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Up until now, the point of the tariffs and the mass deportations, in the eyes of reactionary visionaries, was to create a massive American labor shortage by encouraging the construction of new manufacturing plants and cutting down the size of the workforce. That would lead to large wage increases, which would make the Godly Society economically possible.

In his NYT column, Cass is making a subtle but important change to this argument. He is now contending that the labor shortage will cause American businesses to invest in new technology, which will result in higher productivity, which will in the end result in higher wages. He is no longer trying to give labor more bargaining power; he is instead making the case for traditional GOP trickle-down economics, albeit from an unusual starting point.

Productivity increases can, in time, result in wage increases. The experience of the last 50 years tells us, however, that the benefits of technological change are not automatically shared equitably between capitalists and labor. In addition, there is no guarantee that technology-forcing will work; small businesses, in particular, will have difficulty finding the money to invest, and will suffer greatly from the labor shortages. Finally, the GOP has traditionally objected to efforts to force technological change as an unwarranted interference in the market. How does Cass propose to get past that political problem?

Oren Cass agrees that Trump is very good at wrecking things. Cass applauds this; in his view, there are plenty of things that need to be wrecked. But now is the time to start building the new order. Kindly Uncle Donald needs to build bipartisan majorities in Congress to create a stable and predictable economic system upon which Americans can rely and invest. Otherwise, the chaos will bring him and the country down.

Either Cass is an idiot or he believes in the power of wishful thinking. There is no kindly, constructive Uncle Donald. Trump’s agenda, above all, is to show the world that he is the boss. He does this primarily through the arbitrary use of power. Working with Congress to create stability and predictability for his new system, to the extent it actually exists, is completely inconsistent with his need to be the center of attention at all times. He would be surrendering power. Why would he do that?

It is likely that the tariff case will be the first really important one involving presidential power to get a Supreme Court decision on its merits. The fascinating thing here is that Trump’s opponent is not some sort of squishy liberal icon; it is the conservative legal establishment representing small business groups. This will be a battle between two wings of the GOP with different views about the executive branch and economics. Call it Trump v. Reagan.

Will the Court, as usual, appease Trump, or will it side with the traditionalists? My guess is that the Chief Justice, who desperately wants to avoid a confrontation with Trump unless he absolutely has no alternative, will decide that this is the wrong place to take a stand. There is little doubt that American liberal democracy will survive the imposition of tariffs by the president, as opposed to, say, the military occupation of New York, so why draw the line here?

The Fifth Circuit judge who dissented in the Alien Enemies case was outraged. The court, he spluttered, was treating President Trump as if he were just another litigant. Trump had to plead and prove his case just like anyone else. How could that be?

Well, Judge Oldham, that’s exactly the point. In your court, Donald Trump is just another litigant, and he is subject to the same rules as everyone else. He’s not a king.

It is fair to assume that Judge Oldham would not have written those same words about Joe Biden. His idea of deference doesn’t apply to the federal government as a whole or just the presidency–it is purely personal to Donald Trump. That’s how MAGA thinks.

The hits just keep coming for Trump and the DOJ. First, a trial court, based on what appears to be a solid record, found that the military violated the Posse Comitatus Act with some of its activities in Los Angeles. This is a narrow, fact-based ruling that won’t keep Trump from sending troops to other cities, but it should have an impact on what they do there. Second, the D.C. Circuit found that the record did not support the firing of an FTC commission for “cause,” which should help Lisa Cook and some other independent agency members. Third, the D.C. Circuit also upheld a lower court decision invalidating most of Trump’s tariffs. Finally–and this one really has to hurt–the staunchly conservative Fifth Circuit ruled that the Alien Enemies Act could not be applied to alleged members of foreign drug cartels.

Not that Trump will care much about any of this. He has already made it clear that he only considers himself bound by the decisions of “his” Supreme Court; even Fifth Circuit decisions don’t count. Whether he will actually comply with a Supreme Court order he dislikes is very much up in the air.

Life in the time of Trump.

The strongmen stood as one.

They sent a message to the world

Trump’s will must not be done.

What did our fearless leader say

When Modi met with Xi?

Not a peep from him was heard

And no apology.

Between the party that believes in government and the party that hates it, the risks of a government shutdown are asymmetrical. Why would the Democrats, for example, shut down the national parks and take the blame for it? It might create a short-term high for the blue base, but that would wear off very quickly.

But there are parts of Trump’s government which clearly do more evil than good–the DOJ and ICE are the obvious examples. Why not limit the shutdown to them? That kind of shutdown would actually create some leverage against the administration on critical issues such as impoundment.

I don’t know if such a limited shutdown is practically possible, but if it is, it should be tried.

