Trump is clearly behind today. What could happen between now and the election that would change the picture? Here are some possibilities:
- A V-SHAPED RECOVERY: Sure, and pigs could fly. With the foolish withdrawal of stimulus and the opening of schools, a third wave of the virus is much more likely.
- A VACCINE: Expect Trump to trumpet something, anything, as a medical miracle ending the virus. That won’t happen before November, either.
- A WAR: I’ve predicted a war with Iran for years. Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for war has been the one pleasant surprise of his administration. Still, the advantages are obvious, and the possibility can’t be dismissed.
- AN OCTOBER SURPRISE FROM BARR: He’s certainly capable of generating something out of nothing, but at this point, nobody is going to believe him.
- A DRAMATIC ESCALATION OF THE VIOLENCE: You could imagine Trump egging on supporters to shoot protesters and then claiming that “he alone” can stop the violence. Too cynical? This is Trump we’re talking about, my friends.
- VOTE SUPPRESSION: The mail is already an issue. Militia activity around polling places could follow. We have to be ready for anything.