I have predicted that Cruz will win Iowa, based on his appeal to evangelicals and his ground game. I’m sticking by my prediction; however, I have also provided a scenario in which Trump prevails, and the polls currently indicate that will happen. If it does, what does that mean for the race as a whole, and for Cruz personally?
It is difficult to imagine a state in which the composition of the electorate is more favorable to Cruz than Iowa. If Trump beats him there, and subsequently wins New Hampshire by a large margin (which is likely to happen regardless of the vote in Iowa), who is going to stop him, and where?
If you’re an optimist, you probably think that the establishment will agree on a single candidate immediately after New Hampshire. I doubt it, for the following reasons:
- It is unlikely that there will be a clear cut Romney Coalition frontrunner after New Hampshire, based on the latest polls;
- At least three candidates have enough money to prolong the race indefinitely;
- The chances that the Cruz and his counterestablishment will suddenly reach an agreement with the traditional establishment to support a single non-Trump candidate on short notice are very poor; and
- Even if they did, there is no guarantee that the voters would follow them. Do you think a disappointed Cruz voter would naturally gravitate to Rubio instead of Trump? I don’t.
In short, I hate to be apocalyptic about it, but I think Trump sweeps to the nomination if he wins Iowa.
For Ted personally, if he loses, he’ll be so deep in the wilderness he’ll need a compass to get out. He has staked his entire political future on becoming President. He has alienated essentially everyone in Congress for the purpose of positioning himself in this election. Look for him to serve out the remainder of his term and then look for a different job.