The Brexit deal is done–just a few hours before Christmas. Here is my evaluation of it:
- From the EU’s perspective, the most important issue was to prevent the British from deviating substantially from EU rules. That will be accomplished through an arbitration process. The UK could, of course, try to ignore or sabotage the tribunal (think the US with the WTO here), but if it does, the EU can impose tariffs. It’s hard to see any gain for the UK here.
- The agreement doesn’t include services, which means hard times for the City.
- The soft border in the Irish Sea will remain. That’s not a good outcome if you think Northern Ireland is an integral part of the UK.
- New paperwork requirements will cost time and money for both sides.
It’s hard for me to see how the UK will be better off with this deal in place. But, hey, it’s great if you’re a British fisherman!