Category: Uncategorized

Germany’s defeat in World War I was due to the failures of its military, not the treachery of the politicians back in Berlin. The “stab in the back” was thus a lie, and the military knew it. You can forgive the regular citizens who believed it, however; the Allies never reached German soil, and wartime censorship prevented them from knowing the truth. As far as they could tell, Germany was winning the war. They had no reason to believe otherwise until the armistice was signed.

The “rigged election” lie, like the “stab in the back,” was designed to save face. The difference is that the truth was readily available to the public; it played out in real time. Trump’s supporters refused to believe it simply because they think, based on history and God’s will, they are entitled to rule this country. When the evidence conflicts with the narrative, they go with the narrative every time.

Will the “rigged election” ultimately be as pernicious as the “stab in the back?” Quite possibly. A majority of Republicans have chosen to believe it. It will be a factor in 2022 and 2024. After that, who knows?

Saturday’s post was written with America in mind, but it occurred to me thereafter that it also applied to Iran. The regime believes it has a divine right to rule, but has little public support, so it cut off any possibility of peaceful change through the system by disqualifying any plausible moderate candidates in the recent election. The only conceivable means for the millions of dissatisfied Iranians of modifying the (obviously failed) system is through widespread violence. B x H = D.

What this shows is that there is a degree of functional commonality between the Christian nationalist right in America and the ayatollahs. If you’re a GOP supporter, and the analogy makes you uncomfortable, too bad for you.

The great would-be emperor Xi

Tried to bring Xinjiang to its knees.

Now he’s crushing Hong Kong.

You could say that it’s wrong

But the government doesn’t agree.

The best thing about Trump, from my perspective, is that the overwhelming shortcomings of his personality discredited his ideology and divisive rhetoric, at least in the short run. We’re not likely to be so lucky the next time.

Ron DeSantis believes in using his bully pulpit to divide his constituents and own the libs almost as much as Trump does, but in all other respects, he is a more respectable face for reactionary thought than the man on golf cart. He’s qualified for the job; he’s capable of embracing popular causes on the left if it helps him politically; he isn’t corrupt; and he is unlikely to lead an insurrection if he loses.

Running against Trump in 2024 would be simple–make him and his administration the issue, sit back, and watch him self-destruct again. Beating DeSantis would be far more difficult. Trump is obviously a greater danger to liberal democracy; DeSantis is a threat to the Democratic Party. Which is worse? You decide.

Michelle Goldberg has a column in today’s NYT on the dangers presented by the declining Christian right. I have posted on this subject countless times, and the column doesn’t add anything to what I have said in the past, but she’s correct.

It occurred to me this morning that the problem can be expressed in the following formula: B x H=D. B is the belief in the righteousness of your cause and a divine right to rule; H is hopelessness resulting from an awareness of decline; and D is, of course, disaster.

So how can the disaster be averted? The white Christian nationalists can only be crushed or appeased. Crushing them is impossible at this time; they are too numerous and well-connected, and they have guns. The only other, if unheroic, alternative is appeasement: bathe them in prosperity; constantly assure them of their value to the country; and don’t complain too much about the Christian carve-outs that we know are coming from the Supreme Court. After all, in the long run, they are all dead.

The Chinese government is determined to repress religious and ethnic minorities. In India, the battle is between Hindus and Muslims. Sunnis and Shiites are at war all over the Middle East. The EU as a whole has huge problems with Muslim immigrants. Ethnic and religious minorities have always been viewed with suspicion in Russia. The Polish and Hungarian regimes win elections by targeting LGBTQ people. The English are split between cosmopolitans and Brexit supporters. In Ireland, Protestants and Catholics have been fighting each other for centuries.

In short, culture wars are not an element of American exceptionalism. They are, in fact, the norm around the world.

As we have seen, DeSantis’ record on the pandemic has hardly been beyond reproach. What are his other vulnerabilities?

From the perspective of a GOP primary challenger, here they are:

1. FOSSIL FUELS: DeSantis has been at least somewhat responsive to the concerns of his Florida constituents on environmental issues, including offshore drilling. That isn’t going to play well with people to whom fealty to fossil fuels is practically a religion, of whom there are a large number in the GOP. Expect this to come up early and often.
2. BUDGET CUTTING: Instead of using the pandemic as a welcome excuse to cut state spending, as Rick Scott would have done, DeSantis has been happy to take federal money to avoid such cuts. Reactionaries don’t really care about spending, as long as they get what they see as their fair share, but CLs do.
3. RELATIONS WITH BUSINESS: DeSantis is a pure reactionary. He cares about cultural issues and the base more than tax cuts and deregulation. He has interfered with business interests to appease the base on vaccinations and the wearing of masks. The WSJ will not be impressed, and will probably promote other, more business-friendly GOP candidates in the primaries.

Does any of this mean DeSantis can’t win? Not at all! The reactionaries are the largest faction in the GOP, and he hasn’t burned his bridges with business, as Josh Hawley, another prominent pure reactionary, probably has. He should start as the favorite if Trump doesn’t run.

I’ve got those dirty, lowdown, insurrection blues.

You have to be aware of it; it’s all over the news.

A riot hit the Capitol, and Trump sure lit the fuse.

It damaged our democracy; for that, there’s no excuse.

______

Our party hasn’t figured out just how to deal with Trump.

If you criticize the guy, he turns into a grump.

Some people in the party say he really should be dumped.

But if we cut him loose, our winning chances surely slump.

__________

I’ve got the blues.

The Trump-in-exile blues.

We have to find the answer

Or we’re really going to lose.

We have to stick together;

The right has to unite.

Things are looking pretty grim

But I won’t give up the fight.

Right-wing commentators have lionized DeSantis for his allegedly outstanding pandemic record. Well, in the immortal words of Rasheed Wallace, “Ball don’t lie.” What does the ball tell us about Florida over the last year or so?

