During the Cold War, the US generally supported Pakistan against the claims of Soviet-leaning India. But the Cold War ended, Islamic terrorism emerged as a major problem for the West, and America’s relations with Pakistan changed. The Pakistani military consistently played a double game in Afghanistan, frustrating presidents of both parties. The Afghan war went on and on, inconclusively. And China started to rise.
The Pakistani military will have “won” the Afghan war after our withdrawal in a matter of months. This “victory” will leave the country far more vulnerable to Islamic militants than it was before. America is now primarily concerned about Chinese aggression, and is in the process of creating a loose alliance with India. The Chinese, for their part, are becoming the dominant power in this part of the world.
What does this mean? That Pakistan, with all of its volatility, poor government, nuclear weapons, and vulnerability to Islamic groups, will be China’s problem, not ours. Given China’s physical proximity and ongoing concerns about Islamic terrorism, it is far more vulnerable to Pakistani instability than we ever were. So good luck with your new problem, guys.