Longtime viewers of this blog (to the extent there are any) will be aware that I posted a column entitled “On the Factions Within the Republican Party” back in July. This column was the foundation of much of what has appeared here in the last six months. To recapitulate briefly, I have identified four different ideological strains within the GOP, which are as follows:
- Christian Democrats (CDs), who are willing to support efforts to increase the size of the federal government in order to help the needy so long as the legislation in question maintains the existing hierarchy and moral standards and is as market-friendly as possible;
- Pro-Business Pragmatists (PBPs), who believe that taxes and regulations on business should be kept to an absolute minimum, but who will support increases in federal power that serve their interest (subsidies; tax preferences; bailouts; etc.) PBPs typically take little interest in other issues involving the size of the federal government and are willing to make deals with the other factions on these matters, and even Democrats where necessary, to get what they really want.
- Reactionaries, who are not opposed to government programs which maintain and enhance traditional hierarchies and values and support “their kind of people” (i.e., hard working white Christians), but believe the thrust of government since the New Deal has been to undermine traditional values. Reactionaries consequently support Social Security, Medicare, farm supports, and protectionism, but oppose other forms of redistribution which are perceived to benefit people who are not “real Americans,” and loathe illegal immigration.
- Conservative Libertarians (CLs) want to reduce the size of the federal government, period. They decry federal efforts to support business as “crony capitalism.”
While the Reactionary faction is clearly the largest of the four, and has grown markedly in the last eight years, none commands a majority within the party, which means the nominee must represent a coalition of at least two of the factions. In the recent past, the most popular coalitions have been the following:
- The Romney Coalition, made up of CDs and PBPs. Romney Coalition candidates typically are willing to take actions to grow the federal government to support the needy (think “compassionate conservatism”), but also support tax cuts and deregulation for business.
- The Reagan Coalition, consisting of Reactionaries and PBPs. Reagan Coalition candidates support tax cuts and deregulation, but also emphasize limiting immigration and spending on social programs and banning abortion.
There are two other potential coalitions that I will address below.
So how do the GOP candidates fit within this framework? Consider the following:
- Rubio, Christie, Kasich, and Bush are all Romney Coalition candidates. All of them support big tax cuts for the rich, deregulation of business, and limits on entitlement programs (all PBP priorities), but all of them pay at least lip service to the needs of the poor. They are viewed as “establishment” candidates because the last two GOP presidents (Bush 41 and 43) represented this coalition.
- Trump is a Reagan Coalition candidate. While his platform includes the usual PBP-friendly proposals for tax cuts and deregulation, he has placed more emphasis on limiting immigration and potential protectionist actions, both of which are concessions to the Reactionaries that do not serve the interest of the PBPs. He also does not support entitlement cuts, another PBP priority. It is for that reason that he is viewed with suspicion by the GOP intellectual leadership.
- Cruz appeals to the Reactionaries and the CLs; the logical name for this grouping is the Goldwater Coalition. He takes the CL position on economic/fiscal issues and the Reactionary position on social issues. The last time a Goldwater Coalition candidate was the nominee was, of course, 1964.
The final potential coalition could be called the Douthat Coalition, since he is the only person I know who advocates for it; no actual candidates have embraced it. The Douthat Coalition would include CDs and Reactionaries; it would recommend limits on immigration (a Reactionary priority), anti-abortion legislation (a priority for both factions), and tax cuts and social programs targeted towards poor working people in an effort to appeal to the disaffected white working class.
Only one of the Romney Coalition candidates will survive the early primaries. The battle of the coalitions from that point forward should be fascinating.
One final note: there has been a lot of discussion recently about a deconstruction of the GOP which divides the party into factions based on how “conservative” they are. Personally, I find this useless, because it doesn’t identify what a “conservative” idea is, or why the factions are at war with each other over issues like bailouts and immigration. The reality is that the factions actually have different ideologies; their disagreements are not limited to tactics.