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Thomas Friedman says nothing like it has ever happened before–an American president openly siding with an aggressor dictatorship against a small democratic victim. Bret Stephens called it “a day of infamy.” They’re right. What does it mean in the long run?

Trump is going beyond his old notion of talking trash to get allies to pay their way. He’s identifying himself with the aspirations of dictators against the interests and values of liberal democratic states. Why? Either because he admires and wants to emulate authoritarian systems or because he wants a deal to divide the world with them. Or both.

I’m guessing it’s both. And then we will find out how many of America’s former allies will agree, even under pressure, to become vassal states, and how far Trump is willing to go to coerce the ones who don’t.

David Cameron and George Osborne were CLs. They cut spending everywhere they could, reduced regulations, and relied heavily on the private sector to police itself. As a result, it was easy to draw a direct line between the British government’s actions and the Grenfell Tower fire.

Something similar is going to happen in this country sooner or later. It may be an avoidable plane crash; it may be an epidemic; it may be a problem with the food supply; it may be something else entirely. But the public health and safety will be damaged by Trump and Musk’s chaotic attempts at cutting spending and deregulation, and they will be quite rightly blamed for it.

Musk, in a sense, won’t care; he is prepared to accept collateral damage, and he can’t be voted out of office. But Trump and the GOP will have to deal with the falling polls. My guess is they will do it by showing Musk the door.

On the one hand, there is no way the Democrats can simply acquiesce to Trump’s revolutionary efforts to impound appropriated funds. On the other hand, if they shut down the government, they will be cutting off needed government services to millions of people, immiserating the workforce, and taking the hit for it in the eyes of the public. There are no good choices here. What should they do?

Ultimately, the decision on impoundment has to be made by the Supreme Court. If an agreement can be reached with the GOP leadership on the numbers, the Democrats should make the deal without guarantees, since they will not be forthcoming, but with the very public statement that any evidence of impoundment will be met with litigation.

How would you turn the American military into a right-wing militia suitable for use against your political enemies in the blue states? The first thing you would do is nominate a complete loyalist with strong views about wokeness to be your Secretary of Defense. Next, you would replace the leaders of the military with reliable reactionaries. Third, you would fire the JAGs who might advise the new leaders not to follow illegal orders. Finally, you would identify and run off as many people in the ranks as possible who don’t share your agenda.

Hmmm.

Elon Musk is taking a cat nap on the floor of the Oval Office when Trump arrives.

T: Good morning! How’s the richest man in the world doing today?

M: Great! How’s the most powerful man in the world doing?

T: Great! We’re an awesome team, aren’t we?

M: You bet! The woodchipper is just getting started.

T: We took care of foreign aid. All those liberals are crying a river. They don’t understand that money and power are all that matter in this world. When you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.

M: Right. The environmental agencies, too. They just get in the way. We need to free the free markets and let it rip.

T: Absolutely! Ukraine, too. Before long, we’ll own the part the Russians don’t control. Those poor losers won’t know what hit them.

M: National parks! Who needs natural wonders on this planet when we can go to Mars!

T: You got that right. Real Americans love steel and glass, not trees and waterfalls. We’ll have plenty of skyscrapers on Mars, I’m sure. An even bigger and better Trump Tower!

M: We kicked ass in the VA, too. So much waste and fraud!

T: That might not have been the greatest idea. Vets love me. We need to break things, but not everything.

M: We’ll try to fix that. What’s next?

T: Germany! I hate those people. They sell us cars, enjoy our protection, and give us nothing but lectures in return. Let’s get the woodchipper going as soon as possible!

M: I thought you were German.

T: No. I’m Swedish. Everyone knows that.

M: Then what?

T: California! The enemy within!

M: Can’t you just imagine Newsom being run through a woodchipper?

T: It doesn’t get any better than that! (He leaves to watch programming on Fox; Elon gets back to work)

Even though Trump is an economic illiterate, he seems to understand that the public has far more confidence in a Fed led by technocrats than in politicians. In other words, destroying the independence of the Fed would tank the markets, which would effectively be a no-confidence vote by investors. On the other hand, Trump clearly wants to take control of all of the independent agencies, including the Fed; the unitary executive theory practically demands it. Can he resist grabbing for the marshmallow even though it will cost him in the long run?

The question practically answers itself; Trump can never resist grabbing for the marshmallow. At some point, the Fed is going to refuse his order to cut interest rates, and then things are going to get really exciting.

THE PROPOSAL: No taxes on overtime pay.

RATIONALE: Encourages hard work.

REBUTTAL: As with tips, income is income. This proposal will encourage the manipulation of records for the purpose of tax evasion and will actually deter employers from hiring additional needed employees.

ANALYSIS: This is an exceptionally stupid idea with no obvious constituency.

PROGNOSIS: Forget about it. It won’t happen.

THE PROPOSAL: Exempt tips from taxation.

RATIONALE: This is a progressive measure intended to provide relief to poor workers in service industries. The existing regulations are difficult to enforce in any event.

REBUTTAL: Income is income. Why should service providers get better treatment than manufacturing workers? Most genuinely poor workers don’t make enough money to pay income taxes, anyway. If the regulation isn’t written carefully, lawyers and doctors will soon be working for tips.