An article in the NYT last week that was equal parts accurate, poignant, and depressing told us how Disney uses information it gets from smartphones to craft an extremely enjoyable experience only for those with huge amounts of money to spend, because that is where the profits are. It is a portrait of a nation with a disappearing middle class. It is a description of the dollar store economy at work.

As I’ve noted countless times before, Biden’s attempt to shatter the dollar store were defeated by inflation and a lack of votes in the Senate. Trump is attempting to break out of dollar store bondage with a very different program, featuring mass deportations and tariffs. It is unlikely that the tariff levels that he has selected and/or negotiated are sufficient to bring about a massive improvement in the lives of poorly educated workers, so their hopes will have to ride on labor shortages created by the deportations. Is that likely to work, or will we instead see vegetables rotting in the fields and small business closures due to a lack of suitable employees? My money is on the latter.

I start this with the caveat that my knowledge of Buddhism and Hinduism is very limited. With that said, here goes:

I read somewhere that a court in India ruled that Hinduism was really a cultural phenomenon and a way of life, not a religion. On its face, it is polytheistic, which obviously conflicts with my definition. It is also tied way too closely with Indian history and culture to be universal. Relative to my definition, it is a flop.

Buddhism is a tougher call. There are so many variants of Buddhism, some of which are metaphysically similar to Christianity, that it is difficult to analyze. The core of Buddhism, however, is the association of human life with misery and the attempt to mitigate it by overcoming desire. This method is both unchanging and universal, which meets my definition. If all of humanity succeeded in meeting the challenge of overcoming desire, however, it would cease to exist. In addition, much of the best of our culture can be found at the intersection of Desire Street and Frustration Avenue. Would we really want to give that up?

Trump and Modi are both swaggering right-wing populists with limited tolerance for opposition. They should have no trouble getting along, right?

The problem is that Modi wants to be the unquestioned boss of India, but Trump sees himself as the boss of the entire world. The two aspirations are incompatible. Friction was the inevitable result.

Two observations are pertinent here. First, as I’ve noted many times before, the notion of an enduring international coalition of nationalists is logically ridiculous, because no nationalist leader is going to agree to subordinate his country’s interests to someone else. Second, history provides evidence for the point; the high-water mark for extreme nationalism was the 1930s, and you know how that turned out.

Like everything else, Trump wants to dictate what is admirable and what isn’t in American culture. To that end, he has taken over the Kennedy Center and changed its programming. He is also conducting a review of the Smithsonian’s exhibits and commenting frequently and stridently about sports.

But his power in this field is limited. If you don’t take federal money, he has no control over you. He can’t make you watch professional wrestling at the White House no matter how hard he tries, and he can’t force MLB to put Roger Clemens in the Hall of Fame.

Trump is a completely orthodox Republican on the issue of organized labor; he believes it shouldn’t exist. In spite of that, he enjoys the support of a surprisingly large percentage of American workers. How is that possible?

Because he has succeeded in persuading them that their primary adversaries are not their employers; instead, foreigners, illegal immigrants, and a hapless federal government are to blame for their stagnant wages.

How long will this last? Until the tariff and deportation scheme is proven in the public’s eyes to be a failure.

Here’s how the factions would react to MAHA:

CDs: This is ridiculous and dangerous. The issues Kennedy is raising were resolved decades ago. He has to go.

PBPs: Ditto, and his comments about pesticides and processed foods are damaging business, as well.

CLs: Anyone who reduces the size and power of the nanny state is welcome, even if some of his ideas are a bit strange.

Reactionaries: Doctors proved during the pandemic that they don’t know squat, but they want to rule the world. It’s time to take power and freedom back from elites like them. If a few people die unnecessarily in the fight for freedom, that’s a price well worth paying.

Kennedy’s ability to stay in Trump’s good graces depends on his willingness to ease up on businesses and thus keep the PBPs happy. Thus far, he has done that; the focus of his tenure has been on firing people and supporting anti-vaxxers, which keeps the far right happy.

Bill Cassidy is a doctor. He has strong feelings about vaccines and public health. So when he was called upon to cast the deciding vote for RFK, he only capitulated on the basis of promises that RFK would keep him in the loop about vaccines and not do anything crazy.

How has that turned out? Naturally, RFK is doing everything he can to stack the deck against vaccines, including those that have been effective for decades. And what is Cassidy doing about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. He’s too afraid of the base to take action.

The Conservatives were a lock to win the Canadian election before Trump started calling Canada our 51st state. The Liberals owe their victory to him.

Now Trump is using tariffs in an attempt to interfere with the Brazilian legal system and the future election. To no one’s surprise, Lula’s ratings have gone way up, and the Brazilian government has refused Trump’s demands to back off Bolsonaro, whose chances of winning the presidency are now slim and none.

When will Trump figure out that most of the world doesn’t want him to be its boss? Probably never.