Author: hamilton1788

“The people who live in big cities are lawless animals!” said the man who built Trump Tower.

“They have no respect for traditional values!” said the former owner of several failed casinos.

“They don’t submit themselves to God” said the man who knows nothing of religion, and worships only power, money, fame, and himself.

“They don’t believe in the sanctity of traditional marriage!” said the thrice-married man whose sex life used to be written up in the New York Post.

“They don’t support our military, and they disrespect our flag!” said Cadet Bone Spurs, the man who referred to fallen soldiers and POWs as “losers.”

“They don’t respect the law!” said the man who paid hush money to Stormy Daniels.

“I alone can fix this problem” said the man who took no responsibility for defeating the virus.

And tens of millions of people believed him, which proves that Barnum’s famous quote about suckers was actually way too conservative.

Unions are a barrier to the efficient operation of businesses. Some of them have a history of being corrupt. Finally, as we have recently seen with police unions, organizations run primarily by and for middle-aged white men are not exactly known as being socially progressive. There are plenty of good reasons why people my age didn’t embrace unions.

But this came at a cost. Unions are an effective mechanism to transfer wealth from capital to labor. There is a clear correlation between the decline of unions and the national increase in inequality. And it isn’t inevitable that unions have to be associated with reactionary views on social issues; the frontier for union organization consists of employees who are disproportionately female and minority.

There are two conclusions to be drawn from this. First, the Democrats are right to propose legislation and regulations that make organization easier. In fact, they should be doing more to highlight this issue as a wedge between the GOP and its favorite pool of voters. Second, it is possible that, at some point in the future, unions may actually be a progressive force in American politics.

The single most important thing for Biden was and is to make the election a referendum on Trump. By running a low key campaign that is heavy on empathy and light on policy, he has done that. There is no reason to believe the approach will change between now and November.

Is there anything he could do to lose the election at this point? Here are some possibilities:

1. BOTCH THE DEBATES: There is nothing in his performance over the last year which suggests that will happen. In any event, Trump is hardly a formidable debater; all he can do is tell outrageous lies and bluster. In addition, by talking about Biden’s supposed lack of mental acuity, Trump has created a very low bar for him, which can only help.
2. DEPRESS THE LEFT: Trump will drive turnout no matter what he does. He made deals with Sanders and Warren and embraced some of their ideas. They are working hard for him. He is in much better shape with the left than Hillary was in 2016.
3. FRIGHTEN THE RIGHT: The emphasis on empathy and personality rather than policy is designed to address the concerns of moderate swing voters.

The bottom line is that, while we may see a few gaffes between now and November, it is highly unlikely that Biden will do anything to change the fundamentals of the race in Trump’s favor. If he loses, it is far more likely to be the result of events outside his control, including, but not limited to, massive vote suppression.

David Brooks wants to know if we, as individuals, have a plan to keep the country from falling apart if Trump refuses to concede in the face of a clear defeat. It is an all too plausible scenario, and a completely legitimate question.

But there are better questions, directed at GOP leaders. What will Tom do? What will Last Ditch Mitch do? What will John Roberts do? And, above all, what will Tucker do? Will he grit his teeth and tell his viewers to live with a Biden victory, or will he summon them on the streets to burn down the republic in order to save it?

I don’t know the answers to these questions, of course, but here are my best guesses. Cotton will support keeping Trump in power by force. McConnell will see the situation as an opportunity to make a deal with Biden on substance in exchange for maintaining the Constitution. Roberts will do his duty, because he always has in a pinch. And Tucker? If Rupert Murdoch doesn’t figure out that his best interests aren’t served by an ash heap America, it’s burn, baby, burn.

Nationalism is a feeling, not an idea. It is the sense that every individual is just a small part of a larger community which is the organism that really matters in history. It is the belief that the culture attached to that community is better than anyone else’s, and must be protected at all costs. It ties the lives of individuals to a cause that is bigger than themselves. It can, and often does, serve as a substitute for religion, which largely serves the same purpose.

