Ross Douthat told us repeatedly in 2016 that Donald Trump wouldn’t be the Republican nominee, so it would be reasonable to take his latest predictions with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that he thinks that Trump doesn’t have what it takes to launch a coup if he loses. Is Douthat correct, or should we be worried?
Let’s deconstruct his argument. It really has two parts:
- Trump has no record of being able to mobilize large numbers of people to perform illegal acts. To use my words, he’s a man on golf cart, not a man on horseback; and
- The public–even extreme conservatives–won’t respond to him if he tries it.
My reactions are as follows:
- Yes, Trump is just a man on golf cart under normal circumstances. He wants and needs adulation more than power. Faced with an existential and immediate threat to his identity as a winner, however, he is capable of doing just about anything. His complaints about the DOJ’s failure to prosecute Clinton, Biden, and Obama are just the beginning. I don’t have any confidence that our usually easygoing strongman will just fade away under these altered conditions. He’s going to be laser focused on staying in power to a degree we haven’t seen before.
- My best guess is that demonstrations on his behalf will be relatively sporadic. I could be wrong about that, however. Trump’s extreme right wing supporters are being told over and over again by Fox News and talk radio that life as they know it will end if Biden wins in November. Some of them are in power at the state and local levels, and many of them are armed. Fears about what they will do are perfectly realistic.
My prediction is that Trump will demand an end to the counting of votes at some point on November 4 if a red mirage is still in place at the time. There will be lawsuits filed on his behalf and Brooks Brothers riots to that end in countless jurisdictions. Trump’s ultimate objective will be to get the Supreme Court to keep him in office. At some point, the Court will, in fact, be forced to confront the issues presented by the election, even if those issues are legally frivolous, which is quite likely.
What kinds of legal questions will arise, and what will happen with them? I will address those topics in my next post.