I have examined three key statistics: deaths per 1,000 population; the unemployment rate; and the vaccination rate. Florida is squarely in the middle of the range for each of these items. On its face, the state’s performance has been mediocre, from both an economic and a public health perspective.

The reality, however, is that Florida, as a tourist destination with a more relaxed regime than most, probably exported thousands of cases to other states. In addition, Florida’s recent performance on hospitalizations and deaths has been very poor relative to other areas of the country. In all likelihood, this is due to DeSantis’ greater interest in protecting the rights of the unvaccinated (most of them, members of his base) than in maximizing vaccinations.

The verdict, therefore, is that the DeSantis record is nothing to boast about. It is a potential liability in 2024. As to other possible points of vulnerability, see my next DeSantistan post.

Peter Thiel is a CL. He believes that everything good produced by society is created by visionary entrepreneurs like himself, who should consequently be freed from taxes and regulations to the maximum extent possible. The rest of us are just along for the ride. J.D. Vance is running for the Senate in Ohio as a reactionary populist; he argues that the common people of this country have been betrayed by our cultural, governmental, and business elites, and promises to shake up the system for the benefit of struggling workers in dying industries.

Thiel has contributed $10 million to the Vance campaign. This is an apparent mismatch. Either Thiel is making a terrible investment, or Vance is misrepresenting his actual views. My guess is that it is (b); you can expect to see Vance advocating for tax cuts for big business if he gets elected.

DeSantis and the Florida Legislature have thrown the reactionary base so much red meat over the last few months, it is suffering from indigestion. This includes: new, unnecessary vote suppression legislation; new rules prohibiting the teaching of CRT in Florida schools; legislation prohibiting transgender girls from participation in sports; a new law targeting censorship by big tech companies (already found unconstitutional by a federal judge); and executive action prohibiting businesses (including cruise lines) from refusing service to unvaccinated people. In fact, DeSantis appears to be more interested at this point in protecting the interests of the unvaccinated than in getting them vaccinated, undoubtedly because many of them are members of the base.

It would appear that DeSantis has his right wing completely covered. Will he learn from Trump’s example and move to the center? I’m guessing not. The right continues to believe that it can win national elections solely with the votes of a fully mobilized base. That will only happen if the GOP manages to change the voting rules far beyond its meager efforts to date.

According to the NYT, the Murdochs are working on a new Fox Weather Channel. Just what the world needs–angry, populist, right-wing weather! Culture wars between liberal low pressure systems and real American high pressure systems! Heat waves, fires, and monster hurricanes caused by hot air from the left, not fossil fuels! It will be great!

In light of this, I think NBC should replace Al Roker with Bob Dylan. Imagine it:

And it’s a hard

And it’s a hard

And it’s a hard

And it’s a hard

It’s a hard rain a-gonna fall!

Or:

The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind.

The answer is blowin’ in the wind.

After all, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

By all accounts, my prediction was correct; the Afghan central government is imploding, and the country is heading for a civil war involving the Taliban and several warlords. The two most important remaining questions about the situation are as follows:

1. Will the Pakistanis use their leverage? Once the “good” Taliban take power, they are likely to turn on their Pakistani allies, for whom they will have little further use. As of today, the Pakistanis still have some leverage. Will they use it to try and create a reasonable political settlement, or just celebrate a “victory” that will turn out to be worse than defeat?
2. Who gets Ghani? The central government will continue to exist on paper, and will control access to significant military and diplomatic assets. American aid will probably flow to the warlord with the best claim to be the heir to the elected regime. If I’m Ghani, I’m talking to the warlords and making the best deal available to me. If I’m a warlord, I want the legitimacy, money, and weapons he can bring to my side, so I’m willing to pay a pretty high price.

DeSantis probably doesn’t have the nerve to run against Trump. The best case scenario for him is that Trump bows out before 2023, most likely due to health or legal problems. Assuming, for purposes of argument, that no such deus ex machina comes to his rescue, what is the best way for DeSantis to nudge Trump away from the table?

The single best thing he can do is govern Florida competently, while insisting repeatedly that Trump is a worthy frontrunner and that he would never run against him. Being as obsequious as possible definitely helps. In the meantime, he can be raising money and creating valuable connections under the guise of running for re-election in 2022.

My suspicion is that Trump will not run again if very early polls show that he could lose in the primary. The key for DeSantis, then, is to leverage the funds and connections he generates during his re-election campaign into strong showings in these polls without looking like he is actually running for anything outside of Florida. That will be tricky, and it would have to be done quietly, but it is possible.

Ron DeSantis is running for president; he just doesn’t want Trump to find out about it and squash him like a bug. DeSantis made his political fortune riding on Trump’s coattails, and is usually viewed as being a clone of the man on golf cart. How do they actually stack up?

DeSantis has his own personality quirks; most notably, by all accounts, he doesn’t like people very much, so he delegates his public relations to his wife. (That doesn’t seem that strange to me) Otherwise, he is a much more attractive figure than Trump. He has an impressive academic background; unlike Trump, he understands the concept of public service; he is clearly qualified to be president; and he isn’t a complete narcissist, which means that, unlike Trump, the fear of being a loser won’t make him a danger to the republic.

Politically, DeSantis is more of a pure reactionary than Trump, who genuinely believes in the standard GOP line about tax cuts and deregulation. DeSantis is not wealthy, and has no business background; he doesn’t see Florida as his own closely-held LLC. He is willing to embrace causes that are popular on the left, such as environmental protection, if it assists him politically. He is also good at owning the libs, albeit not to the degree that Trump is.

Is it possible for DeSantis to nudge Trump out of the way without drawing Former Guy’s ire? For that, see my next post.