GLENDOWER: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR: Why, so can I, or so can any man.
But will they come when you do call them?
From Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part I
After Ted’s victory in Iowa, he called for the continuing support of three groups: conservative Christians (Reactionaries, in my terminology); Tea Party Republicans (Conservative Libertarians); and “Reagan Democrats” (a species that no longer exists–they have long since become Reactionaries). The striking thing about this coalition is how narrow it is; it can’t comprise more than half of the GOP, to say nothing of the much larger electorate in the general election. Most notably, there was no shout out to business interests, who have always been the bedrock of the GOP.
If Cruz is serious about winning, he must believe one of two things:
- There is an enormous pool of disaffected evangelicals who will rise to fight under his banner in both the primaries and the general election. New Hampshire will give us a better idea if this is true or not, but so far, I have seen no evidence of it (i.e., like Glendower’s spirits, they won’t come when called).
- He can win the GOP nomination if he wins the states with large numbers of evangelicals and Trump and Rubio split the rest. This is a possibility; it is, in fact, my prediction, but you wouldn’t want to bet the ranch on it, because there are too many things that could go wrong. In order to win the general election, he would then have to benefit from some sort of national catastrophe.
If I were Cruz, I would be furiously sucking up to businessmen at this point in order to expand my base, but that doesn’t appear to be part of his DNA–at least not in public.
One final suggestion to Cruz for a campaign slogan: “God built this.” Catchy, no?