Because nationalism is not an idea, it cannot be rebutted with logical arguments–only results. The first half of the twentieth century provided us with those in spades. Politicians throughout the world consequently worked very hard after World War II to create institutions that would prevent nationalism from getting out of control again. Liberal democracy, the various institutions associated in one way or another with the UN, the EU, even international communism in its way–all of them were designed to restrain the worst excesses of nationalism. They have worked pretty well, on the whole; the world has become a more peaceful place, to the benefit of everyone.

But time passes, and people forget. Steve Bannon somehow views the thirties as being some sort of golden age. Trump’s “America First” mantra is a rejection of internationalist institutions. Revisionist states are on the prowl. The world is getting more dangerous.

Where are we going with this? American support of international institutions is vital if they are to survive in any meaningful way. If Biden wins, the Trump era will probably be viewed as an outlier in the long run. If Trump wins, heaven help us all.

The question is neatly encapsulated in “man on golf cart;” is Trump a dangerous tyrant, or does he just aspire to play one on TV? Lots of pundits have weighed in on this issue on both sides. Is there a definitive answer?

You don’t have to choose: he can be both, and is. Nobody would question his bona fides as a figure of absurdity, but it is perfectly possible to be a ridiculous dictator–just ask Mussolini. In any event, even if he doesn’t actually aspire to be a tyrant, both events and the people around him could drive him to become one.

To put the issue another way, if you asked Trump if he objected more to being called a fascist than a loser, what do you think he would say? Exactly! Regardless of what he might actually want in his heart of hearts, he will burn down half of the country if that’s what it takes to be recognized as the unquestioned leader of the remaining half.

For better or worse, nationalism is about the feeling that each individual is just a small part of a much larger cultural whole, and that it is the condition of the whole relative to the rest of an alien and hostile world that ultimately matters. Does Trump meet that standard?

Of course not, for two reasons. First, while it is obviously not uncommon for nationalists to reject and even demonize small racial, ethnic, or religious minorities within their country, Trump only attempts to represent about 40 percent of Americans. You can’t be a real nationalist if you despise most of your countrymen. Second, as we all know, he is purely in it for himself, and his economic policies have consistently favored wealthy businessmen over the mass of average citizens.

The bottom line is that America means nothing to Trump. He simply uses the flag like a used car salesman to sell himself.

The Russian government obviously poisoned Navalny. They’re barely trying to hide it. The continued use of the same obscure poison is a clear message to Putin’s opponents–we’re coming for you, and you can’t stop us.

Trump, as you would expect, has been silent on the issue. If he did actually respond, he would probably say that the 400 pound guy on his bed might be responsible, or that America poisons its enemies, too.

American exceptionalism, indeed.

Life in the time of Trump.

Do black lives matter less?

To a certain kind of guy

That’s the truth, I guess.

He’s resolved to cling to power

Regardless of the cost.

Dictatorship if he should win.

A graveyard if he lost.

Trump and Fox News predictably have an exaggerated view of what constitutes self-defense for right-wing militia types. First, it was the Missouri couple pointing guns at peaceful protesters in the street; then, the teenager with the assault rifle killing two people in Kenosha; finally, Trump saying that shooting pepper spray and paint at protesters is perfectly OK.

Where does this end? With a cycle of massacres and martyrs on both sides if it doesn’t stop now.

The pandemic has made it clear: in addition to providing an education, public school is a form of day care that is essential for the workings of the American economy. We accept taxpayer funding for public schools because they contribute to the well-being of all of society, including people without children. What, then, is the principled objection to providing subsidized day care for smaller children?

Biden is carrying forward what amounts to a Warren plan on this subject. While many of Warren’s plans were, in my opinion, fundamentally flawed, I would be willing to pay higher taxes to implement this one.

