Category: Uncategorized

We’re approaching the end of the year.

What comes next, I would say, isn’t clear.

The pandemic is gone

But the war soldiers on

And a debt crisis beckons, I fear.

Ross Douthat predicts there will never be a reckoning for either Trump or his enablers. The former will just fade away, and the latter will fall into line behind DeSantis or some other nominee. Is he right?

As with most things, it depends–in this case, on Trump and his followers. If Trump benefits from a large field and wins the nomination, all bets are off. If he loses the primaries but claims that the establishment rigged the process against him, his most fanatical supporters are likely to follow him out of the GOP, with disastrous results in the general election. Electoral defeat as a result of the actions of the “burn it down” crowd would represent a reckoning of a different sort.

As I’ve noted before, Rich Lowry is the quintessential anti-anti-Trumper (AAT). He was as aware of Trump’s innumerable personality flaws as anyone, which admittedly doesn’t say much about his judgment, but he trained his fire exclusively on the left as long as the man on golf cart was in office. Whether this was out of a desperate desire to keep the right united against the left or a simple craven wish to remain on good terms with the mainstream of the GOP, I don’t know. What I do know is that Lowry and his like were Trump enablers. History will show that they could have tried to keep the ship of state on track, and they didn’t. They watched a disaster unfold and just let it happen for purely self-interested reasons.

Today, of course, Lowry has a plausible right-wing alternative, so he’s attacking Trump with as much fervor as I do. In the immortal words of Shania Twain, that don’t impress me much.

Ross Douthat examines the data and concludes that Americans aren’t really any less “religious;” they just aren’t willing to submit to the discipline of traditional mainstream churches. In his eyes, that makes us “heretics.” Is he right?

I have two observations about that. First of all, “heresy” is part of the American DNA. Some of our ancestors came here to worship outside of the control of state churches; others started completely new forms of Christianity, of whom the Mormons are the most prominent. America was, and is, a kind of spiritual tabular rasa. It’s a place to break from the chains of the past and make your own shining city on the hill.

Second, as a nation of free individuals and constant change, we don’t accept traditional European forms of discipline. We make our decisions about ethics and metaphysics based on logic and our own experience, not the opinions of emperors and church fathers. In the end, St. Augustine didn’t have any more idea of what happens to us after death than you and I do. He just thought he was required to rely on the authority of Christian scripture for all of the answers. Most of us don’t agree.

As far as I’m concerned, this is cause for celebration, not doom and gloom. If that makes me a “heretic,” so be it. Merry Christmas!

We’re not homeless–far from it. We have a nice house in the North Carolina mountains. It’s beautiful, here, too; the sky was a gorgeous pale blue and pink on the mountain this morning, and the snow meets the Currier & Ives test. We could be living in a shed, like some people who were interviewed in the Fort Myers paper. Life could be a lot worse.

But we miss the familiar rhythms of a Florida Christmas. We miss our friends. And, above all, we miss the warm weather. We had a wind chill factor of minus 37 degrees here yesterday morning. I haven’t seen anything like that in about 50 years.

Under the circumstances, you can understand it if songs like “I’ll Be Home for Christmas” have a different meaning for us this year. Sometimes it’s just better to sing and not pay any attention to the lyrics.

DeSantis can get anything he wants from the Florida Legislature, but he isn’t saying anything specific about new abortion restrictions. Why?

Because he wants to maintain some degree of plausible deniability with both the base and moderate suburban women, of course. Whatever the Legislature does, he will tell one group he is responsible, and the other that he isn’t. Brilliant, right?

It won’t work. The pro-life activists in particular aren’t interested in anything that looks like a compromise. He’s going to be blamed by someone for the new legislation regardless of how it turns out.

Here is where the factions stand on the impending debt ceiling crisis:

1. CDs: You would crash the economy and destroy the nation’s credit over the payment of existing debts that were already authorized by Congress? That’s insane!
2. PBPs: Ditto. You’re putting my investments at risk. Don’t do it!
3. CLs: Reducing the size of government is the overriding objective here. Sure, there will be some pain, but in the end, we’ll all be better off.
4. Reactionaries: Can you think of a better way to BURN IT DOWN?

