Under ordinary conditions, employment figures are an excellent proxy for levels of misery. These are not ordinary conditions, however; as a result of the enhanced federal UI benefits, it is possible to maintain a decent standard of living without a job, at least in blue states and through September. Millions of elderly workers may also have decided to retire in lieu of working through the pandemic. Does it make sense, therefore, to pay so much attention to the employment numbers, at least for now?
No. GDP and wage growth more accurately describe the actual state of the nation until the enhanced benefits expire. Keep your eyes on them for now.