Author: hamilton1788

If, as seems likely, DeSantis cruises to re-election, one of the people he has to thank is . . . Joe Biden! DeSantis declined to cut spending during the worst of the pandemic, hoping that the federal government would bail him out, which it did. As a result of the pandemic relief bill, he had plenty of money to pay state employees, maintain service levels, and even cut taxes. Don’t expect him to give the president any credit for it, though.

Conversely, if you’re pissed off about the performance of the federal government, and you’re represented in Congress by a conservative Republican, what are you going to do? You might stay at home, or even vote for his opponent, if you really want to show how unhappy you are. That helps the Democrats, even if they are arguably responsible for the current unsatisfactory (in your eyes) state of affairs.

It is a paradox, to be sure.

He’s running away! And he’s been reduced to buying weapons systems from Iran and North Korea! Isn’t that pathetic?

Poor little guy! Who would have guessed that those woke warriors from Ukraine would actually stand up to him? Not Ted Cruz and Tucker Carlson–that’s for sure.

Right-wingers who realize they benefit from the anti-democratic features of our Constitution are fond of saying that America is a republic, not a democracy. Is that true? And is the question even meaningful?

Let’s take a brief stroll through American history:

1. The Founding Fathers were very progressive for their day, when compared with political leaders in Europe, but they were not democrats.
2. But by 1830 or so, due to the easy availability of real property and ideological trends, virtually every white American man had the vote.
3. The right was extended to blacks in the Fifteenth Amendment.
4. Women won the right to vote in the Nineteenth Amendment in 1920.
5. The age limit on voting was lowered to 18 in the Twenty-sixth Amendment in 1971.

The bottom line here is that the Founding Fathers’ views of democracy, at least as they apply to voting rights, are not relevant to a contemporary discussion of our political system, and have not been so for many years. Like it or not, America is both a democracy and a republic.

Of course, there are other anti-democratic features in the Constitution, most of which have the support of the left as well as the right. I will discuss these in a future post.

As we know, the combination of the pandemic and a recovery that was faster and stronger than anticipated led to widespread labor shortages. Businesses responded to the shortages by increasing wages, raising prices, and persuading consumers to live with a lower level of service. As a result, profits are at a very high level in spite of the turbulence, and inflation has become a serious issue.

By now, both businesses and consumers have had time to adjust to the new normal. Barring some new and horrible variant of the virus, the workforce isn’t going to shrink again. That means wage increases are going to slow, which in turn means inflation should continue to decline in the absence of new shocks with commodity prices.

On the old Russian tyrant named Vlad.

His Ukrainian venture’s gone bad.

He insists all is well,

But his plan’s shot to hell,

And I can’t say that makes me feel bad.

We all know what a “MAGA Republican” looks like–he’s the guy who wants to burn it down. He wants to give Donald Trump unlimited power to impose a reactionary agenda on America regardless of what the majority of Americans think, because, after all, tens of millions of them are not “real Americans.” Lying about the 2020 election and taking steps to rig the 2024 contest are just steps in getting from Point A to Point B.

As Biden correctly noted, many Republicans are not “MAGA Republicans” by this definition. How should we deal with the evil kind? There are two broad choices:

1. Try to split the “MAGA Republicans” from the rest; or
2. Identify the OK kind of Republicans as “MAGA Republican” enablers, and call on the electorate to reject them both in order to save American liberal democracy.

Biden started his speech by drawing a clear distinction between “MAGAs” and others, which is consistent with #1, but he subsequently implied that anyone who rejects the Democrats’ position on a variety of controversial substantive issues is a “MAGA,” which is consistent with #2, but makes the “MAGA” distinction irrelevant.

The two alternatives are mutually exclusive. Making both arguments at the same time makes no sense. The Democrats need to either tone down the rhetoric and make concessions to relatively moderate Republicans in order to save liberal democracy, or ramp up the pressure and call the entire GOP a threat to the system in order to drive up turnout and elect more Democrats.

As David Stockman later ruefully admitted, the Reagan tax cut was supposed to be just the first step in a “starve the beast” campaign; the second step, massive spending cuts, would be driven by a soaring deficit. It didn’t happen. Instead, the stimulus created by the tax cuts somewhat mitigated the impacts of the Volcker interest rate increases, and when interest rates were finally eased, it was morning in America. The GOP has never gotten over it.

Liz Truss is proposing to cut taxes and provide relief from rising energy prices at the same time. In effect, she wants to do what Reagan did without the promise of spending cuts. Unfortunately, the UK is not conspicuously overtaxed, so there is no reason to believe the tax cut will lead to some sort of growth explosion; there is plenty of precedent in this country after the Reagan years for that. In addition, the UK relies more heavily on imports for goods than we do. As a result, the tax cut will lead to higher demand and a falling pound, which will lead to increased inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise, which in short order will cause . . . stagflation.

