(Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Blinken have come to the Oval Office to talk about Afghanistan. Harris is also there, of course)
B: I’m on the verge of announcing my decision on Afghanistan, but I thought we could run through the pro and con arguments one more time. Lloyd, you have the remain position. Why should we stay?
A: Because we would lose credibility with the world if we don’t. Our national word won’t mean anything anymore if we abandon our friends.
B: We got out of Vietnam and Iraq, and people still take us seriously. Having the world’s best military and biggest economy will do that for you. Next?
A: We can’t be sure the Taliban won’t permit terrorists on their soil.
B: Are you more worried about Afghanistan than you are Yemen and parts of Africa? Is Afghanistan somehow special there?
A: Not really.
B: Next?
A: No one believes the Afghan government will survive without our support. There will be a bloodbath. Women will lose all their rights. Afghanistan will go back to the Stone Age.
B: That’s a legitimate concern, to be sure, but I don’t think America can afford to underwrite human rights in Afghanistan forever. Do you think the government will be better positioned to defend itself if we stay for, say, another year?
A: Honestly, no.
B: I agree. We either stay forever or get out now. Next?
A: The political fallout will be horrible. The GOP will say you lost Afghanistan, and that you’re soft on terrorism.
B: But we’re just implementing an agreement that Trump negotiated. Pompeo has applauded me for following it.
A: Mitch hasn’t, and the rest of the GOP will follow him.
B: I’m a big boy. I can take the criticism. That’s part of the job. Next?
A: It’s a matter of costs and benefits. The cost of keeping the troops there isn’t that great. It’s better than watching the video of the Taliban parade in Kabul.
B: That’s where I have to engage the other side. How many casualties are we suffering in Afghanistan today?
BL: This year? None. Last year? Nine dead–one in combat.
B: That’s less deaths than we have in an average domestic mass shooting. How much money are we spending?
BL: About fifty billion a year.
B: Sounds like a rounding error in the budget. Do we have a better use for the troops?
BL: Not my department.
B: Why should we leave?
BL: Because Afghanistan isn’t objectively important enough to stay indefinitely, and things will never get any better. Postponing the inevitable accomplishes nothing.
B: What about the argument that the cost of staying is minimal, and the risks of leaving are high?
BL: Fifty billion a year isn’t chickenfeed. We could use that money for something more useful. We can defend ourselves against terrorists in other ways.
B: What do we say when people accuse us of selling out Afghan women and children, and betraying our friends?
BL: The Taliban promised not to oppress women. They won’t get any aid from us if they do. We’re taking them at their word.
B: I’m afraid that’s going to sound like malarkey to most Americans.
BL: It’s the best we’ve got. Basically, most of the country is sick of the war and wants the troops to come home, regardless of the costs to the Afghans. I think Trump read the room correctly on that one. Make it clear that you’re following his decision, and the fallout will be tolerable.
B: I think you’re right. Prepare the announcement that we’re leaving no later than 9/11.
(They leave)