If, as I suspect, the Democrats win a decisive victory in November, a civil war will break out almost immediately between the PBP and Reactionary factions of the Republican Party. Mourning for their dead tax cuts, the PBPs will put the blame for the defeat on Trump’s affinity for red meat tweets and lack of interest in wooing centrist voters; the Reactionaries, for their part, will say that Trump sucked up too much to plutocrats, and will call for an economic agenda that is more friendly to white Christian workers. McConnell will attempt to bridge the gap by declaring war on the new administration. It will be 2009 all over again, but with fewer Democrats in the Senate.
But a second, less publicized civil war will also be fought between two different groups within the Reactionary faction. The more ambitious and pragmatic Reactionaries will be aware of Trump’s flaws and will want to put the man on golf cart in the rear view mirror as soon as possible. A large percentage of the extreme right, however, will view the Trump presidency as a sort of reactionary Brigadoon that was undeservedly destroyed by the MSM and the pandemic. A new Lost Cause, if you will. Trump, of course, will do everything he can to encourage this line of thinking as he tweets furiously from his exile at Mar-a-Lago, and the MSM will continue to treat him as an evil rock star, which won’t help.
Will Trump still be the leader of the GOP in 2024? The odds say no, given his age, failures, and legal problems, but it isn’t impossible. One thing is for sure: the poison of his influence will be felt for years to come.