Navigating the gap between these trains of thought will be McCarthy’s most important task, assuming he is the next Speaker.

DeSantis has made fighting wokeness his brand. What, exactly, is his understanding of the term?

I think he would define it as “an extreme left-wing identity ideology, propagated by elites and embedded in the MSM and the federal government, which holds that America is a bigoted, misogynist, homophobic, and racist country, and puts the responsibility for that on straight white Christian men.”

So far, so effective–it is doubtful that more than a tiny fraction of the American public holds these views, so criticizing them is a good way to win votes. The real questions with DeSantis, however, are as follows:

1. Does his view of wokeness extend to any belief commonly held by elites? For example, does it include climate change and vaccines? If so, DeSantis is walking on thin ice with the electorate here.
2. If elected president, how far is DeSantis prepared to go to impose his views on wokeness on blue states and cities?
3. Along the same lines, how far will he go to attack wokeness outside of government? Will he attempt to censor the internet and the MSM?

The last two questions are of extreme importance. He should be asked them during the GOP debates over the next two years. His answers will tell us whether he is just a traditional Republican or the Hungarian Candidate.

Elections over the last decade show that America is a conservative country in the literal–not the Republican–sense of the word. We might have fond memories of the 1950s, but we still look forward, not back. We are not reactionaries.

Americans are suspicious of new large-scale government spending programs. Most issues should be left to the private sector, or to state and local governments; where federal action is clearly necessary, it should be small and incremental. Once a new program is in place, however, it should remain. Attempts to repeal programs that benefit large numbers of Americans usually don’t end well.

On social issues, Americans believe in traditional values, but do not support discrimination against historically disadvantaged groups, and are unwilling to give up rights that they have enjoyed for many years.

Abroad, Americans support democratic states, and oppose authoritarian ones. How far they are willing to go to express those opinions is an open question.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Based on some mercantilist ideas which hadn’t been seen since the 18th century, Trump created a system of tariffs that upended the international trading system. Biden has kept large portions of that system in place. Why?

Three reasons:

1. CHINESE REPRESSION AND AGGRESSIVE DIPLOMACY: Biden is not fixated on the trade deficit, but he is justifiably concerned about the national security implications of Chinese tech growth and protectionism.
2. POLITICS: Due to the vagaries of the Electoral College, the 2024 election will probably be decided by a relative handful of votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which are industrial states with strong protectionist leanings.
3. NOSTALGIA: Like Trump, Biden is old enough to remember and celebrate the 1950s–a time of strong unions, rising wages, low levels of inequality, and American manufacturing predominance. Unlike Trump, he actually cares about workers. Protectionism appears to be a way to bring back those days of industrial glory.

I read a column a few months back which made the case that we need a generation of leaders that can’t remember the 1950s. To be honest with you, I think the writer was correct. We need to see the world as it is today, not as it was 70 years ago.

(It’s 5:00 on December 24. Bob Cratchit is working in his cubicle at Scrooge, LLC when the boss, in “managing by walking around” mode, comes by.

C: Mr. Scrooge, sir.

S: What is it . . . (he looks at the nameplate on the cubicle) . . . Cratchit?

C: Can I have tomorrow off, sir?

S: Why in the world would I do that?

C: Why . . . because it’s Christmas, sir.

S: Not in China, it isn’t. How am I supposed to compete with those people and their low labor costs if I give you unnecessary days off?

C: Well, actually, the Chinese get a whole week off for Chinese New Year. We never should have come back to the office, anyway. The worst of the pandemic might be over, but the virus is still out there, and I might get sick and give it to my child. He has special needs, you know.

S: (Sees a picture of Tiny Tim in the cubicle) Is that him?

C: Yes, sir.

(Scrooge walks around the office with an exaggerated limp)

C: There’s nothing funny about it, sir! He’s in really bad shape! If he gets the virus, it could kill him!

