On the Politics of the Skinny Bill

Is the glass half full or half empty? That is the essence of the skinny bill question.

Six weeks ago, this was a matter of the utmost importance. McConnell’s theory was that offering $300 per week would be perceived as the glass half full by grateful unemployed workers, and that the corresponding stimulus would help the Trump re-election campaign. The Democrats assumed that the public would see $300 per week as a 50 percent cut, and had no interest in assisting the Trump campaign. They were only willing to provide additional stimulus if it would make a meaningful difference in the lives of unemployed workers, and if aid could also be provided to reeling state and local governments.

Today, the issue has less political significance, because the early voting process has already started in many states, and it would take several weeks for state unemployment bureaucracies to adjust to the new system. There would have been no Election Day stimulus even if the bill had somehow advanced in the Senate. Trump and the GOP will have to settle for what they have.

Don’t be surprised if this comes up again after the election, when the politics are less toxic. There will still be millions of unemployed workers, and they will still need help.