Category: Uncategorized

Biden is trying to enforce a seriously flawed immigration statute with very limited resources in a way that is orderly, predictable, and humane. For his pains, he is being attacked in court by both the left and right. Both extremes are having some success in their respective federal forum of choice. Today’s decision by a California judge favoring the left on the latest immigration rule is a case in point.

What is the guy supposed to do? Without a lot more resources and a clear, reasonable legal standard, there is no solution to this problem. At some point, the posturing has to end, and the two sides need to deal with the practical implications of their preferred outcomes.

Update: I’ve read today’s opinion. It makes absolutely no reference whatsoever to the practical problems of dealing with countless thousands of asylum claims in this country. I’m willing to bet that the judge in Amarillo would see it differently.

Any number of prominent economists have been warning us for months that a nasty recession is just around the corner. Yesterday, The Economist and an NYT columnist made the case that the recession, although long delayed, is still coming. Are they right, or are they waiting for Godot?

The business cycle still exists, so at some point, they will inevitably be right. In the near future, however, the recession will only arrive if the wealthy consumers who are continuing to spend regardless of the Fed’s actions lose confidence and pull back. What could make that happen? I can only think of two things: an unanticipated external shock that crushes the markets and asset prices; or a decision by the Fed to dramatically increase rates and keep them artificially high for an unexpectedly long period of time. The former is possible; the latter is highly unlikely.

There is an important point to be made here: similar to presidential approval ratings, consumer confidence surveys aren’t as relevant as they used to be, because the dollar store economy runs on the spending of the affluent, not what is left of the middle class. Inflation and consumer spending are all tied to increasing levels of inequality in a way that was not true 20 years ago.

For whatever reason, Trump isn’t trying very hard to win in Iowa. He insulted the governor; he offended the anti-abortion activists; and he skipped campaign events. He may well not participate in most of the debates, as well. If he manages to prevail in Iowa in spite of all of this, the rest of the process will be a coronation. Nobody will have the resources and the momentum to stop him.

But assume for the moment that DeSantis takes advantage of the opportunity given to him, overwhelms Pence with grim determination and superior resources, and rides the social conservative vote to a narrow win in Iowa. He’s now roughly in the position that Cruz was in 2016. What happens next?

The DeSantis message of increasing government power to fight wokeness doesn’t resonate in libertarian New Hampshire. Christie, Scott, and Haley help to split the anti-Trump vote. Trump wins here by a fairly large margin even though he doesn’t have a majority.

Trump also wins in Nevada. Pence has already dropped out at this point, and Ramaswamy is a non-factor, since he doesn’t disagree with Trump on anything important. DeSantis doesn’t gain much traction in South Carolina, and Scott and Haley divide the hometown moderate vote. Trump wins, and Scott and Haley drop out, correctly seeing no realistic path to the nomination.

DeSantis is now effectively in a two-man race, which is what he wanted from the beginning. But he’s well behind, and he’s running out of resources. He absolutely has to win Florida to have a reasonable chance. Does he get it?

Probably not.

Maybe I can get Jason Aldean to cover this.

THE BATTLE HYMN OF RED AMERICA

Every morning I drive my truck

A mile or so to the 7-11

And buy up all the beer in stock.

I tell myself, this must be heaven.

_______________

Every day I go to work.

I kick the red clay off my shoes

And dream how Trump will burn it down.

It’s not like I have much to lose.

__________________________

Every night before I sleep

I hit my knees and ask for grace.

I pray to God to keep me free

And keep the liberals in their place.

____________

This is God’s country.

God’s country.

We’ll kick your ass if you don’t believe it.

This is God’s country.

God’s country.

If you don’t love it, feel free to leave it.

Progressives want Biden to spend more time talking about reforming the Supreme Court, and with good reason; the major questions doctrine is going to make it impossible for them to solve social problems with regulations. So far, Biden has refused. Why?

For a variety of reasons:

1. There is no realistic prospect of doing anything about the Court in the next few years;
2. Biden knows what happened to FDR’s ratings after his proposal to pack the Court;
3. He also knows that the Court has inadvertently handed him some important political gifts by overturning abortion rights and eliminating affirmative action; and
4. Most importantly, Biden undoubtedly plans to run as an institutional conservative against a reactionary extremist who suggested terminating the Constitution less than a year ago. He would be muddling the message of safety and stability by proposing any kind of dramatic Supreme Court reform in his platform.

