Observations on proposals from most of the GOP presidential candidates to raise the retirement age:
1. This issue is a fault line dividing the Pro-Business Pragmatists from the Reactionaries that is completely consistent with the more obvious one on immigration. PBPs support both raising the retirement age and additional immigration because they need the largest possible workforce to keep wages down. Reactionaries have no interest in suppressing wages, and do not view government programs that redistribute wealth as bad so long as the primary beneficiaries of those programs are hard-working, God-fearing, white, real Americans like themselves (for the same reason, don’t expect Reactionaries to support cuts in agricultural subsidies). This could become a significant issue in the campaign if Donald Trump maintains his position in the polls and adheres to the Reactionary line (if, on the other hand, Huckabee is the only candidate opposing Social Security cuts, he can be ignored).
2. If the plan is for a slow, phased-in increase in the retirement age, it is too late, because the boomers are already starting to leave the workforce. From a PBP perspective, this proposal should have been made and approved at least ten years ago.
3. Notwithstanding #2, the impacts of the Great Recession on the nest eggs of many boomers may require them to continue working against their wishes, which will further the PBP agenda without the need for any Social Security “reforms.”
4. On the whole, then, the current proposals would appear to come with substantial political risk, but offer few practical rewards.