S: I don’t have time for that political correctness crap.

C: You sound just like Donald Trump, sir.

S: No, I don’t. I have nothing to do with him. He’s totally out of control. His time has come and gone. He has nothing to offer people like me.

C: Well, DeSantis then.

S: DeSantis is strong on wokeness, but not on tax cuts. They’re more important. I don’t completely trust him. I’ll support him if he’s the nominee, but he’s not my first choice.

C: Who would that be?

S: Rick Scott. Unlike Trump, who believes that he alone made America great, Scott understands that people like me made America great. Without entrepreneurs, this country is nothing. Just ask Elon Musk.

C: What about people like me?

S: You just draft off my awesomeness. You could be replaced in a heartbeat–at least, you could if we had a normal labor market. Biden and the pandemic have given you workers way too much power. Enjoy it while it last, because it won’t.

C: What about Christmas?

S: If I don’t give you the day off, Biden will probably send his jackbooted thugs down here to harass me. He might even try to persuade you drones to unionize.

C: So I get the day off?

S: Sort of. There will be a Zoom meeting at noon. I’ll text you the password.

C: Thank you, sir!

S: Don’t even think about ghosting me!

(Cratchit leaves)

By and large, the red state reaction to the pandemic was that the danger was highly overblown. Freedom was more important than life and public health. Mask mandates trampled on our fundamental rights. Vaccines? Take them or leave them. Just get on with life and hope for the best.

Today, several red states are trying to keep asylum seekers out of the country on the basis that–wait for it–a federal regulation based on public health and the pandemic must remain in place. I guess the virus is only a problem if it is carried by people from Central America.

SCENARIO ONE: House Republicans agree to lift the debt ceiling in exchange for a cosmetic cut in spending–think getting rid of the additional IRS agents here. RESULT: The markets relax, and life goes on as usual, but the threat of a future confrontation remains.

SCENARIO TWO: Biden and the Republicans agree to defund major parts of the IRA in exchange for debt ceiling relief. RESULT: The markets are happy, but the Democrats are demoralized. Bernie Sanders announces he will challenge Biden in 2024.

SCENARIO THREE: No deal is reached. The markets go crazy, and a worldwide financial crisis ensues. Both parties blame the other. The “burn it down” crowd rejoices.

SCENARIO FOUR: No deal is reached, but Biden invokes the Fourteenth Amendment and pays all federal government obligations, anyway. The markets initially seize up but calm down shortly thereafter. GOP members file suit to stop Social Security payments and payments to contractors, which doesn’t exactly endear them to the public. The suit is dismissed for lack of standing. The crisis is over, never to be repeated.

Which of these do you think is the most plausible?

The Fed is increasing interest rates in an effort to suppress inflation. You advocate cutting taxes in order to mitigate the impacts of higher interest rates on the economy. What, exactly, do you think this will do to inflation?

If you’re an inflation hawk, you really should be advocating for higher, not lower, taxes; they would suck up some of the excess savings that are fueling the spending that is causing inflation. It is worth noting that no one–particularly, no member of the GOP–has suggested that.

It occurred to me early this morning that the wilder elements of the GOP view today’s political climate in the same way the more extreme Whigs viewed life under the Stuarts in the latter half of the 17th century. An out of touch government holding values that are anathema to the mainstream is using the political and legal systems to impose its will on the public. Essential freedoms are under attack. Conspiracies are everywhere, so conspiracy theories abound.

The problem with the analogy is that none of this is actually happening. Law enforcement has not been weaponized against the right. Biden is not trying to impose a woke agenda on anyone. First Amendment rights are still intact, and there are no Christian re-education camps. The threat to “freedom” from the woke left, to the extent that it actually exists, comes from a handful of activists who will soon find themselves expelled from Twitter. That’s not exactly the equivalent of Judge Jeffreys or the secret Treaty of Dover.

The analogy between the “rigged election” and the Popish Plot, on the other hand, is perfectly appropriate.