The World After Trump: Israel

For Netanyahu, the Trump administration was the gift that kept on giving. Move the embassy to Jerusalem? Check. Recognize the annexation of the Golan Heights? Yes, sir! “Mediate” by applying pressure to the Palestinians? We’re on it. Tear up the Iran deal? But of course. Work out deals for recognition by Arab countries? You can count on us! Acquiesce to settlements? Coming right up!

Bibi, of course, was only too happy to reciprocate. The identification of the Israeli and American right is now complete.

Well, the party’s over, and the hangover is about to start. Biden himself is too moderate to make any kind of break with the Israeli government, but there are plenty of people in his party who have come to despise Israel for multiple reasons. That will be a big problem for both sides.

Biden isn’t going to move the embassy back, and I don’t expect him to say much about the Golan Heights. He’s not going to do anything to stop the Israelis from fighting a low intensity war against Iran in Syria. But he will return the US to its traditional role of being an independent mediator with the Palestinians, and he will try to recreate the nuclear deal, although that will be difficult, in light of changed circumstances. They won’t erect any statues of him in Tel Aviv.