Trump tells us that we have to re-elect him because he’s a strong man who will keep us safe in a dangerous world. Really? Let’s look at the record:

1. THE VIRUS: 180,000 dead and counting. He belittled the problem, made wearing masks a culture war issue, demanded that states open up before they were ready, and concluded by saying “It is what it is.” As far as he’s concerned, the pandemic is over, and it’s time to move on.
2. NATURAL DISASTERS: Trump doesn’t believe in climate change. Instead of providing California with help, he dismisses the wildfire problem as a simple matter of state and local land management. He threw paper towels to the desperate people of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. Not exactly a stellar record.
3. CRIME: Having proclaimed that “he alone” could reduce violent crime in this country, he has predictably done nothing. Murders are up this year in most large American cities. That isn’t really his fault, but he said it was on him, so let’s take him up on it.
4. EXTERNAL THREATS: Iran is closer to getting a nuclear weapon thanks to his decision to withdraw from Obama’s agreement. His efforts to charm Kim have come to nothing. He has terminated, or is in the process of terminating. several arms control agreements with Russia; an arms race consequently looms. Our allies no longer support us, and don’t believe a word he says. The Chinese military threat has increased in the South China Sea.
5. THE ECONOMY AND THE WELFARE STATE: The recession speaks for itself, and he has continued to try to dismantle Obamacare through legislative and legal means.

Doesn’t exactly make you feel safe, does it?

As at the convention, Biden made the speech he needed to make, this time on protests and violence. Trump, for his part, made it clear that he condones violence from his supporters. Having been fully educated by the candidates, the American public must now choose a side on this issue.

In the meantime, here are two points that Biden really needs to emphasize:

1. RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE: Minimum wage increases are popular with the general public because they don’t look like a form of welfare, even though that is exactly what they are. Trump claims to speak for working people, but he doesn’t support them on this issue. Do reactionary workers really love Jesus and guns so much that they will turn down a large wage increase? Let’s find out.
2. SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY: The elderly are used to hearing Democrats talk in general terms about GOP cuts to Social Security and Medicare, so they generally pay them no mind. In this election, however, Biden actually has a plan to address the looming funding crisis, while Trump’s payroll tax cut will make things worse. Biden should make this a centerpiece of his pitch to seniors, because Trump has no answer for it, and it matters–a lot.

Left to his own devices, Donald Trump would almost certainly make a deal with the Democrats for a huge stimulus. After all, he doesn’t care about the deficit; he wants to run for re-election backed by a roaring economy. Nothing other than winning in November matters to him in the slightest.

But being unmoored from ideology frequently means that he follows the advice of the last person he sees– often, Meadows. Meadows is a CL. He hates spending and deficits. He has apparently persuaded Trump against all logic that holding the line on spending in a recession and a pandemic is a political winner.

The recovery is stalling, and may even go into reverse thanks to the stupidity of the man on golf cart and his henchman. That will cost Trump bigly in November. As a result, we may well be able to thank Meadows for saving us from a second national nightmare.

Trump is clearly behind today. What could happen between now and the election that would change the picture? Here are some possibilities:

1. A V-SHAPED RECOVERY: Sure, and pigs could fly. With the foolish withdrawal of stimulus and the opening of schools, a third wave of the virus is much more likely.
2. A VACCINE: Expect Trump to trumpet something, anything, as a medical miracle ending the virus. That won’t happen before November, either.
3. A WAR: I’ve predicted a war with Iran for years. Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for war has been the one pleasant surprise of his administration. Still, the advantages are obvious, and the possibility can’t be dismissed.
4. AN OCTOBER SURPRISE FROM BARR: He’s certainly capable of generating something out of nothing, but at this point, nobody is going to believe him.
5. A DRAMATIC ESCALATION OF THE VIOLENCE: You could imagine Trump egging on supporters to shoot protesters and then claiming that “he alone” can stop the violence. Too cynical? This is Trump we’re talking about, my friends.
6. VOTE SUPPRESSION: The mail is already an issue. Militia activity around polling places could follow. We have to be ready for anything.