The Democrats won a crushing victory as a result of the Great Recession in 2008. Over 200,000 deaths, a sharp recession, and a mediocre recovery arising from a pandemic produced mixed results in 2020. Why the difference?
Three reasons:
- THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS WERE DIFFERENT, AND LESS WIDELY FELT: Everyone, including the wealthy, experienced the impacts of the Great Recession, which was in full swing at the time of the election. Unemployment was skyrocketing, home prices fell, and markets collapsed. This time, the markets, after some initial softness, did not collapse; some people and companies actually made money. Federal legislation eased the pain for the unemployed, and the economy was improving at the time of the election. As a result, Trump received credit, not blame, for the economy.
- TRUMP WASN’T BLAMED FOR THE PANDEMIC BY MOST SWING VOTERS: Bush and the GOP were widely perceived as being responsible for the Great Recession. No matter how poor his response was, no one could say that Trump caused the virus.
- ONWARD, CHRISTIAN SOLDIERS: Gay marriage and bathroom bills weren’t even on the horizon in 2008. The culture wars have gotten much more intense since then; today, Christians look at the future and see political correctness as an existential threat. Their support for liberal democracy can no longer be taken for granted.