The British monarch is intended to be a living, breathing, unifying symbol–a sort of human Union Jack. As anyone who has watched “The Crown” knows, even though it comes with plenty of perks, it is a difficult job, because to do it right, you have to give up your right to live and think outside a very small box. Some members of the family can’t tolerate the limitations of the box, and suffer for it. Others learn to accept the tradeoffs and are more successful.

Elizabeth was a success. I think it helped that she was young and inexperienced when she became queen; she had the ability to grow into, and to some extent define, the job, and she didn’t have a record that would offend anyone. Charles is in the exact opposite position. He knows the role perfectly well, but he also has a lengthy record that does not exactly inspire confidence.

My guess is that he will be OK. The UK is a very different place than it was in the early years of Elizabeth’s reign, so Charles’ propensity for running his mouth will probably be met with a tolerant shrug, not a glare of disapproval.

Biden’s legal authority to extinguish student debt, by all accounts, is open to question, so you can be sure the question will be asked. Under normal circumstances, the judicial system would hold that the issue is not subject to challenge because nobody has a sufficient interest to establish standing. The current Supreme Court has shown on multiple occasions, however, that it has no regard for such niceties. You have to assume that Alito, Thomas, and the rest of the reactionary crew are just dying to deliver another stinging defeat to the administration. If that happens, what’s next? Will the disappointed debtors take it out on Biden or the GOP?

It will be the fault of the vast right-wing conspiracy, but my guess is that they will blame Biden. Fortunately, it will be after the midterms.

The government didn’t pay my mortgage. Why should it pass student debt to the taxpayers as a whole? What is it about student debt that makes it so special?

Both student loans and mortgages are contracts in which the parties voluntarily entered into obligations in the hope of profiting in the long run. In neither case is that profit assured. You can argue, of course, that society identifies higher education as the cornerstone of the American dream, but you could say the same thing about home ownership. You can also argue that it is appropriate for the taxpayer to pay for higher education because it leads to economic growth, to the benefit of everyone, but home ownership supposedly leads to a more stable, law-abiding, and affluent society, as well.

The differences between the two kinds of debt are not significant enough to make a persuasive case, at least for me. If the objective here is simply compassion, it should be reserved for the truly needy, not the whiny needy.

Due to relatively low turnout, midterm elections are primarily about base mobilization, not attracting uncommitted voters. That is not to say, however, that swing votes do not matter. The best way to attract them is through the use of wedge issues.

The principal GOP wedge issues are:

1. Donald Trump and January 6;
2. Abortion; and
3. Climate change.

The Democrats have been trying to split the insurrectionist wing of the GOP away from the rest of the party for the last two years. Biden’s “MAGA Republicans” speech, for better or worse, was just the last of these efforts. Abortion is definitely splitting “pro-life” realos from fundis. Finally, some GOP voters are starting to accept that climate change is a real thing. It may be possible to split them from the mainstream in some locations.

If the Democrats have any sense, they will be focusing on these issues during the campaign.

Marginal tax rates in the UK are slightly higher than they are in the US. That makes sense, since the UK has a more comprehensive welfare state than we do, even after years of Conservative government. There isn’t a glaring disparity that clearly calls for taxpayer relief.

But Liz Truss clearly wants a big tax cut at a time when inflation and the deficit are uncomfortably high, interest rates are rising, and the pound is plummeting. If she gets what she wants, the increased demand (largely for imported products from countries with whom she is effectively threatening a trade war) will make these problems worse. Pouring gas on the fire will result in the stagflation of ’79, not morning in the UK.

By all accounts, Liz Truss does her best to look and sound like Margaret Thatcher. Tax cuts, deregulation, and bashing unions and the EU will be the order of the day.

The problem is that Truss is 40 years too late. There is nothing left to privatize–Thatcher and her successors took care of that. There are no domineering unions–crushing them was Thatcher’s biggest accomplishment. Public investment was squashed during the Cameron/Osborne years. And picking fights and starting trade wars with your closest and most important partner doesn’t sound like a great idea at a time of crisis unless you are only interested in creating distractions–not solving problems.

I just don’t see how this is going to work. Unless Truss does a U-turn (the one her role model famously refused to do) very early in her tenure, all hell is going to break loose in the UK. The political consequences of this will be, at an absolute minimum, the loss of virtually every Conservative seat in areas that were supposed to be “levelled up” and the emboldening of the SNP.

But cheer up, UK readers: at least you have stumbled on the solution to your immigration problem. Who is going to want to live in the UK under these conditions?

On the 46th President Joe.

The election has two months to go.

Trump is helping him out

But the outcome’s in doubt.

It will be a cliffhanger, you know.

The good news is that wages have risen significantly as a result of the hot economy and corresponding labor shortages. The bad news is that the increased costs have all been passed on to consumers, including workers, in the form of higher prices. The net gain for labor has been minimal to nonexistent.

The message here, as I predicted years ago, is that minimum wage increases do not work in the absence of some measure of government constraint on profits or price increases. Using the tax system and spending programs to redistribute wealth is a better way to help struggling workers than simply pushing up wages.