I expect Supreme Court reform to be high on the priority list for the Democratic candidates in 2028. At that point, one way or another, Trump will be out of the picture. For now, however, Biden’s stance makes perfect sense.

The parties, the leaders, and the issues will seem depressingly familiar to Americans. In one corner, we have the blue team: the secular and progressive side that makes the money, pays the taxes, and fights the wars. In the other corner, we have the red team: the religious side that feels disrespected by the elite and wants to use politics to impose its values and get even. The religious side is led by a man who needs to stay in office and eliminate the few checks and balances in the system in order to avoid ongoing legal problems. Is this ringing any bells for you?

What is happening in Israel today could be the harbinger of similar events in this country if Trump wins in 2024. Let’s hope we don’t find out.

In light of the actions taken by DeSantis, the Florida Legislature, and their predecessors, what does the future hold for the Sunshine State? Here’s a reasonable guess:

1. As climate change gets worse, and property insurance becomes unaffordable for all except the very wealthy, working people will be forced to leave the state. Coastal areas will be dominated by hideously expensive elevated concrete caverns. The character of cozy coastal downtowns will be changed forever. Even residents of less affluent interior areas will be forced to leave.
2. The DeSantis war on wokeness is, in reality, largely a war on young people. They will leave, too.
3. Finally, the immigrants who perform most of the difficult physical labor will feel unwelcome, and will depart, as a result of the 2023 immigration legislation.

What you are left with is a state dominated culturally and politically by a relative handful of old, wealthy people, who will complain incessantly that nobody is around to cut their grass and fix their homes. Even they will flee Florida during the summer, as the heat and the hurricanes will make life unbearable after the end of March. But hey, look on the bright side! At least they will be free.

I don’t ordinarily deconstruct my own work, but I’m going to make an exception in this case. Here goes:

1. The post was inspired by an Ezra Klein interview with a novelist named Barbara Kingsolver, who basically tells us that white rural residents are the virtuous victims of contempt, indifference, and even malevolence from city dwellers. In her view, they are justified in supporting Trump, even if he operates against their interests in actual practice, because he shows them the respect they deserve, and hates the same people they do.
2. We can easily admit that there are plenty of urbanites who view rural America as “flyover country,” but the contempt runs both ways, and is ageless. Remember Al Smith? Remember the KKK? Remember the Know-Nothings? Remember Jefferson’s views of immigrants and cities? White Protestant America’s view of itself as the only true, incorruptible America in an existential battle with evil interlopers has existed for centuries. It doesn’t taste any better now than it did then, particularly since the left really wants to help these people, who seem to prefer anger and nostalgia to federal spending programs.
3. The snooty liberal establishment didn’t push opioids on rural residents; voracious capitalists did. In a similar vein, environmentalists didn’t close down the mines; the mine owners did, as a result of economic forces that were beyond the control of either group. The intellectual left consistently gets the blame for this, however.
4. Trump and his supporters clearly view struggling white rural residents through the lens of the Civil Rights Movement. I don’t buy it, for several reasons. First, the plight of white rural residents has never remotely approached the condition of slavery. Second, those residents always had the ability to leave and sand down their accents if necessary; black people cannot do that. Third, and most importantly, the vast majority of black people believe in liberal democracy, in spite of everything they have suffered throughout the centuries. White rural supporters of Trump, on the other hand, believe they are entitled to rule whether they represent a majority of voters or not, and they are perfectly willing to burn it down if they are unsuccessful in fair elections.
5. It is true that the “burn it down” crowd has an analogy in the handful of black protesters who have torched businesses over the years in an effort to bring attention to lingering injustice. The difference is that the protesters only burned down their own communities; white Christian reactionaries want to burn down the entire country.

SUMMERTIME

Summertime

But the livin’ ain’t easy.

Temps are jumpin’;

The heat index is high.

But your daddy’s rich

And he’s got air conditioning.

So hush, little baby.

Don’t you cry.