ANALYSIS: Most GOP members of Congress won’t like this one, but Trump was very vocal about it, and Harris agreed with him. That means it has a chance.

PROGNOSIS: There is a long and hot debate, but the proposal ultimately fails.

It is inarguable that Trump is crashing through guardrails to amass an unprecedented amount of power for the executive branch. But when and why were these guardrails created?

1. The largest group come from the Watergate era and represent a reaction to Nixon’s perceived abuses of power, although other presidents before him behaved in the same manner. These guardrails include requirements for financial disclosure forms, prohibitions on impoundment, and the independence of the DOJ.
2. Trump is trying to destroy the independence of a variety of agencies that were set up by statute during the Progressive Era and the New Deal. The Supreme Court mostly upheld their independence against allegations of a violation of the doctrine of separation of powers in the 1930s.
3. The civil service protections that Trump is ignoring date back to the late 19th century. They were designed to make government more professional and predictable.
4. Trump’s desire to use the military to round up and deport immigrants will at some point violate a statute that was passed in the late 19th century.
5. Trump’s use of emergency powers echoes actions by Lincoln during the Civil War, although the most important Supreme Court precedent on the subject comes from the Truman presidency.
6. His executive order on birthright citizenship ignores the language in the 14th Amendment, which also dates back to the end of the Civil War.
7. The abuse of the pardon power has its roots in the Constitution itself, which incorporated authority included in the English monarch’s prerogative.

THE PROPOSAL: Eliminate the cap on the SALT deduction.

RATIONALE: It is fundamentally unfair to tax someone on money he is legally required, by no fault of his own, to pay to another government. The cap was only imposed in an inappropriate effort to force wealthy people in blue states to vote against Democrats.

REBUTTAL: Eliminating the cap only benefits a bunch of wealthy people in blue states. It isn’t progressive.

ANALYSIS: The proponents of this reform have all the leverage they need; they can tank the entire bill if they don’t get what they want. Do they have the nerve to use it against their red state colleagues? TBD.

PROGNOSIS: Compromise. The cap is increased but not eliminated.

According to an article I read this afternoon, one of the DOGE employees who has infiltrated our government is a nineteen-year-old kid who identifies himself as “Big Balls” on the web. The article indicated that “Big Balls” leaked confidential information to a competitor of his company when he was a seventeen-year-old intern.

Just the person to whom you want to entrust vital taxpayer information. I guess that’s what Musk means by “meritocracy.”

THE PROPOSAL: Exempt all Social Security payments from income taxes.

RATIONALE: Why put money in one pocket and take it out of the other? Poor seniors need the income.

REBUTTAL: Poor seniors don’t have to pay taxes on Social Security under current law. The proposal only helps affluent seniors. The Social Security trust fund runs out of assets in a few years; this proposal would make the situation even worse.

ANALYSIS: This is a really stupid idea for the reasons listed above. I say that even though I would benefit from this proposal in the short run.

PROGNOSIS: This idea is going nowhere in Congress. It doesn’t have a constituency in the donor class.

To the Fox News crowd, Trump’s first month in office has been an unbroken series of victories. To be sure, the plight of fired federal workers alone is unlikely to create much of a backlash in the nation as a whole. But trouble is already brewing with a wide range of groups that expected better things from him:

1. CONSUMERS: Trump was elected to stop inflation. To that end, he has accomplished precisely nothing, and his tariffs will make things worse.
2. VETERANS: Cuts at the VA will make services worse, not better.
3. NATIONAL PARKS: Republicans benefit from them, too. Indiscriminate mass firings of NPS employees will damage services and hurt mostly red state communities that rely on visitors for revenue.
4. VIRGINIA REPUBLICANS: Mass firings of Virginia residents aren’t going to help the GOP candidate for governor get elected this year.
5. CAR COMPANIES: If the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are implemented, the supply chain will be disrupted, prices will soar, sales will plummet, and workers will be laid off.
6. HISPANICS: Mass deportations and huge cuts to Medicaid aren’t going to win any friends here.
7. UKRAINE SUPPORTERS: No explanation is necessary.
8. FARMERS: Deportations and tariffs are a disaster for American farmers–at least until Trump starts writing checks to them to compensate them for the losses he will be imposing on them.

The real test of the Trump presidency will come when his polls crater and the judicial system resists him. Will he back down or double down with even more authoritarian tactics? TBD.

Patrick Henry viewed the American Revolution as a war against an overweening central authority, not an effort to establish a new nation. He turned down an invitation to participate at the Convention because he disagreed with the mission; he later led the fight against ratification. What if he had decided to go to Philadelphia? He was the foremost orator of his age; would that have made a difference?

If he had broken his promise to keep the proceedings secret, maybe. Otherwise, no. The Founding Fathers were hardheaded politicians; it is unlikely that they would have been swayed by speeches, however eloquent.

The notion of a strong political partisan at the head of the FBI is scary and dangerous. But Patel isn’t just a partisan; he’s a Trump supporter with boundless loyalty to his boss. That means he is a danger, not just to the left, but to wayward members of the GOP as well.

The Republicans who voted for him are going to regret it. I’m looking at you, Mitch; America deserved better from you.