaction. The Chinese have proved that the low tax, low regulation, tech-friendly state doesn’t have to win the race.

It would, of course, be absurd to blame Trump for the crash, since he has been in office for less than two weeks. Nevertheless, we need to remember that when Trump and Musk talk about making dramatic reductions in the federal workforce and breaking things, there will be real life consequences to the public, and events like this will be one of them.

Just because Musk and Trump think a few disasters here and there are worth the price of admission doesn’t mean we have to agree.