_______________

Not in the North Carolina mountains, fortunately.

---

They’re mad as hell, and who can blame them? The white elites have always viewed them as inferior, and discriminated against them. Their culture is despised. Their labor was exploited mercilessly by the rich, who left them with nothing. The government does nothing for them. What should they do?

They’re ready to burn it down. That’s why it’s time to talk about reparations for hillbillies.

The local reactionaries wanted a crackdown on immigration, and the politicians were more than willing to give it to them. The immigrants predictably left in droves. Guess what happened after that? There were serious labor shortages in businesses that were critical to the voters. You couldn’t find anyone to mow your lawn or fix your house or pick your crops or take care of your elderly parents anymore. The reactionaries grumbled that this wasn’t what they thought they were getting, but they were just being stupid, and it was way too late to do anything about it.

This is the UK after Brexit. Is it Florida after the new immigration legislation? Probably.

The McConnell Project is an attempt by the right to keep the left from exercising power when in office by the skillful use of the various checks and balances in the federal government. On its own terms, it has been a success; with partisan legislation and major administrative initiatives off-limits, the only real power remaining in the hands of the left revolves around the budget. Times are changing, however; neither Trump nor DeSantis has any time for checks and balances. Both of the most likely GOP nominees want to politicize the DOJ; both want to replace thousands of career civil servants with right-wing extremists; Trump wants to bring several powerful independent government agencies under his control; and both undoubtedly will demand an end to the filibuster. Since Trump and DeSantis collectively poll at about 70 percent, one has to assume that this agenda has the support of the GOP electorate.

These proposed changes will empower the executive branch at the expense of civil servants, the American people, and Congress. What will Mitch do in response? Will he fight back, knowing that a government without guardrails can be used autocratically by the left as well as the right? Or will he just sit back and let it happen in the name of party unity?

Let’s hope we never find out.

Xi has plenty of issues with the current US government, but he welcomed Henry Kissinger to China a few days ago. What kind of message is he trying to send?

Kissinger is his kind of American, for three reasons. First, as a foreign policy realist, Kissinger notoriously downplays human rights issues in autocracies as a motivating factor in American foreign policy. He couldn’t care less about Hong Kong or the Uighurs. Second, Kissinger is level-headed and indifferent to the passions in American politics; he is a man with whom one can do business regardless of the state of public opinion. Finally, Xi probably believes that Kissinger would recommend acquiescence to a Chinese sphere of influence in Asia, based on his admiration of Metternich and the system he created after the Napoleonic Wars. In the end, that’s really the question: will American accept Chinese domination of most of Asia without a fight, or not?

“Look, I know you really liked a lot of the things that Trump did in office. You liked the economy prior to the pandemic, and you enjoyed it when he owned the libs. You thought the chaos was worth it. I totally get that. In fact, I agree with a lot of it.

But we have to face facts. Trump needlessly divided the country just for his own ego and entertainment. He treated the government as if it were just another form of his business. He sucked up to Putin and other dictators in a way that was embarrassing and even dangerous. Finally, he totally botched the pandemic by refusing to take it seriously. Hundreds of thousands of people died unnecessarily as a result.

The 2020 election was fair, and he lost it by seven million votes. He even lost states that had been historically red. What did he do then? He filed frivolous lawsuits, and lost them, even before a Supreme Court with three of his nominees and six conservatives. He came up with ridiculous schemes to overturn state certifications. Finally, he whipped up a mob on January 6 and then watched them attack the Capitol without trying to stop them. It was arguably the most disgraceful episode in American political history.

Donald Trump isn’t fit to be president. January 6 put an end to that. If you nominate him, we will lose again, and it will be your fault, because you ignored the facts. That’s the truth, whether you like it or not.”

He didn’t have the support of most of the country. He knew that only too well. But he was determined to break the guardrails and give himself absolute power in order to glorify himself and take the nation back to where it was before. How could he do it?

First, he would fire as many civil servants as possible, and replace them with his loyalists. Second, he would rely on the judges he appointed to push his agenda forward. With their help, the Constitution could effectively be rewritten, and his political opponents could be neutered. His country would be great again.

Is it James II or Donald I? If Trump wins in 2024, we are likely to find out.