A number of left-leaning commentators, most notably on Politico, are trying to reassure us that there will be no Trump comeback in 2024. There are two reasons given for this: there is no precedent in anyone’s memory for a former president maintaining any meaningful level of influence; and the GOP will want to move on from a proven loser with unsavory, undemocratic views. Joe McCarthy and George Wallace disappeared from the national stage; he will, too. Are they right?
Maybe, but I’m not as confident as they are. Trump has a hold on the reactionary base unlike any other, as evidenced by his vote total, even though he lost. The MSM are Trump co-dependents; keeping him alive and relevant would be good for business. The country is more polarized than it has been since the sixties–the 1860s. And, of course, he has every reason to keep his options open, as I’ve noted in several previous posts.
Trump’s age and health may keep him from running when it is all said and done. Given the complete lack of courage and principle shown by virtually all of his potential opponents, however, the possibility of a primary challenge is unlikely to deter him. I can’t imagine anyone other than a CD governor taking him on, and I can’t see him losing to someone on the extreme left of his party. His legal problems will not influence his admirers in the slightest. In short, if he is ready, willing, and able to run when 2023 rolls around, he will be the frontrunner by a large margin.