It will come as no surprise to serious observers that the implementation of Brexit is not proceeding smoothly. Among other things, the UK government is flirting with reneging on the required soft Irish Sea border with the EU, and the predicted paperwork nightmare is slowing trade and driving up costs.
Fortunately for BoJo, the pandemic is putting these issues in the shade, but that will not last forever. Then what? The newly freed UK will have to deal with the following problems:
- LOST GDP: At some point, the British public will start to notice that growth is being stunted as a result of Brexit. Growth isn’t everything, but it certainly isn’t nothing.
- CONFLICTING VISIONS AMONG THE BREXITEERS: Brexit was sold to liberals as an opportunity to turn London into Singapore-on-Thames: an agile, minimal state open to engagement and investment with the entire world. Unfortunately, most Leave supporters saw the referendum as a means to be protected from the same forces of change and creative destruction that are so embraced by liberals. The two visions are mutually exclusive. Something is going to give.
- SCOTTISH NATIONALISM: The Scots have a strong argument after Brexit and the last election that the UK government no longer speaks for them. There is little doubt that a second independence referendum would pass if it were held today. It won’t be, but the resulting friction will be an ongoing theme of the current administration.
How can these issues be resolved? I will throw out some ideas in two future posts.